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2.
Consistent estimators of change and state becomes an issue when sample data come from a mix of permanent and temporary observation units. A joint maximum likelihood estimator of state and change creates estimates of state that depend on antecedent viz. posterior survey results and may differ from estimates of state derived from a single-date analysis of the sample data. A constrained estimator of change in relative categorical frequencies that eliminates this potential inconsistency is proposed and a model based estimator of their sampling variance is developed. The performance of the constrained estimator is quantified against six criteria and a joint maximum likelihood estimator in simulated sampling from 15 populations with three combinations of permanent and temporary samples, four to six categorical class attributes, and constant size between sampling dates. Bias of the constrained estimators was negligible but larger than for joint maximum likelihood estimators. Mean absolute deviations and variances of constrained estimators were generally at par with the joint estimators. Constrained estimators of root mean square errors and achieved coverage of nominal confidence intervals of constrained estimators were occasionally better. A generalized variance function for the constrained estimates of change is provided as a computational shortcut. 相似文献
3.
Graef F Schmidt G Schröder W Stachow U 《Environmental monitoring and assessment》2005,108(1-3):189-203
A representative environmental monitoring network at the regional scale cannot use raster-based or random sampling designs, but requires a stratified sampling procedure integrating different information layers, and it has to occur in ecologically differing homogeneous regions (ecoregions). These we have determined using a set of spatial strata with ecological variables which we analysed with classification and regression trees (CART). We present a framework for environmental monitoring, that covers different scales, and we transfer the framework to a potential GMO (genetically modified organisms) monitoring network. We use ecoregion and other environmental strata together with existing environmental monitoring networks to determine GMO monitoring sites more precisely. 相似文献
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Christine Willekes Frans J. M. E. Roumen MD PhD Anne-Marie W. van Elsacker-Niele Harro T. Weiland Christl Vermey-Keers Johan H. J. M. van Krieken Christine E. M. de Die-Smulders Guus J. H. Hamers Gerrie P. M. Vaes-Peters 《黑龙江环境通报》1994,14(3):181-185
In a case of hydrops fetalis, serological examination showed a recent maternal human parvovirus B19 infection. Amniocentesis revealed a unique unbalanced translocation between chromosomes 3 and 11 of the fetus. The mother proved to have a balanced reciprocal translocation between chromosomes 3 and 11. A grossly macerated hydropic male fetus was delivered with a flat nose and low implanted deformed ears. Histopathological examination revealed nuclear inclusion bodies in fetal erythroid cells, confirming human parvovirus B19 infection. Parvovirus B19 DNA was demonstrated by in situ hybridization in the nuclei of heart muscle cells. Our finding of two different disorders in one case illustrates the importance of a complete evaluation of every case of hydrops fetalis, especially concerning counselling on the outcome of future pregnancies. The human parvovirus B19 infection will not recur due to the acquired immunity of the mother, whereas the balanced reciprocal translocation will endanger future pregnancies. 相似文献
6.
Hans Andersson Karin Larsén Carl-Johan Lagcrkvist Chrisitian Andersson Frcdrik Blad Johan Samuelsson Per Skaargren 《Ambio-人类环境杂志》2005,34(4):377-381
本文表明农场主之间的联合经营体(partnership arrangements)可能是保障农场经济生存能力和提高效益的途径之一.本文讨论了三种不同协作类型的经验分析,并强调了与协作经营关联的环境改善.在第一个案例中,对牛奶场和种植农场的协作进行了分析,结果表明多样化的提高和轮作具有实质的潜在效益,当协作包括机械时,其潜在效益更高.第二个例子论及生猪育崽和精饲管理的外部综合条件.协作利润源于生物因子和技术因子两方面,诸如提高生长率和增加猪舍的利用率等.最后,本文对一组种植农场协作进行了评估,认为效益的增加主要得益于机械费用的减少和/或来自其它因素的收益,如轮作和管理、营销策略等的改善. 相似文献
7.
Chemical Composition and Acidity of Rain at the Gulf of Iskenderun,North-East Mediterranean 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
The purpose of the present work was to investigate the chemistry of rain in the Gulf of Iskenderun, North East Mediterranean, Turkey. The Gulf region has a large number of industries. Main industries existing in the region are iron and steel works, fertilizer plants, a cement plant, and several medium and mini size steel mills in addition to the international pipe line terminals. This study aims to apportion the local sources contributing to the overall pollution of the region. To this end a precipitation sampling program was started in January 2000, and over 48 precipitation samples were collected from each of 5 stations located at Iskenderun city center, Iskenderun industrial zone, Payas city center, the campus of Iskenderun Technical College and the campus of Mustafa Kemal University. Samples were analysed for pH, NO3
+, Cl-. Ca, Al, Ba, Na, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Pb, Li, Mg, Mn, Ni, Zn, Fe, K. Concentrations of metal ions were determined by ICP-AES. NO3
- ions and pH were determined by using NO3
- selective electrode and pH meter, respectively.pH values of the collected samples at the industrial zone and at Payas city center, ranged between 5.02 and 7.38, respectively. NO3
- and metal ions concentrations were highly variable. Concentrations of Ca and Fe ions were higher in the industrial zone and Payas city center. In the other three stations, concentrations of metal ions and NO3
- ion were lower than that of industrial zone and the values of pH ranged between 6 and 7.4. The average pH values at Iskenderun Gulf showed that the precipitation was not acidic, because of the high concentration of Ca. The highest concentrations of Na and Cl ions were recorded in the University campus because the campus is located by the Mediterranean Sea. 相似文献
8.
Cecilia Akselsson Johan Holmqvist Mattias Alveteg Daniel Kurz Harald Sverdrup 《Water, Air, & Soil Pollution: Focus》2004,4(2-3):671-681
Weathering rates of base cations are crucial in critical load calculations and assessments of sustainable forestry. The weathering rate on a single site with detailed geological data can be modelled using the PROFILE model. For environmental assessments on a regional scale, the weathering rates for sites are scaled into regional maps. The step from sites to regional level requires focus on the spatial variation of weathering rates. In this paper, a method is presented by which weathering rates are calculated for 25589 Swedish sites with total elemental analysis for the soil. Based on a part of the results, a methodology for creating area covering maps by geostatistical analysis and kriging is described. A normative reconstruction model was used to transform total elemental analysis to mineralogy. Information from the Swedish Forest Inventory database and other databases were used to derive texture and other important information for the sites, e.g. climate, deposition and vegetation data. The calculated weathering rates show a regional pattern that indicates possibilities for interpolation of data in large parts of Sweden. Geostatistical analysis of an area in southern Sweden shows different properties for different base cations. Kriging was performed for potassium to demonstrate the method. It was concluded that different base cations and different regions have to be analysed separately, in order to optimise the kriging method. 相似文献
9.
10.
We examined the principal effects of different information network topologies for local adaptive management of natural resources.
We used computerized agents with adaptive decision algorithms with the following three fundamental constraints: (1) Complete
understanding of the processes maintaining the natural resource can never be achieved, (2) agents can only learn by experimentation
and information sharing, and (3) memory is limited. The agents were given the task to manage a system that had two states:
one that provided high utility returns (desired) and one that provided low returns (undesired). In addition, the threshold
between the states was close to the optimal return of the desired state. We found that networks of low to moderate link densities
significantly increased the resilience of the utility returns. Networks of high link densities contributed to highly synchronized
behavior among the agents, which caused occasional large-scale ecological crises between periods of stable and high utility
returns. A constructed network involving a small set of experimenting agents was capable of combining high utility returns
with high resilience, conforming to theories underlying the concept of adaptive comanagement. We conclude that (1) the ability
to manage for resilience (i.e., to stay clear of the threshold leading to the undesired state as well as the ability to re-enter
the desired state following a collapse) resides in the network structure and (2) in a coupled social–ecological system, the
systemwide state transition occurs not because the ecological system flips into the undesired state, but because managers
lose their capacity to reorganize back to the desired state.
An erratum to this article can be found at . 相似文献