Estimating tree bole volume using artificial neural network models for four species in Turkey

Tree bole volumes of 89 Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.), 96 Brutian pine (Pinus brutia Ten.), 107 Cilicica fir (Abies cilicica Carr.) and 67 Cedar of Lebanon (Cedrus libani A. Rich.) trees were estimated using Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models. Neural networks offer a number of advantages including the ability to implicitly detect complex nonlinear relationships between input and output variables, which is very helpful in tree volume modeling. Two different neural network architectures were used and produced the Back propagation (BPANN) and the Cascade Correlation (CCANN) Artificial Neural Network models. In addition, tree bole volume estimates were compared to other established tree bole volume estimation techniques including the centroid method, taper equations, and existing standard volume tables. An overview of the features of ANNs and traditional methods is presented and the advantages and limitations of each one of them are discussed. For validation purposes, actual volumes were determined by aggregating the volumes of measured short sections (average 1 meter) of the tree bole using Smalian's formula. The results reported in this research suggest that the selected cascade correlation artificial neural network (CCANN) models are reliable for estimating the tree bole volume of the four examined tree species since they gave unbiased results and were superior to almost all methods in terms of error (%) expressed as the mean of the percentage errors.     

A Satellite Model of Forest Flammability

We describe a model of forest flammability, based on daily satellite observations, for national to regional applications. The model defines forest flammability as the percent moisture content of fuel, in the form of litter of varying sizes on the forest floor. The model uses formulas from the US Forest Service that describe moisture exchange between fuel and the surrounding air and precipitation. The model is driven by estimates of temperature, humidity, and precipitation from the moderate resolution imaging spectrometer and tropical rainfall measuring mission multi-satellite precipitation analysis. We provide model results for the southern Amazon and northern Chaco regions. We evaluate the model in a tropical forest-to-woodland gradient in lowland Bolivia. Results from the model are significantly correlated with those from the same model driven by field climate measurements. This model can be run in a near real-time mode, can be applied to other regions, and can be a cost-effective input to national fire management programs.     

Food Citizenship: Is There a Duty for Responsible Consumption?

Labeling of food consumption is related to food safety, food quality, environmental, safety, and social concerns. Future politics of food will be based on a redefinition of commodity food consumption as an expression of citizenship. “Citizen-consumers” realize that they could use their buying power in order to develop a new terrain of social agency and political action. It takes for granted kinds of moral selfhood in which human responsibility is bound into human agency based on knowledge and recognition. This requires new kinds of food labeling practices. Existing research on consumer’s preferences often fails to recognize the full complexity of the motivations and intentions through which the identity of the moral self is built up in relation to food consumption practices. For citizens, not only food production practices matter but also the impact of what we eat on who we are and the ecological foot print of our food stuff. Two major drivers for this are the idea that we ourselves have to take care of our own bodies (“We are what we eat”) and that we are responsible for Planet Earth. Since both obesity and climate change have become major public concerns, also governments develop an increasing interest in defining how citizens ought to behave as consumers and how retailers and producers should facilitate such responsible behavior. Since they are supposed to defend the “bonum commune,” e.g., the public health of their citizens and a sound common future for all, a new consensus on “appropriate” consumption choices has to be found, balancing beneficence and autonomy.     

瑞典来自农业的食品品质特性对消费者支付意愿的影响

本文采用让受访问者做选择题的办法,研究来自农业的食品品质特性与消费者支付意愿的关系,目前这些食品在瑞典还没有销售.数据是通过大规模的邮件调查获得的,同时用一个随机参数的Logit模型来估计.我们的结果表明:同一产品和相同特性,消费者的支付意愿均存在差异.不同产品间为品质特性排序时也是这样.而且,我们还发现可能以转基因作物作为饲料的动物食品市场上表现不力.最后,我们的结论支持被称作"cheap-talk"的研究方法能有效地减小选择试验地的外在误差.在食品行业中,我们的结论对产品差别化战略的构建和对食品政策的形成等方面十分有用.     

Multispecies and Multiscale Conservation Planning: Setting Quantitative Targets for Red‐Listed Lichens on Ancient Oaks

Abstract: Species occurrence in a habitat patch depends on local habitat and the amount of that habitat in the wider landscape. We used predictions from empirical landscape studies to set quantitative conservation criteria and targets in a multispecies and multiscale conservation planning effort. We used regression analyses to compare species richness and occurrence of five red‐listed lichens on 50 ancient oaks (Quercus robur; 120–140 cm in diameter) with the density of ancient oaks in circles of varying radius from each individual oak. Species richness and the occurrence of three of the five species were best explained by increasing density of oaks within 0.5 km; one species was best explained by the density of oaks within 2 km, and another was best predicted by the density of oaks within 5 km. The minimum numbers of ancient oaks required for “successful conservation” was defined as the number of oaks required to obtain a predicted local occurrence of 50% for all species included or a predicted local occurrence of 80% for all species included. These numbers of oaks were calculated for two relevant landscape scales (1 km² and 13 km²) that corresponded to various species responses, in such a way that calculations also accounted for local number of oaks. Ten and seven of the 50 ancient oaks surveyed were situated in landscapes that already fulfilled criteria for successful conservation when the 50% and 80% criteria, respectively, were used to define the level of successful conservation. For cost‐efficient conservation, oak stands in the landscapes most suitable for successful conservation should be prioritized for conservation and management (e.g., grazing and planting of new oaks) at the expense of oak stands situated elsewhere.     

An analysis of China’s investment in the hydropower sector in the Greater Mekong Sub-Region

The Mekong River’s natural resources offer large benefits to its populations, but it also attracts the interest of foreign investors. Recently, Chinese firms, banks and government bodies have increasingly invested in large hydropower projects in the Greater Mekong Sub-Region. Due to China’s rapid economic growth, its rapid industrialisation and its limited domestic natural resources, the Chinese government has issued the ‘Going Out Strategy’ which promotes investments in overseas natural resources like water and energy resources. In search for climate-friendly low-carbon energy, cheap electricity and access to a growing market, Chinese institutions turn to Southeast Asia where Chinese institutions are currently involved in more than 50 on-going large hydropower projects as contractors, investors, regulators and financiers. These Chinese institutions have influence on environmental and social practices as well as on diplomatic and trade relations in the host countries. Currently, there are major gaps in understanding who is engaged, why, how and with what impacts. This paper therefore aims to assess the motives, actors, beneficiaries and the direct and indirect impacts of China’s investment in large hydropower projects in the Greater Mekong Sub-Region. The authors use the ‘Rising Powers Framework’ to assess these issues, which is an adapted version of the Asian Drivers Framework.     

Influence of the Anterior and Middle Cranial Fossae on Brain Kinematics During Sagittal Plane Head Rotation

A 2D physical model of the human head was used to investigate how the irregular skull base structure affects brain kinematics during sagittal plane head dynamics. The model consisted of a rigid skull vessel with interchangeable skull base structures. One version of the model used a skull base mimicking the irregular geometry of the human. A second version used a skull base structure approximating the anterior and middle fossae as a flat surface. Silicone gel simulated the brain and was separated from the vessel by a paraffin layer which provided a slip condition at the interface between the gel and vessel. The model was exposed to 7600 rad/s² peak rotational acceleration with 6 ms pulse duration and 5° forced rotation. After 90° free rotation, the model was decelerated during 30 ms. Five repeated tests were conducted with each version. Rigid body displacement, shear strain and principal strains were determined from high-speed video recorded trajectories of grid markers located at different positions in the surrogate brain. The humanlike skull base reduced peak displacements of the inferior surfaces of the temporal and frontal lobes up to 87% and 48%, respectively. Up to 48% and 36% higher peak strains were obtained in the frontal and superior regions of the surrogate brain in the version containing the humanlike skull base. In contrast, the humanlike skull base decreased peak strain up to 28% in the central region of the surrogate brain. The results indicate that the irregular skull base offers natural protection of nerves and vessels passing through fissures and foramina in the cranial floor but also that it affects kinematics in different regions throughout the cerebrum. Implications of these results are discussed with respect to brain injury and modeling of head impact.     

Attitudes of Dutch Pig Farmers Towards Tail Biting and Tail Docking

The Dutch policy objective of a fully sustainable livestock sector without mutilations by 2023 is not compatible with the routine practice of tail docking to minimize the risk of tail biting. To examine farmer attitudes towards docking, a telephone survey was conducted among 487 conventional and 33 organic Dutch pig farmers. “Biting” (of tails, ears, or limbs) was identified by the farmers as a main welfare problem in pig farming. About half of the farmers reported to have no tail biting problems in their own herd. When farmers did report problems, they most often reported figures between 1 and 5 % of the animals. High incidences of tail biting were anticipated when trying to keep undocked pigs. Enrichment materials used in the conventional sector included mainly chains (52–63 % of the farms) and hanging rubber or plastic balls (22–30 %). Straw, sawdust, or wood shavings was hardly provided in conventional pig farming (2–3 %), in contrast to organic farming (88–100 % of farms). Conventional pig farmers feel a curly tail is not very important for sustainable pig farming. They consider enrichment to be less effective and tail docking to be less stressful for them and their piglets than their organic colleagues do. Pig farmers identified climate as a main risk factor for tail biting as opposed to enrichment. The objective of reducing routine tail docking requires solutions for dealing with tail biting problems at the farm level. In this process, transfer of scientific knowledge about enrichment materials and other measures to prevent and cure tail biting is critical, as is a change in farmer attitudes and awareness of the moral issues involved.     

Risk and vulnerability analysis: A feasible process for local climate adaptation in Sweden?

Climate change is an important new challenge for local authorities. This study analyses the potential for using the Swedish mandatory process for risk and vulnerability analysis (RVA) as a vehicle to improve local climate adaptation work. An advantage with RVA is its comprehensive approach in dealing with all relevant threats and all vital functions of society. In order to test the applicability of incorporating climate adaptation into RVA, we studied practical experiences from three Swedish municipalities. In all municipalities, a pre-study to identify relevant climate-induced events was performed. In one municipality, this was followed by a more detailed analysis of the potential impacts of these events on the functions of the various administrations and companies within the local authority. Problems identified in successful integration of climate change into the municipal RVA process were lack of sufficient knowledge to identify the impacts of climate change on the level of the respective specialist or district administration and lack of resources to perform the analysis. There were also some difficulties in including a long-term perspective relevant for climate adaptation into RVA, which usually focuses on current threats. A positive outcome was that work on extreme climate events in RVA provided a traceable method to identify events with a potentially great impact on the function of local society and results that could be fed into other ongoing processes, such as spatial planning and housing plans.