Comparing universal kriging and land-use regression for predicting concentrations of gaseous oxides of nitrogen (NOx) for the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis and Air Pollution (MESA Air)

BACKGROUND: Epidemiological studies that assess the health effects of long-term exposure to ambient air pollution are used to inform public policy. These studies rely on exposure models that use data collected from pollution monitoring sites to predict exposures at subject locations. Land use regression (LUR) and universal kriging (UK) have been suggested as potential prediction methods. We evaluate these approaches on a dataset including measurements from three seasons in Los Angeles, CA. METHODS: The measurements of gaseous oxides of nitrogen (NOx) used in this study are from a "snapshot" sampling campaign that is part of the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis and Air Pollution (MESA Air). The measurements in Los Angeles were collected during three two-week periods in the summer, autumn, and winter, each with about 150 sites. The design included clusters of monitors on either side of busy roads to capture near-field gradients of traffic-related pollution. LUR and UK prediction models were created using geographic information system (GIS)-based covariates. Selection of covariates was based on 10-fold cross-validated (CV) R(2) and root mean square error (RMSE). Since UK requires specialized software, a computationally simpler two-step procedure was also employed to approximate fitting the UK model using readily available regression and GIS software. RESULTS: UK models consistently performed as well as or better than the analogous LUR models. The best CV R(2) values for season-specific UK models predicting log(NOx) were 0.75, 0.72, and 0.74 (CV RMSE 0.20, 0.17, and 0.15) for summer, autumn, and winter, respectively. The best CV R(2) values for season-specific LUR models predicting log(NOx) were 0.74, 0.60, and 0.67 (CV RMSE 0.20, 0.20, and 0.17). The two-stage approximation to UK also performed better than LUR and nearly as well as the full UK model with CV R(2) values 0.75, 0.70, and 0.70 (CV RMSE 0.20, 0.17, and 0.17) for summer, autumn, and winter, respectively. CONCLUSION: High quality LUR and UK prediction models for NOx in Los Angeles were developed for the three seasons based on data collected for MESA Air. In our study, UK consistently outperformed LUR. Similarly, the 2-step approach was more effective than the LUR models, with performance equal to or slightly worse than UK.     

Exposure to moderate concentrations of tropospheric ozone impairs tree stomatal response to carbon dioxide

With rising concentrations of both atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) and tropospheric ozone (O₃), it is important to better understand the interacting effects of these two trace gases on plant physiology affecting land-atmosphere gas exchange. We investigated the effect of growth under elevated CO₂ and O₃, singly and in combination, on the primary short-term stomatal response to CO₂ concentration in paper birch at the Aspen FACE experiment. Leaves from trees grown in elevated CO₂ and/or O₃ exhibited weaker short-term responses of stomatal conductance to both an increase and a decrease in CO₂ concentration from current ambient level. The impairement of the stomatal CO₂ response by O₃ most likely developed progressively over the growing season as assessed by sap flux measurements. Our results suggest that expectations of plant water-savings and reduced stomatal air pollution uptake under rising atmospheric CO₂ may not hold for northern hardwood forests under concurrently rising tropospheric O₃.     

Soil nitrogen transformations under elevated atmospheric CO₂ and O₃ during the soybean growing season

We investigated the influence of elevated CO₂ and O₃ on soil N cycling within the soybean growing season and across soil environments (i.e., rhizosphere and bulk soil) at the Soybean Free Air Concentration Enrichment (SoyFACE) experiment in Illinois, USA. Elevated O₃ decreased soil mineral N likely through a reduction in plant material input and increased denitrification, which was evidenced by the greater abundance of the denitrifier gene nosZ. Elevated CO₂ did not alter the parameters evaluated and both elevated CO₂ and O₃ showed no interactive effects on nitrifier and denitrifier abundance, nor on total and mineral N concentrations. These results indicate that elevated CO₂ may have limited effects on N transformations in soybean agroecosystems. However, elevated O₃ can lead to a decrease in soil N availability in both bulk and rhizosphere soils, and this likely also affects ecosystem productivity by reducing the mineralization rates of plant-derived residues.     

Effects of mercury on visible/near-infrared reflectance spectra of mustard spinach plants (Brassica rapa P.)

Mustard spinach plants were grown in mercury-spiked and contaminated soils collected in the field under controlled laboratory conditions over a full growth cycle to test if vegetation grown in these soils has discernible characteristics in visible/near-infrared (VNIR) spectra. Foliar Hg concentrations (0.174-3.993ppm) of the Mustard spinach plants were positively correlated with Hg concentration of soils and varied throughout the growing season. Equations relating foliar Hg concentration to spectral reflectance, its first derivative, and selected vegetation indices were generated using stepwise multiple linear regression. Significant correlations are found for limited wavelengths for specific treatments and dates. Ratio Vegetation Index (RVI) and Red Edge Position (REP) values of plants in Hg-spiked and field-contaminated soils are significantly lower relative to control plants during the early and middle portions of the growth cycle which may be related to lower chlorophyll abundance or functioning in Hg-contaminated plants.     

Building resilience to drought in desertification-prone savannas in Sub-Saharan Africa: The water perspective

Securing sustainable livelihood conditions and reducing the risk of outmigration in savanna ecosystems hosted in the tropical semiarid regions is of fundamental importance for the future of humanity in general. Although precipitation in tropical drylands, or savannas, is generally more significant than one might expect, these regions are subject to considerable rainfall variability which causes frequent periods of water deficiency. This paper addresses the twin problems of “drought and desertification” from a water perspective, focusing on the soil moisture (green water) and plant water uptake deficiencies. It makes a clear distinction between long‐term climate change, meteorological drought, and agricultural droughts and dry spells caused by rainfall variability and land degradation. It then formulates recommendations to better cope with and to build resilience to droughts and dry spells. Coping with desertification requires a new conceptual framework based on green‐blue water resources to identify hydrological opportunities in a sea of constraints. This paper proposes an integrated land/water approach to desertification where ecosystem management supports agricultural development to build social‐ecological resilience to droughts and dry spells. This approach is based on the premise that to combat desertification, focus should shift from reducing trends of land degradation in agricultural systems to water resource management in savannas and to landscape‐wide ecosystem management.     

Soil sensitivity to acidification in Asia: status and prospects

Exceedance of steady-state critical loads for soil acidification is consistently found in southern China and parts of SE Asia, but there is no evidence of impacts outside of China. This study describes a methodology for calculating the time to effects for soils sensitive to acidic deposition in Asia under potential future sulfur (S), nitrogen (N), and calcium (Ca) emission scenarios. The calculations are matched to data availability in Asia to produce regional-scale maps that provide estimates of the time (y) it will take for soil base saturation to reach a critical limit of 20% in response to acidic inputs. The results show that sensitive soil types in areas of South, Southeast, and East Asia, including parts of southern China, Burma, Hainan, Laos, Thailand, Vietnam, and the Western Ghats of India, may acidify to a significant degree on a 0-50 y timescale, depending on individual site management and abiotic and biotic characteristics. To make a clearer assessment of risk, site-specific data are required for soil chemistry and deposition (especially base cation deposition); S and N retention in soils and ecosystems; and biomass harvesting and weathering rates from sites across Asia representative of different soil and vegetation types and management regimes. National and regional assessments of soils using the simple methods described in this paper can provide an appreciation of the time dimension of soil acidification-related impacts and should be useful in planning further studies and, possibly, implementing measures to reduce risks of acidification.     

Study of Trace Elements and Soot in Aerosols from a Coal-Fired Power Plant in Northern Vietnam

Two measurement campaigns were conducted in two sampling sites, An Thinh and Duy Minh, in northern Vietnam during the months of November–December 2000 and November 2001–February 2002 in order to investigate the extend of the particulate air pollution from the Pha Lai coal fired power plant. Fine particle samples were analyzed by Energy Dispersive X-Ray Fluorescence spectrometry and soot samples were analyzed by reflectometer. The result showed that high concentration of soot and elements mostly coincided with the air masses originating from the power plant. Sea spray aerosol was found to be the major source of chlorine at both sites. Ratios of specific elements and principal component analysis (PCA) revealed that coal combustion was the main contributor to the air pollution at both sites. PCA also indicated that there were other sources responsible for the elements emission, probably the influence of long distance transport and Asian Brown Cloud.     

瑞典区域气候模拟计划(SWECLIM)综述

瑞典区域气候模拟计划(SWECLIM)是一个历时6年半的国家研究网络计划,该研究网络主要涉及区域气候模拟、区域气候变化预测以及水文影响评估,并且为广大的利益相关人士提供相应信息.大部分研究活动主要针对北欧区域气候系统.最终促使建立一个先进的大气-海洋-水文相耦合的区域气候模型系统和一套区域气候变化预测体系,并促成了相关数据的积累和相关过程研究的进步.反过来,作为对不同社会部门影响分析的一个起点,这些也可以用来作为信息源和为教育服务,而且还为国际气候研究做出了贡献.     

Crypsis versus intimidation—anti-predation defence in three closely related butterflies

Butterflies that hibernate exhibit particularly efficient defence against predation. A first line of defence is crypsis, and most hibernating butterflies are leaf mimics. When discovered, some species have a second line of defence; the peacock, I. io, when attacked by a predator flicks its wings open exposing large eyespots and performs an intimidating threat display. Here we test the hypothesis that butterflies relying solely on leaf mimicking and butterflies with an intimidating wing pattern, when attacked, exhibit different behavioural suites—because leaf mimicking is best implemented by immobility, whereas intimidating coloration is best implemented by intimidating behaviour. In laboratory experiments blue tits, Parus caeruleus, were allowed 40 min to attack single individuals of three species of butterfly: one relying solely on crypsis, the comma, Polygonia c-album; one relying on intimidating wing pattern in addition to crypsis, the peacock; and one intermediate species, the small tortoiseshell Aglais urticae. The results are in accordance with expectations and demonstrate that: (1) birds take longer to discover the leaf mimicking species, the comma, than the tortoiseshell and the peacock; (2) the comma remained motionless throughout experimental trials but small tortoiseshells and peacocks flicked their wings when attacked; (3) the most intimidating butterfly, the peacock, started flicking its wings at a greater distance from the attacking bird than the small tortoiseshell; and (4) the intimidating pattern and behaviour of peacocks was effective—when discovered, all peacocks survived interactions with blue tits, whereas only 22% of commas and 8% of small tortoiseshells survived.     

Do plant density, nutrient availability, and herbivore grazing interact to affect phlorotannin plasticity in the brown seaweed Ascophyllum nodosum

Plants have different strategies to cope with herbivory, including induction of chemical defences and compensatory growth. The most favourable strategy for an individual plant may depend on the density at which the plants are growing and on the availability of nutrients, but this has not been tested previously for marine plant–herbivore interactions. We investigated the separate and interactive effects of plant density, nutrient availability, and herbivore grazing on the phlorotannin (polyphenolic) production in the brown seaweed Ascophyllum nodosum. Seaweed plants grown at low or high densities were exposed either to nutrient enrichment, herbivorous littorinid gastropods (Littorina obtusata), or a combination of nutrients and herbivores in an outdoor mesocosm experiment for 2 weeks. Seaweeds grown at a low density tended to have higher tissue nitrogen content compared to plants grown at a high density when exposed to elevated nutrient levels, indicating that there was a density dependent competition for nitrogen. Herbivore grazing induced a higher phlorotannin content in plants grown under ambient, but not enriched, nutrient levels, indicting either that phlorotannin plasticity is more costly when nutrients are abundant or that plants responded to herbivory by compensatory growth. However, there were no significant interactive or main effects of plant density on the seaweed phlorotannin content. The results indicate that plants in both high and low densities induce chemical defence, and that eutrophication may have indirect effects on marine plant–herbivore interactions through alterations of plant chemical defence allocation.