Estimating Potential Climate Change Effects on the Upper Neuse Watershed Water Balance Using the SWAT Model

Climate change poses water resource challenges for many already water stressed watersheds throughout the world. One such watershed is the Upper Neuse Watershed in North Carolina, which serves as a water source for the large and growing Research Triangle Park region. The aim of this study was to quantify possible changes in the watershed’s water balance due to climate change. To do this, we used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model forced with different climate scenarios for baseline, mid‐century, and end‐century time periods using five different downscaled General Circulation Models. Before running these scenarios, the SWAT model was calibrated and validated using daily streamflow records within the watershed. The study results suggest that, even under a mitigation scenario, precipitation will increase by 7.7% from the baseline to mid‐century time period and by 9.8% between the baseline and end‐century time period. Over the same periods, evapotranspiration (ET) would decrease by 5.5 and 7.6%, water yield would increase by 25.1% and 33.2%, and soil water would increase by 1.4% and 1.9%. Perhaps most importantly, the model results show, under a high emission scenario, large seasonal differences with ET estimated to decrease by up to 42% and water yield to increase by up to 157% in late summer and fall. Planning for the wetter predicted future and corresponding seasonal changes will be critical for mitigating the impacts of climate change on water resources.     

Backwater Confluences of the Ohio River: Organic and Inorganic Fingerprints Explain Sediment Dynamics in Wetlands and Marinas

In the Ohio River (OR), backwater confluence sedimentation dynamics are understudied, however, these river features are expected to be influential on the system’s ecological and economic function when integrated along the river’s length. In the following paper, we test the efficacy of organic and inorganic tracers for sediment fingerprinting in backwater confluences; we use fingerprinting results to evidence sediment dynamics controlling deposition patterns in confluences used for wetland and marina functions; and we quantify the spatial extent of tributary drainages with wetland and marina features in OR confluences. Both organic and inorganic tracers statistically differentiate sediment from stream and river end‐members. Carbon and nitrogen stable isotopes produce greater uncertainty in fingerprinting results than inorganic elemental tracers. Uncertainty analysis of the nonconservative tracer term in the organic matter fingerprinting application estimates an apparent enrichment of the carbon stable isotopes during instream residence, and the nonconservativeness is quantified with a statistical approach unique to the fingerprinting literature. Wetland and marina features in OR confluences impact 42% and 11% of tributary drainage areas, respectively. Sediment dynamics show wetland and marina confluences experience deposition from river backwaters with longitudinally linear and nonlinear patterns, respectively, from sediment sources.     

Comparison and Evaluation of Gridded Precipitation Datasets in a Kansas Agricultural Watershed Using SWAT

Gridded precipitation datasets are becoming a convenient substitute for gauge measurements in hydrological modeling; however, these data have not been fully evaluated across a range of conditions. We compared four gridded datasets (Daily Surface Weather and Climatological Summaries [DAYMET], North American Land Data Assimilation System [NLDAS], Global Land Data Assimilation System [GLDAS], and Parameter‐elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model [PRISM]) as precipitation data sources and evaluated how they affected hydrologic model performance when compared with a gauged dataset, Global Historical Climatology Network‐Daily (GHCN‐D). Analyses were performed for the Delaware Watershed at Perry Lake in eastern Kansas. Precipitation indices for DAYMET and PRISM precipitation closely matched GHCN‐D, whereas NLDAS and GLDAS showed weaker correlations. We also used these precipitation data as input to the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model that confirmed similar trends in streamflow simulation. For stations with complete data, GHCN‐D based SWAT‐simulated streamflow variability better than gridded precipitation data. During low flow periods we found PRISM performed better, whereas both DAYMET and NLDAS performed better in high flow years. Our results demonstrate that combining gridded precipitation sources with gauge‐based measurements can improve hydrologic model performance, especially for extreme events.     

Catalytic oxidation of CO over Pt/Fe3O4 catalysts: Tuning O2 activation and CO adsorption

• Strong metal-support interaction exists on Pt/Fe₃O₄ catalysts. • Pt metal particles facilitate the formation of oxygen vacancies on Fe₃O₄. • Fe₃O₄ supports enhance the strength of CO adsorption on Pt metal particles. The self-inhibition behavior due to CO poisoning on Pt metal particles strongly impairs the performance of CO oxidation. It is an effective method to use reducible metal oxides for supporting Pt metal particles to avoid self-inhibition and to improve catalytic performance. In this work, we used in situ reductions of chloroplatinic acid on commercial Fe₃O₄ powder to prepare heterogeneous-structured Pt/Fe₃O₄ catalysts in the solution of ethylene glycol. The heterogeneous Pt/Fe₃O₄ catalysts achieved a better catalytic performance of CO oxidation compared with the Fe₃O₄ powder. The temperatures of 50% and 90% CO conversion were achieved above 260°C and 290°C at Pt/Fe₃O₄, respectively. However, they are accomplished on Fe₃O₄ at temperatures higher than 310°C. XRD, XPS, and H₂-TPR results confirmed that the metallic Pt atoms have a strong synergistic interaction with the Fe₃O₄ supports. TGA results and transient DRIFTS results proved that the Pt metal particles facilitate the release of lattice oxygen and the formation of oxygen vacancies on Fe₃O₄. The combined results of O₂-TPD and DRIFTS indicated that the activation step of oxygen molecules at surface oxygen vacancies could potentially be the rate-determining step of the catalytic CO oxidation at Pt/Fe₃O₄ catalysts. The reaction pathway involves a Pt-assisted Mars-van Krevelen (MvK) mechanism.     

Circumpolar status of Arctic ptarmigan: Population dynamics and trends

Rock ptarmigan (Lagopus muta) and willow ptarmigan (L. lagopus) are Arctic birds with a circumpolar distribution but there is limited knowledge about their status and trends across their circumpolar distribution. Here, we compiled information from 90 ptarmigan study sites from 7 Arctic countries, where almost half of the sites are still monitored. Rock ptarmigan showed an overall negative trend on Iceland and Greenland, while Svalbard and Newfoundland had positive trends, and no significant trends in Alaska. For willow ptarmigan, there was a negative trend in mid-Sweden and eastern Russia, while northern Fennoscandia, North America and Newfoundland had no significant trends. Both species displayed some periods with population cycles (short 3–6 years and long 9–12 years), but cyclicity changed through time for both species. We propose that simple, cost-efficient systematic surveys that capture the main feature of ptarmigan population dynamics can form the basis for citizen science efforts in order to fill knowledge gaps for the many regions that lack systematic ptarmigan monitoring programs.

     

Muskox status,recent variation,and uncertain future

Ambio - Muskoxen (Ovibos moschatus) are an integral component of Arctic biodiversity. Given low genetic diversity, their ability to respond to future and rapid Arctic change is unknown, although...     

Decline and diversity in Swedish seas: Environmental narratives in marine history,science and policy

Ambio - Before the mid-twentieth century, there was no comprehensive narrative about empirical conditions in Swedish seas. Around 1970, this view changed profoundly. In line with growing research...     

Outsourcing,trade, technology,and greenhouse gas emissions

Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - U.S. output has steadily outpaced the rise in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions over the past several decades. The decoupling of these two trends...     

The tree species matters: Biodiversity and ecosystem service implications of replacing Scots pine production stands with Norway spruce

Ambio - The choice of tree species used in production forests matters for biodiversity and ecosystem services. In Sweden, damage to young production forests by large browsing herbivores is helping...     

Understanding interactions between urban development policies and GHG emissions: A case study in Stockholm Region

Human-induced urban growth and sprawl have implications for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that may not be included in conventional GHG accounting methods. Improved understanding of this issue requires use of interactive, spatial-explicit social–ecological systems modeling. This paper develops a comprehensive approach to modeling GHG emissions from urban developments, considering Stockholm County, Sweden as a case study. GHG projections to 2040 with a social–ecological system model yield overall greater emissions than simple extrapolations in official climate action planning. The most pronounced difference in emissions (39% higher) from energy use single-residence buildings resulting from urban sprawl. And this difference is not accounted for in the simple extrapolations. Scenario results indicate that a zoning policy, restricting urban development in certain areas, can mitigate 72% of the total emission effects of the model-projected urban sprawl. The study outcomes include a decision support interface for communicating results and policy implications with policymakers.