A framework for definition of logical scenarios for safety assurance of automated driving

Abstract

Objective: In order to introduce automated vehicles on public roads, it is necessary to ensure that these vehicles are safe to operate in traffic. One challenge is to prove that all physically possible variations of situations can be handled safely within the operational design domain of the vehicle. A promising approach to handling the set of possible situations is to identify a manageable number of logical scenarios, which provide an abstraction for object properties and behavior within the situations. These can then be transferred into concrete scenarios defining all parameters necessary to reproduce the situation in different test environments.

Methods: This article proposes a framework for defining safety-relevant scenarios based on the potential collision between the subject vehicle and a challenging object, which forces the subject vehicle to depart from its planned course of action to avoid a collision. This allows defining only safety-relevant scenarios, which can directly be related to accident classification. The first criterion for defining a scenario is the area of the subject vehicle with which the object would collide. As a second criterion, 8 different positions around the subject vehicle are considered. To account for other relevant objects in the scenario, factors that influence the challenge for the subject vehicle can be added to the scenario. These are grouped as action constraints, dynamic occlusions, and causal chains.

Results: By applying the proposed systematics, a catalog of base scenarios for a vehicle traveling on controlled-access highways has been generated, which can directly be linked to parameters in accident classification. The catalog serves as a basis for scenario classification within the PEGASUS project.

Conclusions: Defining a limited number of safety-relevant scenarios helps to realize a systematic safety assurance process for automated vehicles. Scenarios are defined based on the point of the potential collision of a challenging object with the subject vehicle and its initial position. This approach allows defining scenarios for different environments and different driving states of the subject vehicle using the same mechanisms. A next step is the generation of logical scenarios for other driving states of the subject vehicle and for other traffic environments.     

The role of scale in integrating climate change adaptation and mitigation in cities

By using a scale framework, we examine how cross-scale interactions influence the implementation of climate adaptation and mitigation actions in different urban sectors. Based on stakeholder interviews and content analysis of strategies and projects relevant to climate adaptation and mitigation in the cities of Copenhagen and Helsinki, we present empirical examples of synergies, conflicts and trade-offs between adaptation and mitigation that are driven by the cross-scale interactions. These examples show that jurisdictional and institutional scales shape the implementation of adaptation and mitigation strategies, projects and tasks at the management scale, creating benefits of integrated solutions, but also challenges. Investigating the linkages between adaptation and mitigation through a scale framework provides new knowledge for urban climate change planning and decision-making. The results increase the understanding of why adaptation and mitigation are sometimes handled as two separate policy areas and also why attempts to integrate the two policies may fail.     

Global population collapse in a superabundant migratory bird and illegal trapping in China

Persecution and overexploitation by humans are major causes of species extinctions. Rare species, often confined to small geographic ranges, are usually at highest risk, whereas extinctions of superabundant species with very large ranges are rare. The Yellow‐breasted Bunting (Emberiza aureola) used to be one of the most abundant songbirds of the Palearctic, with a very large breeding range stretching from Scandinavia to the Russian Far East. Anecdotal information about rapid population declines across the range caused concern about unsustainable trapping along the species’ migration routes. We conducted a literature review and used long‐term monitoring data from across the species’ range to model population trend and geographical patterns of extinction. The population declined by 84.3–94.7% between 1980 and 2013, and the species’ range contracted by 5000 km. Quantitative evidence from police raids suggested rampant illegal trapping of the species along its East Asian flyway in China. A population model simulating an initial harvest level of 2% of the population, and an annual increase of 0.2% during the monitoring period produced a population trajectory that matched the observed decline. We suggest that trapping strongly contributed to the decline because the consumption of Yellow‐breasted Bunting and other songbirds has increased as a result of economic growth and prosperity in East Asia. The magnitude and speed of the decline is unprecedented among birds with a comparable range size, with the exception of the Passenger Pigeon (Ectopistes migratorius), which went extinct in 1914 due to industrial‐scale hunting. Our results demonstrate the urgent need for an improved monitoring of common and widespread species’ populations, and consumption levels throughout East Asia.     

Risk assessment of metals and organic pollutants for herbivorous and carnivorous small mammal food chains in a polluted floodplain (Biesbosch, The Netherlands)

A risk assessment was made for a carnivorous and a herbivorous food chain in a heavily polluted natural estuary (Biesbosch), by determining the most critical pollutants and the food chain most at risk. Exposure of food chains to metals, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) was assessed by analyzing dietary concentrations, internal concentrations, and biomarkers of exposure. Common shrew (Sorex araneus) and bank vole (Clethrionomys glareolus) were selected as representative small mammal species for the carnivorous and herbivorous food chain, respectively, and earthworms (Lumbricus rubellus) and snails (Cepaea nemoralis) as representative prey species for the carnivorous food chain. Metals contributed most to the total risk for small mammals and earthworms. PCBs, but not PAHs, contributed to the overall risk for S. araneus at regularly flooded locations. The carnivorous food chain appeared most at risk given the higher exposure levels and bioaccumulating potency found for contaminants in S. araneus.     

Environmental public opinion in U.S. states, 1973–2012

Partisan polarization of public opinion is a major trend in American environmental politics. While the national pattern is widely recognized, scholars know much less about the polarization of public opinion over time at the state level. This lack of knowledge is unfortunate because geographic variation in the polarization of opinion is essential for explaining the origins of partisan polarization and evaluating its consequences for policy. To fill the gap, the multilevel regression and poststratification technique is applied to provide credible estimates of state-level environmental public opinion for both Democrats and Republicans, 1973–2012. It appears that the growing partisan gap reflects increased pro-environmental opinion among Democrats across many states, whereas Republican state-level public opinion is converging toward a much lower baseline. Cross-state variation among both parties has decreased over time, contributing to greater partisan polarization in the aggregate. Changes in the sorting of voters in and out of political parties cannot explain these patterns of polarization.     

应用体内和体外方法评价原油水溶性组分和原油污染的地表水对淡水生物的内分泌干扰潜力

目前关于原油对淡水水生脊椎动物内分泌信号的潜在影响的认知有限。本文以非洲爪蟾(爪蟾属,X. laevis)蝌蚪和莫桑比克罗非鱼幼鱼(口孵非鲫属,O. mossambicus)为研究对象,选择风化原油和未风化提炼后的原油这2种原油的水溶性组分(WAFs)进行暴露实验,选择出可作为内分泌信号改变的生物标志物的基因,对其表达进行了研究。此外,将X. laevis蝌蚪暴露于靠近地下石油库的地表水中,对上述基因表达做了定量分析。利用重组酵母对原油、原油水溶性组分和地表水的(抗)雌激素和(抗)雄激素性进行了评价。在X. laevis对2种原油WAFs的响应中,甲状腺激素受体β表达均显著下调,而另一种与甲状腺相关的基因,2型脱碘酶,在O. mossambicus暴露于高浓度的原油WAF时被上调。此外,这2种WAFs都改变了与脂肪生成相关的过氧化物酶体增殖物激活受体γ在X. laevis中的表达。原油和WAFs在体外表现出抗雌激素和抗雄性激素的活性。然而,O. mossambicus雄激素受体2作为唯一一个代表生殖系统的基因,受到WAF暴露的影响显著。在地表水样品中发现了雌激素、抗雌激素和抗雄激素的作用;但是,在暴露于地表水的X. laevis中没有观察到任何基因表达的明显变化。在所用的2种模式生物以及2种原油中,响应各不相同。尽管如此,这些数据提供了证据证明原油污染可能会因内分泌信号转变对淡水鱼和两栖动物的健康造成不利影响。
精选自Truter, J. C., van Wyk, J. H., Oberholster, P. J., Botha, A.-M. and Mokwena, L. M. (2017), An evaluation of the endocrine disruptive potential of crude oil water accommodated fractions and crude oil contaminated surface water to freshwater organisms using in vitroand in vivo approaches. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry, 36: 1330–1342. doi: 10.1002/etc.3665
详情请见http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/etc.3665/full
     

Plant Communities,Soil Carbon,and Soil Nitrogen Properties in a Successional Gradient of Sub-Alpine Meadows on the Eastern Tibetan Plateau of China

To assess the recovery trajectory and self-maintenance of restored ecosystems, a successional gradient (1, 3, 5, 15, and 30 years after abandonment) was established in a sub-alpine meadow of the eastern Tibetan Plateau in China. Plant communities and soil carbon and nitrogen properties were investigated and analyzed. Regression analyses were used to assess the models (linear or quadratic) relating measures of species richness, soil carbon and nitrogen properties to fallow time. We found that species richness (S) increased over the first 20 years but decreased thereafter, and aboveground biomass showed a linear increase along the fallow time gradient. The richness of different functional groups (forb, grass and legume) changed little along the fallow time gradient, but their corresponding above ground biomass showed the U-shaped, humped or linear pattern. Soil microbial carbon (MBC) and nitrogen (MBN) in the upper 20 cm showed a U-shaped pattern along the fallow time gradient. However, soil organic carbon (C_org) and total nitrogen (TN) in the soil at depth greater than 20 cm showed significant patterns of linear decline along the fallow time gradient. The threshold models of species richness reflected best the recovery over the 15 year fallow period. These results indicated that fallow time had a greater influence on development of the plant community than soil processes in abandoned fields in sub-alpine meadow ecosystem. These results also suggested that although the succession process did not significantly increase soil C, an increase in microbial biomass at the latter stage of succession could promote the decomposability of plant litter. Therefore, abandoned fields in sub-alpine meadow ecosystem may have a high resilience and strong rehabilitating capability under natural recovery condition.     

Oxidation of As(Ⅲ) by potassium permanganate

The oxidation of As(Ⅲ) with potassium permanganate was studied under conditions including pH, initial As(Ⅲ) concentration and dosage of Mn(Ⅶ). The results have shown that potassium permanganate was an effective agent for oxidizing of As(Ⅲ) in a wide pH range. The pH value of tested water was not a significant factor affecting the oxidation of As(Ⅲ) by Mn(Ⅶ). Although theoretical redox analyses suggest that Mn(Ⅶ) should have better performance in oxidization of As(Ⅲ) within lower pH ranges, the experimental results show that the oxidation efficiencies of As(Ⅲ) under basic and acidic conditions were similar, which may be due to the adsorption of As(Ⅲ) on the Mn(OH)2 and MnO2 resulting from the oxidation of As(Ⅲ).