Multi-decadal changes in tundra environments and ecosystems: synthesis of the International Polar Year-Back to the Future project (IPY-BTF)

Understanding the responses of tundra systems to global change has global implications. Most tundra regions lack sustained environmental monitoring and one of the only ways to document multi-decadal change is to resample historic research sites. The International Polar Year (IPY) provided a unique opportunity for such research through the Back to the Future (BTF) project (IPY project #512). This article synthesizes the results from 13 papers within this Ambio Special Issue. Abiotic changes include glacial recession in the Altai Mountains, Russia; increased snow depth and hardness, permafrost warming, and increased growing season length in sub-arctic Sweden; drying of ponds in Greenland; increased nutrient availability in Alaskan tundra ponds, and warming at most locations studied. Biotic changes ranged from relatively minor plant community change at two sites in Greenland to moderate change in the Yukon, and to dramatic increases in shrub and tree density on Herschel Island, and in subarctic Sweden. The population of geese tripled at one site in northeast Greenland where biomass in non-grazed plots doubled. A model parameterized using results from a BTF study forecasts substantial declines in all snowbeds and increases in shrub tundra on Niwot Ridge, Colorado over the next century. In general, results support and provide improved capacities for validating experimental manipulation, remote sensing, and modeling studies.     

Flora and Vegetation of Tasiilaq,Formerly Angmagssalik,Southeast Greenland: A Comparison of Data Between Around 1900 and 2007

The changes in the vascular plant flora of Tasiilaq, low arctic Southeast Greenland, between around 1900 and 2007 were studied by comparing the data from historical literature with those of the field observations performed between the late 1960s and 2007. Since 1900, the percentage of widely distributed arctic species distinctly decreased, whereas that of the low arctic species somewhat increased, and boreal species hardly increased. Vegetation monitoring revealed minor changes and showed that several thermophilous and xerophilous species increased between 1968/1969 and 2007, whereas some hygrophilous species decreased. Repeated vegetation mapping of a shallow pond revealed conspicuous changes suggesting increased evaporation/precipitation ratios associated with environmental warming up and decreasing snow accumulation in winter, in line with results of previous investigations. In spite of climate warming, expansion of the town and increasing human impact, flora and vegetation on the whole appeared rather stable during the last 40 years without invading species or introductions.     

Differentiation of nitrous oxide emission factors for agricultural soils

Nitrous oxide (N₂O) direct soil emissions from agriculture are often estimated using the default IPCC emission factor (EF) of 1%. However, a large variation in EFs exists due to differences in environment, crops and management. We developed an approach to determine N₂O EFs that depend on N-input sources and environmental factors. The starting point of the method was a monitoring study in which an EF of 1% was found. The conditions of this experiment were set as the reference from which the effects of 16 sources of N input, three soil types, two land-use types and annual precipitation on the N₂O EF were estimated. The derived EF inference scheme performed on average better than the default IPCC EF. The use of differentiated EFs, including different regional conditions, allows accounting for the effects of more mitigation measures and offers European countries a possibility to use a Tier 2 approach.     

On the importance of life history and age structure in biological invasions

The age specific patterns of reproduction and mortality dictated by the life history of an organism apply to potential invaders as well as resident species of an area, but whether certain life history traits are more invasive than others is an unresolved issue. We analyze a two-population system of an invading and a resident species and test the effects of age on the probability to invade when the organisms are iteroparous or semelparous. The life history characteristics of the populations are projected in Leslie matrices, and the probability that the invader exceeds different population sizes is calculated by Monte Carlo analysis. The simulations show that (a) the invasion probability of an iteroparous organism increases with age until the individuals introduced are mature for first reproduction, and then becomes independent of age; (b) the invasion probability is more age sensitive for iteroparous organisms with high juvenile mortality (Type III organisms) than for those with a lower (Type I); (c) invading semelparous organisms are most affected by competition from resident organisms; (d) variations in vital rates of semelparous residents have greater influence on the invasion probability of an iteroparous organism than variations in traits of the invader.     

Predicting δCDIC dynamics in CCS: A scheme based on a review of inorganic carbon chemistry under elevated pressures and temperatures

Stable carbon isotopes are important tools to assess potential storage sites for CO₂, as they allow the quantification of ionic trapping via isotope mass balances. In deep geological formations high p/T conditions need to be considered, because CO₂ dissolution, equilibrium constants and isotope fractionation of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) depend on temperature, pressure and solute composition. After reviewing different approaches to account for these dependencies, an expanded scheme is presented for speciation and carbon isotope fractionation of DIC and dissolution of CaCO₃ for pCO₂ up to 100 bar, pH down to 3 and temperatures of up to 200 °C. The scheme evaluates the influence of respective parameters on isotope ratios during CO₂ sequestration. The pCO₂ and pH are the dominant controlling factors in the DIC/δ¹³C/pH system. The fugacity of CO₂ has major impact on DIC concentrations at temperatures below 100 °C at high pCO₂. Temperature dependency of activities and equilibrium dominates at temperatures above 100 °C. Isotope ratios of DIC are expected to be about 1–2‰ more depleted in ¹³C compared to the free CO₂ at pCO₂ values above 10 bar. This depletion is controlled by carbon isotope fractionation between CO₂ and H₂CO₃* which is the dominant species of DIC at the resulting pH below 5.     

Are Wadden Sea tidal systems with a higher tidal range more resilient against sea level rise?

Accelerated sea level rise may have serious implications for the Wadden Sea ecosystem in its present state. If sediment accumulation rates on the extensive intertidal flats stay behind sea level rise, the flats will eventually submerge. Drowning of the flats has negative consequences for nature conservation and for coastal risk management. Based upon an evaluation of steady state relations for Wadden Sea tidal basins, Hofstede (Zeitschrift für Geomorphologie 59(3): 377-391, 2015) postulated that the capacity of these basins to balance sea level rise by accumulation on intertidal flats seems positively related to mean tidal range. In the present study, morphodynamical simulations with a numerical model were performed for two tidal basins in the German Wadden Sea to verify the empirically established hypothesis. The following conclusions are established. Larger mean tidal range improves the capacity of Wadden Sea tidal basins to balance sea level rise. Wadden Sea intertidal flats are effective sediment sinks and seem quite resilient against (higher rates of) sea level rise. Finally, subtidal gullies may constitute a significant sediment source for accumulation on intertidal flats in response to sea level rise. With respect to the limited comparability of the two investigated tidal systems, morphodynamical modelling of all Wadden Sea tidal systems should be conducted.     

A new ecotoxicological test method for genetically modified plants and other stressors in soil with the black fungus gnat <Emphasis Type="Italic">Bradysia impatiens</Emphasis> (Diptera): current status of test development and dietary effects of azadirachtin on larval development and emergence rate

Background

Few suitable and standardized test methods are currently available to test the effects of genetically modified plants (GMP) on non-target organisms. To fill this gap and improve ecotoxicological testing for GMP, we developed a new soil ecotoxicological test method using sciarid larvae as test organisms.

Results

Bradysia impatiens was identified as a candidate species. Species of the genus Bradysia occur in high numbers in European agroecosystems and B. impatiens can be reared in the laboratory in continuous culture. A functional basic test design was successfully developed. Newly hatched larvae were used as the initial life stage to cover most of the life cycle of the species during the test. Azadirachtin was identified as a suitable reference substance. In several tests, the effects of this substance on development time and emergence rate varied for different temperatures and test substrates. The toxicity was higher at 25 °C compared to 20 °C and in tropical artificial soil compared to coconut fiber substrate.

Conclusions and outlook

Results suggest that the developed test system is suitable to enter a full standardization process, e.g., via the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. Such a standardization would not only assist the risk assessment of GMP, but could include other stressors such as systemic pesticides or veterinary pharmaceuticals reaching the soil, e.g., via spreading manure. The use of sciarid flies as test organisms supports recommendations of EFSA, which stressed the ecological role of flies and encouraged including Diptera into test batteries.

     

Global population collapse in a superabundant migratory bird and illegal trapping in China

Persecution and overexploitation by humans are major causes of species extinctions. Rare species, often confined to small geographic ranges, are usually at highest risk, whereas extinctions of superabundant species with very large ranges are rare. The Yellow‐breasted Bunting (Emberiza aureola) used to be one of the most abundant songbirds of the Palearctic, with a very large breeding range stretching from Scandinavia to the Russian Far East. Anecdotal information about rapid population declines across the range caused concern about unsustainable trapping along the species’ migration routes. We conducted a literature review and used long‐term monitoring data from across the species’ range to model population trend and geographical patterns of extinction. The population declined by 84.3–94.7% between 1980 and 2013, and the species’ range contracted by 5000 km. Quantitative evidence from police raids suggested rampant illegal trapping of the species along its East Asian flyway in China. A population model simulating an initial harvest level of 2% of the population, and an annual increase of 0.2% during the monitoring period produced a population trajectory that matched the observed decline. We suggest that trapping strongly contributed to the decline because the consumption of Yellow‐breasted Bunting and other songbirds has increased as a result of economic growth and prosperity in East Asia. The magnitude and speed of the decline is unprecedented among birds with a comparable range size, with the exception of the Passenger Pigeon (Ectopistes migratorius), which went extinct in 1914 due to industrial‐scale hunting. Our results demonstrate the urgent need for an improved monitoring of common and widespread species’ populations, and consumption levels throughout East Asia.