Using Relative Risk to Compare the Effects of Aquatic Stressors at a Regional Scale

The regional-scale importance of an aquatic stressor depends both on its regional extent (i.e., how widespread it is) and on the severity of its effects in ecosystems where it is found. Sample surveys, such as those developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP), are designed to estimate and compare the extents, throughout a large region, of elevated conditions for various aquatic stressors. In this article, we propose relative risk as a complementary measure of the severity of each stressor’s effect on a response variable that characterizes aquatic ecological condition. Specifically, relative risk measures the strength of association between stressor and response variables that can be classified as either “good” (i.e., reference) or “poor” (i.e., different from reference). We present formulae for estimating relative risk and its confidence interval, adapted for the unequal sample inclusion probabilities employed in EMAP surveys. For a recent EMAP survey of streams in five Mid-Atlantic states, we estimated the relative extents of eight stressors as well as their relative risks to aquatic macroinvertebrate assemblages, with assemblage condition measured by an index of biotic integrity (IBI). For example, a measure of excess sedimentation had a relative risk of 1.60 for macroinvertebrate IBI, with the meaning that poor IBI conditions were 1.6 times more likely to be found in streams having poor conditions of sedimentation than in streams having good sedimentation conditions. We show how stressor extent and relative risk estimates, viewed together, offer a compact and comprehensive assessment of the relative importances of multiple stressors.     

Forest resources and household welfare: Empirical evidence from North Central Vietnam

Using secondary data from a socio-economic quantitative household survey of the North Central region of Vietnam, the main aim of our study is to analyze the causal effect of forest resources on household income and poverty. Based on the observed characteristics of a forest-based livelihood and forest-related activities, we use a propensity score matching (PSM) method to control for potential bias arising from self-selection. The PSM results indicate that households with a forest-based livelihood had a higher level of income and lower poverty rates than did those without. Interestingly, our findings confirm that a forest-based livelihood offers much higher income than any other type of livelihood adopted by local households. Also, the poverty rate among households with a forest-based livelihood is lower than those earning non-labor income or engaged in wage/crop and crop livelihoods. Among households and provinces, we find varying opportunities deriving from forest resources, suggesting that there are potential barriers hindering local households from pursuing a forest livelihood or participating in some forest activities. Therefore, government policy and regulations on forest management should focus on improving the access of households to forest resources, while enhancing the sustainability of these resources.     

Optimization of capture–recapture monitoring of elusive species illustrated with a threatened grasshopper

Information on population sizes and trends of threatened species is essential for their conservation, but obtaining reliable estimates can be challenging. We devised a method to improve the precision of estimates of population size obtained from capture–recapture studies for species with low capture and recapture probabilities and short seasonal activity, illustrated with population data of an elusive grasshopper (Prionotropis rhodanica). We used data from 5 capture–recapture studies to identify methodological and environmental factors affecting capture and recapture probabilities and estimates of population size. In a simulation, we used the population size and capture and recapture probability estimates obtained from the field studies to identify the minimum number of sampling occasions needed to obtain unbiased and robust estimates of population size. Based on these results we optimized the capture–recapture design, implemented it in 2 additional studies, and compared their precision with those of the nonoptimized studies. Additionally, we simulated scenarios based on thresholds of population size in criteria C and D of the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List to investigate whether estimates of population size for elusive species can reliably inform red-list assessments. Identifying parameters that affect capture and recapture probabilities (for the grasshopper time since emergence of first adults) and optimizing field protocols based on this information reduced study effort (−6% to −27% sampling occasions) and provided more precise estimates of population size (reduced coefficient of variation) compared with nonoptimized studies. Estimates of population size from the scenarios based on the IUCN thresholds were mostly unbiased and robust (only the combination of very small populations and little study effort produced unreliable estimates), suggesting capture–recapture can be considered reliable for informing red-list assessments. Although capture–recapture remains difficult and costly for elusive species, our optimization procedure can help determine efficient protocols to increase data quality and minimize monitoring effort.     

Catalytic oxidation of CO over Pt/Fe3O4 catalysts: Tuning O2 activation and CO adsorption

• Strong metal-support interaction exists on Pt/Fe₃O₄ catalysts. • Pt metal particles facilitate the formation of oxygen vacancies on Fe₃O₄. • Fe₃O₄ supports enhance the strength of CO adsorption on Pt metal particles. The self-inhibition behavior due to CO poisoning on Pt metal particles strongly impairs the performance of CO oxidation. It is an effective method to use reducible metal oxides for supporting Pt metal particles to avoid self-inhibition and to improve catalytic performance. In this work, we used in situ reductions of chloroplatinic acid on commercial Fe₃O₄ powder to prepare heterogeneous-structured Pt/Fe₃O₄ catalysts in the solution of ethylene glycol. The heterogeneous Pt/Fe₃O₄ catalysts achieved a better catalytic performance of CO oxidation compared with the Fe₃O₄ powder. The temperatures of 50% and 90% CO conversion were achieved above 260°C and 290°C at Pt/Fe₃O₄, respectively. However, they are accomplished on Fe₃O₄ at temperatures higher than 310°C. XRD, XPS, and H₂-TPR results confirmed that the metallic Pt atoms have a strong synergistic interaction with the Fe₃O₄ supports. TGA results and transient DRIFTS results proved that the Pt metal particles facilitate the release of lattice oxygen and the formation of oxygen vacancies on Fe₃O₄. The combined results of O₂-TPD and DRIFTS indicated that the activation step of oxygen molecules at surface oxygen vacancies could potentially be the rate-determining step of the catalytic CO oxidation at Pt/Fe₃O₄ catalysts. The reaction pathway involves a Pt-assisted Mars-van Krevelen (MvK) mechanism.     

Circumpolar status of Arctic ptarmigan: Population dynamics and trends

Rock ptarmigan (Lagopus muta) and willow ptarmigan (L. lagopus) are Arctic birds with a circumpolar distribution but there is limited knowledge about their status and trends across their circumpolar distribution. Here, we compiled information from 90 ptarmigan study sites from 7 Arctic countries, where almost half of the sites are still monitored. Rock ptarmigan showed an overall negative trend on Iceland and Greenland, while Svalbard and Newfoundland had positive trends, and no significant trends in Alaska. For willow ptarmigan, there was a negative trend in mid-Sweden and eastern Russia, while northern Fennoscandia, North America and Newfoundland had no significant trends. Both species displayed some periods with population cycles (short 3–6 years and long 9–12 years), but cyclicity changed through time for both species. We propose that simple, cost-efficient systematic surveys that capture the main feature of ptarmigan population dynamics can form the basis for citizen science efforts in order to fill knowledge gaps for the many regions that lack systematic ptarmigan monitoring programs.

     

Influence of Chronic Man-made Pollution on Bromus inermis Genome Size

Russian Journal of Ecology - Technogenic pollution can accelerate microevolutionary processes in natural populations. We estimated the nuclear DNA content of 10 Bromus inermis Leyss. samples from...     

Changes in motorcycle-related injuries and deaths after mandatory motorcycle helmet law in a district of Vietnam

Objective: Our study measured the change in head injuries and deaths among motorcycle users in Cu Chi district, a suburban district of Ho Chi Minh City.

Methods: Hospital records for road traffic injuries (RTIs) were collected from the Cu Chi Trauma Centre and motorcycle-related death records were obtained from mortality registries in commune health offices. Head injury severity was categorized using the Abbreviated Injury Score (AIS). Rate ratios (RRs) were used to compare rates pre- and post-law (2005/2006–2009/2010). Cu Chi's population, stratified by year, age, and sex, was used as the denominator.

Results: Of records identifying the transportation mode at the time of injury, motorcyclists accounted for most injuries (3,035, 87%) and deaths (238, 90%). Head injuries accounted for 70% of motorcycle-related hospitalizations. Helmet use was not recorded in any death records and not in 97% of medical records. Males accounted for most injuries (73%) and deaths (88%). The median age was 28 years and 32 years for injuries and deaths, respectively. Compared to the pre-law period, rates of motorcycle injuries (RR = 0.53; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.49–0.58), head injuries (RR = 0.35; 95% CI, 0.31–0.39), severe head injuries (RR = 0.47; 95% CI, 0.34–0.63), and deaths (RR = 0.69; 95% CI, 0.53–0.89) significantly decreased in the post-law period.

Conclusions: Rates of head injuries and deaths among motorcycle riders decreased significantly after implementation of the mandatory helmet law in Vietnam. To further examine the impact of the motorcycle helmet law, including compliance and helmet quality, further emphasis should be placed on gathering helmet use data from injured motorcyclists.     

Simulating and delineating future land change trajectories across Europe

Explorations of future land use change are important to understand potential conflicts between competing land uses, trade-offs associated with particular land change trajectories, and the effectiveness of policies to steer land systems into desirable states. Most model-based explorations and scenario studies focused on conversions in broad land use classes, but disregarded changes in land management or focused on individual sectors only. Using the European Union (EU) as a case study, we developed an approach to identifying typical combinations of land cover and management changes by combining the results of multimodel simulations in the agriculture and forest sectors for four scenarios from 2000 to 2040. We visualized land change trajectories by mapping regional hotspots of change. Land change trajectories differed in extent and spatial pattern across the EU and among scenarios, indicating trajectory-specific option spaces for alternative land system outcomes. In spite of the large variation in the area of change, similar hotspots of land change were observed among the scenarios. All scenarios indicate a stronger polarization of land use in Europe, with a loss of multifunctional landscapes. We analyzed locations subject to change by comparing location characteristics associated with certain land change trajectories. Results indicate differences in the location conditions of different land change trajectories, with diverging impacts on ecosystem service provisioning. Policy and planning for future land use needs to account for the spatial variation of land change trajectories to achieve both overarching and location-specific targets.

     

Assessing strategies to mitigate phosphorus leaching from drained clay soils

Assessing mitigation of phosphorus (P) leaching from subsurface drainage systems is challenging due to high spatial and temporal variation in leaching. Mean measured total P leaching from a clayey soil in an eight-year study period (four replicates per treatment) was (kg ha^?1 year^?1): 1.21 from shallow autumn tillage (ShT), 0.84 from unfertilised fallow (UF), 0.81 from conventional autumn ploughing (CT) and 0.57 from structure liming (SL–CT). Treatment was not significant using Richards–Baker flow index or a distance factor as covariate (p = 0.084 and 0.057). A tendency for lower leaching was obtained comparing SL-CT with ShT (p _adjusted = 0.060 and 0.009 respectively). A combination of measures adapted to drainage conditions and clay content in different parts of the field is proposed since P leaching was approximately halved from an adjacent field (4.3 ha) in a three-year post-period compared with a three-year pre-period for structure liming the entire field and drainage system renovation plus structure lime drain backfilling.     

A multi-agent simulation model for spatial optimisation of manure allocation

The EU Nitrate Directive has spurred many countries to regulate manure production and manure application. Farmers have three allocation options: spreading manure on their own land, transporting manure to other farmers' land or processing manure. The manure problem can be seen as an allocation problem. To better understand this allocation problem, we have developed the spatial mathematical programming multi-agent simulation (MP-MAS) model. This model has been applied in Flanders, Belgium, a region with a high concentration of livestock. The model evaluates the cost efficiency of policy intervention in the manure market through obliged processing. We propose to further optimise the policy using a regionally differentiated manure pressure indicator, which is directly derived from the dual outcome of the mathematical programme. This indicator increases transparency in the manure and processing market, leading to better decision support about location and type of manure processing.