An interactive simulation and visualization tool for flood analysis usable for practitioners

Developing strategies to mitigate or to adapt to the threats of floods is an important topic in the context of climate changes. Many of the world’s cities are endangered due to rising ocean levels and changing precipitation patterns. It is therefore crucial to develop analytical tools that allow us to evaluate the threats of floods and to investigate the influence of mitigation and adaptation measures, such as stronger dikes, adaptive spatial planning, and flood disaster plans. Up until the present, analytical tools have only been accessible to domain experts, as the involved simulation processes are complex and rely on computational and data-intensive models. Outputs of these analytical tools are presented to practitioners (i.e., policy analysts and political decision-makers) on maps or in graphical user interfaces. In practice, this output is only used in limited measure because practitioners often have different information requirements or do not trust the direct outcome. Nonetheless, literature indicates that a closer collaboration between domain experts and practitioners can ensure that the information requirements of practitioners are better aligned with the opportunities and limitations of analytical tools. The objective of our work is to present a step forward in the effort to make analytical tools in flood management accessible for practitioners to support this collaboration between domain experts and practitioners. Our system allows the user to interactively control the simulation process (addition of water sources or influence of rainfall), while a realistic visualization allows the user to mentally map the results onto the real world. We have developed several novel algorithms to present and interact with flood data. We explain the technologies, discuss their necessity alongside test cases, and introduce a user study to analyze the reactions of practitioners to our system. We conclude that, despite the complexity of flood simulation models and the size of the involved data sets, our system is accessible for practitioners of flood management so that they can carry out flood simulations together with domain experts in interactive work sessions. Therefore, this work has the potential to significantly change the decision-making process and may become an important asset in choosing sustainable flood mitigations and adaptation strategies.     

Predicting δCDIC dynamics in CCS: A scheme based on a review of inorganic carbon chemistry under elevated pressures and temperatures

Stable carbon isotopes are important tools to assess potential storage sites for CO₂, as they allow the quantification of ionic trapping via isotope mass balances. In deep geological formations high p/T conditions need to be considered, because CO₂ dissolution, equilibrium constants and isotope fractionation of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) depend on temperature, pressure and solute composition. After reviewing different approaches to account for these dependencies, an expanded scheme is presented for speciation and carbon isotope fractionation of DIC and dissolution of CaCO₃ for pCO₂ up to 100 bar, pH down to 3 and temperatures of up to 200 °C. The scheme evaluates the influence of respective parameters on isotope ratios during CO₂ sequestration. The pCO₂ and pH are the dominant controlling factors in the DIC/δ¹³C/pH system. The fugacity of CO₂ has major impact on DIC concentrations at temperatures below 100 °C at high pCO₂. Temperature dependency of activities and equilibrium dominates at temperatures above 100 °C. Isotope ratios of DIC are expected to be about 1–2‰ more depleted in ¹³C compared to the free CO₂ at pCO₂ values above 10 bar. This depletion is controlled by carbon isotope fractionation between CO₂ and H₂CO₃* which is the dominant species of DIC at the resulting pH below 5.     

On the importance of life history and age structure in biological invasions

The age specific patterns of reproduction and mortality dictated by the life history of an organism apply to potential invaders as well as resident species of an area, but whether certain life history traits are more invasive than others is an unresolved issue. We analyze a two-population system of an invading and a resident species and test the effects of age on the probability to invade when the organisms are iteroparous or semelparous. The life history characteristics of the populations are projected in Leslie matrices, and the probability that the invader exceeds different population sizes is calculated by Monte Carlo analysis. The simulations show that (a) the invasion probability of an iteroparous organism increases with age until the individuals introduced are mature for first reproduction, and then becomes independent of age; (b) the invasion probability is more age sensitive for iteroparous organisms with high juvenile mortality (Type III organisms) than for those with a lower (Type I); (c) invading semelparous organisms are most affected by competition from resident organisms; (d) variations in vital rates of semelparous residents have greater influence on the invasion probability of an iteroparous organism than variations in traits of the invader.     

A new bolosaurid parareptile, Belebey chengi sp. nov., from the Middle Permian of China and its paleogeographic significance

A new bolosaurid parareptile, Belebey chengi sp. nov., is described from Dashankou, Gansu Province, China, a Middle Permian locality which is known mostly for its therapsid fauna. The material consists of well-preserved mandibular and anterior skull remains and currently represents the largest and latest surviving member of Bolosauridae. Phylogenetic analysis of bolosaurid interrelationships, the first analysis of any clade of Early Permian parareptiles, indicates that the new taxon groups consistently with the other (Russian) members of the genus Belebey, and forms the sister clade to the genus Bolosaurus from North America. The Early Permian Eudibamus cursoris from Germany falls into the basal most position within Bolosauridae. Our analysis also shows that the split between the main bolosaurid lineages must have occurred near or before the Permo-Carboniferous boundary and that the paleo-equatorial region of Laurasia probably served as the center of origination for these parareptiles. A similar pattern can be found in other clades of Paleozoic amniotes, suggesting that this may be the general trend in early amniote evolution.     

Reforming the CDM for sustainable development: lessons learned and policy futures

The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) has successfully demonstrated that market-based mechanisms can achieve some cost effective emissions reductions in developing countries. However the distribution of CDM projects has been extremely uneven across countries and regions, and a few technologies and sectors have dominated the early stages of CDM experience. This has caused some to question whether the CDM has fallen short of its potential in contributing to sustainable development. We review the broad patterns of CDM project approvals and evaluate 10 CDM projects according to their sustainability benefits. The difficulty of defining “sustainable development” and the process of defining criteria by individual non-Annex 1 governments has meant that sustainable development concerns have been marginalized in some countries. Given these observed limitations, we present possible CDM policy futures, focusing on the main proposals for a post-2012 climate regime. Five options for enhancing the sustainable development benefits in the CDM are discussed, including proactive approaches to favour eligibility of emission reduction projects which ensure such co-benefits.     

Biochar—One way forward for soil carbon in offset mechanisms in Africa?

The Kyoto Protocol's Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) has had relatively little success in Africa due to a number of factors. Increases in agricultural soil carbon have strong benefits for soil health as well as potential for carbon sequestration, but such projects are currently excluded from the CDM and other offset mechanisms. Small-scale biochar systems with net emission reductions may hold a key for Africa to engage with the international offset mechanisms and open the door to soil carbon sequestration projects.     

Olfactory host finding, intermediate memory and its potential ecological adaptation in Nasonia vitripennis

Associative learning of host-associated chemical cues was studied in Nasonia vitripennis, a parasitoid of fly pupae in nests of hole-nesting birds. When females encountered a fly pupa and performed one sequence of host recognition behaviour including drilling the ovipositor into the host in the presence of the artificial odour furfurylheptanoate (FFH), they were afterwards arrested by FFH in olfactometer experiments. The response vanished after 4 days and could be blocked after 3 days by feeding wasps with ethacrynic acid prior and after the training. This indicates the formation of an intermediate form of memory by one host experience in N. vitripennis. Interestingly, the trained wasps avoided odours that were not present during the host encounter, although naive wasps did not react to these odours. This unique behaviour probably causes wasps to focus during host searching on those chemical cues they have experienced in the host environment. Studies in nests of hole-nesting birds revealed that about 30% of all nests contained only one fly pupa, and laboratory studies showed that N. vitripennis females are able to parasitise around 100 fly pupae in their life. It is discussed that under these conditions, the formation of a non-permanent intermediate memory for host-associated odours after one host encounter is adaptive to avoid costs involved with formation and maintenance of memory for misleading cues. The demonstration of associative olfactory learning in N. vitripennis, the first parasitoid species with sequenced genome, opens the gate to study molecular mechanisms of memory formation and its ecological adaptation in parasitoids.     

Are Wadden Sea tidal systems with a higher tidal range more resilient against sea level rise?

Accelerated sea level rise may have serious implications for the Wadden Sea ecosystem in its present state. If sediment accumulation rates on the extensive intertidal flats stay behind sea level rise, the flats will eventually submerge. Drowning of the flats has negative consequences for nature conservation and for coastal risk management. Based upon an evaluation of steady state relations for Wadden Sea tidal basins, Hofstede (Zeitschrift für Geomorphologie 59(3): 377-391, 2015) postulated that the capacity of these basins to balance sea level rise by accumulation on intertidal flats seems positively related to mean tidal range. In the present study, morphodynamical simulations with a numerical model were performed for two tidal basins in the German Wadden Sea to verify the empirically established hypothesis. The following conclusions are established. Larger mean tidal range improves the capacity of Wadden Sea tidal basins to balance sea level rise. Wadden Sea intertidal flats are effective sediment sinks and seem quite resilient against (higher rates of) sea level rise. Finally, subtidal gullies may constitute a significant sediment source for accumulation on intertidal flats in response to sea level rise. With respect to the limited comparability of the two investigated tidal systems, morphodynamical modelling of all Wadden Sea tidal systems should be conducted.     

A new ecotoxicological test method for genetically modified plants and other stressors in soil with the black fungus gnat <Emphasis Type="Italic">Bradysia impatiens</Emphasis> (Diptera): current status of test development and dietary effects of azadirachtin on larval development and emergence rate

Background

Few suitable and standardized test methods are currently available to test the effects of genetically modified plants (GMP) on non-target organisms. To fill this gap and improve ecotoxicological testing for GMP, we developed a new soil ecotoxicological test method using sciarid larvae as test organisms.

Results

Bradysia impatiens was identified as a candidate species. Species of the genus Bradysia occur in high numbers in European agroecosystems and B. impatiens can be reared in the laboratory in continuous culture. A functional basic test design was successfully developed. Newly hatched larvae were used as the initial life stage to cover most of the life cycle of the species during the test. Azadirachtin was identified as a suitable reference substance. In several tests, the effects of this substance on development time and emergence rate varied for different temperatures and test substrates. The toxicity was higher at 25 °C compared to 20 °C and in tropical artificial soil compared to coconut fiber substrate.

Conclusions and outlook

Results suggest that the developed test system is suitable to enter a full standardization process, e.g., via the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. Such a standardization would not only assist the risk assessment of GMP, but could include other stressors such as systemic pesticides or veterinary pharmaceuticals reaching the soil, e.g., via spreading manure. The use of sciarid flies as test organisms supports recommendations of EFSA, which stressed the ecological role of flies and encouraged including Diptera into test batteries.