Predicting the conservation status of data‐deficient species

There is little appreciation of the level of extinction risk faced by one‐sixth of the over 65,000 species assessed by the International Union for Conservation of Nature. Determining the status of these data‐deficient (DD) species is essential to developing an accurate picture of global biodiversity and identifying potentially threatened DD species. To address this knowledge gap, we used predictive models incorporating species’ life history, geography, and threat information to predict the conservation status of DD terrestrial mammals. We constructed the models with 7 machine learning (ML) tools trained on species of known status. The resultant models showed very high species classification accuracy (up to 92%) and ability to correctly identify centers of threatened species richness. Applying the best model to DD species, we predicted 313 of 493 DD species (64%) to be at risk of extinction, which increases the estimated proportion of threatened terrestrial mammals from 22% to 27%. Regions predicted to contain large numbers of threatened DD species are already conservation priorities, but species in these areas show considerably higher levels of risk than previously recognized. We conclude that unless directly targeted for monitoring, species classified as DD are likely to go extinct without notice. Taking into account information on DD species may therefore help alleviate data gaps in biodiversity indicators and conserve poorly known biodiversity. Predección del Estado de Conservación de Especies con Deficiencia de Datos     

Identifying impediments to long‐distance mammal migrations

In much of the world, the persistence of long‐distance migrations by mammals is threatened by development. Even where human population density is relatively low, there are roads, fencing, and energy development that present barriers to animal movement. If we are to conserve species that rely on long‐distance migration, then it is critical that we identify existing migration impediments. To delineate stopover sites associated with anthropogenic development, we applied Brownian bridge movement models to high‐frequency locations of pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. We then used resource utilization functions to assess the threats to long‐distance migration of pronghorn that were due to fences and highways. Migrating pronghorn avoided dense developments of natural gas fields. Highways with relatively high volumes of traffic and woven‐wire sheep fence acted as complete barriers. At crossings with known migration bottlenecks, use of high?quality forage and shrub habitat by pronghorn as they approached the highway was lower than expected based on availability of those resources. In contrast, pronghorn consistently utilized high?quality forage close to the highway at crossings with no known migration bottlenecks. Our findings demonstrate the importance of minimizing development in migration corridors in the future and of mitigating existing pressure on migratory animals by removing barriers, reducing the development footprint, or installing crossing structures. Identificación de los Impedimentos para las Migraciones de Larga Distancia de Mamíferos     

A framework for evaluating the impact of the IUCN Red List of threatened species

The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species, a species extinction risk assessment tool, has been guiding conservation efforts for over 5 decades. It is widely assumed to have been instrumental in preventing species from moving closer to extinction and driving recoveries. However, the impact of the IUCN Red List in guiding conservation has not been evaluated. We conducted, transcribed, and coded interviews with experts who use the IUCN Red List across a range of sectors to understand how the list is used in conservation. We developed a theory of change to illustrate how and why change is expected to occur along causal pathways contributing to the long-term goal of the IUCN Red List and an evaluation framework with indicators for measuring the impact of the IUCN Red List in generating scientific knowledge, raising awareness among stakeholders, designating priority conservation sites, allocating funding and resources, influencing development of legislation and policy, and guiding targeted conservation action (key themes). Red-list assessments were the primary input leading to outputs (scientific knowledge, raised awareness), outcomes (better informed priority setting, access to funding and resource availability, improved legislation and policy), and impact (implemented conservation action leading to positive change) that have resulted in achievement of IUCN Red List goals. To explore feasibility of attributing the difference made by the IUCN Red List across themes, we studied increased scientific knowledge, raised awareness, access to funding and resource allocation, and increased conservation activity. The feasibility exploration showed increased scientific knowledge over time identified through positive trends in publications referring to the IUCN Red List in the literature; raised awareness of the list following high IUCN activity identified by peaks in online search activity; an increased proportion of conservation funding bodies requesting IUCN Red List status in the application process; and, based on interviews with Amphibian Specialist Group members, red-list assessments were essential in connecting relevant stakeholders and ensuring conservation action. Although we identified the IUCN Red List as a vital tool in global conservation efforts, it was challenging to measure specific impacts because of its ubiquitous nature. We are the first to identify the influence of the IUCN Red List on conservation.     

Application of multiple-population viability analysis to evaluate species recovery alternatives

Population viability analysis (PVA) is a powerful conservation tool, but it remains impractical for many species, particularly species with multiple, broadly distributed populations for which collecting suitable data can be challenging. A recently developed method of multiple-population viability analysis (MPVA), however, addresses many limitations of traditional PVA. We built on previous development of MPVA for Lahontan cutthroat trout (LCT) (Oncorhynchus clarkii henshawi), a species listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act, that is distributed broadly across habitat fragments in the Great Basin (U.S.A.). We simulated potential management scenarios and assessed their effects on population sizes and extinction risks in 211 streams, where LCT exist or may be reintroduced. Conservation populations (those managed for recovery) tended to have lower extinction risks than nonconservation populations (mean = 19.8% vs. 52.7%), but not always. Active management or reprioritization may be warranted in some cases. Eliminating non-native trout had a strong positive effect on overall carrying capacities for LCT populations but often did not translate into lower extinction risks unless simulations also reduced associated stochasticity (to the mean for populations without non-native trout). Sixty fish or 5–10 fish/km was the minimum reintroduction number and density, respectively, that provided near-maximum reintroduction success. This modeling framework provided crucial insights and empirical justification for conservation planning and specific adaptive management actions for this threatened species. More broadly, MPVA is applicable to a wide range of species exhibiting geographic rarity and limited availability of abundance data and greatly extends the potential use of empirical PVA for conservation assessment and planning.     

Using average autonomy to test whether behavioral syndromes constrain evolution

Genetic correlations between behaviors underlying a behavioral syndrome may constrain the capacity of a population to respond to selection on these behaviors. Average autonomy quantifies the extent in which estimated genetic (co)variances constrain the rate of evolutionary change of behavioral traits forming a syndrome when these traits are under selections in all possible directions of multivariate trait-space. However, it is not clear whether a calculated average autonomy value of an observed syndrome constitutes a significant evolutionary constraint or not. I here outline an approach for testing evolutionary constraint in a syndrome, which is based on comparing the observed genetic (co)variance structure to the one where the genetic covariances are assumed to be zero and taking onboard the uncertainty in the (co)variances between behaviors into the calculations of average autonomy. The approach can be implemented in the context of parametric bootstrap or Bayesian statistics, and I provide a worked example of the latter. I further highlight that when genetic (co)variances are unattainable, the between-individual (co)variances act as an interesting proxy, which is within reach for many behavioral studies. I provide R code for all calculations.     

Effect of fluid concentration in titanium machining with an atomization-based cutting fluid (ACF) spray system

The aim of this work is to investigate the effect of metal-working fluid (MWF) concentration on the machining responses including tool life and wear, cutting force, friction coefficient, chip morphology, and surface roughness during the machining of titanium with the use of the ACF spray system. Five different concentrations from 5 to 15% of a water-soluble metalworking fluid (MWF) were applied during turning of a titanium alloy, Ti–6Al–4V. The thermo-physical properties such as viscosity, surface tension and thermal conductivity of these concentrations were also measured. The test results demonstrate that the tool life first extends with the increase in MWF concentration and then drops with further increase. At low concentration (e.g., 5%), a lack of the lubrication effect causes to increase in a higher friction at the tool–chip interface resulting in severe chipping and tool nose/flank wear within a short machining time. On the other hand, at high concentration, the cooling effect is less. This increases cutting temperature and a faster thermal softening/chipping/notching of the tool material and higher friction at the tool–chip–workpiece interaction zones resulting in early tool failure. A good balance between the cooling and the lubrication effects seems to be found at the 10% MWF concentration as it offers the best machining performance. However, machining with flood coolant is observed to perform the best in the range of 5–7%.     

Methods for the transcervical collection of fetal cells during the first trimester of pregnancy

Before termination of pregnancy, four techniques for retrieving fetal cells transcervically were investigated: uterine lavage, endocervical lavage, cytobrush and mucus aspiration. The yield of fetal cells in these samples was studied and found to be somewhat better after uterine lavage. A preliminary assessment of the safety of mucus aspiration was carried out before transcervical chorionic villus sampling (CVS) in continuing pregnancies. No difference in outcome to a control group having only CVS was found.     

Simulating the effects of frequent fire on southern California coastal shrublands.

Fire disturbance is a primary agent of change in the mediterranean-climate chaparral shrublands of southern California, USA. However, fire frequency has been steadily increasing in coastal regions due to ignitions at the growing wildland-urban interface. Although chaparral is resilient to a range of fire frequencies, successively short intervals between fires can threaten the persistence of some species, and the effects may differ according to plant functional type. California shrublands support high levels of biological diversity, including many endangered and endemic species. Therefore, it is important to understand the long-term effects of altered fire regimes on these communities. A spatially explicit simulation model of landscape disturbance and succession (LANDIS) was used to predict the effects of frequent fire on the distribution of dominant plant functional types in a study area administered by the National Park Service. Shrubs dependent on fire-cued seed germination were most sensitive to frequent fire and lost substantial cover to other functional types, including drought-deciduous subshrubs that typify coastal sage scrub and nonnative annual grasses. Shrubs that resprout were favored by higher fire frequencies and gained in extent under these treatments. Due to this potential for vegetation change, caution is advised against the widespread use of prescribed fire in the region.     

Effects of suspended and sedimented clays on juvenile hard clams,<Emphasis Type="Italic"> Mercenaria mercenaria</Emphasis>, within the context of harmful algal bloom mitigation

Increased interest in using ecologically inert clays to flocculate, sediment, and thus mitigate harmful algal blooms at nearshore mariculture sites has prompted studies on the effectiveness of this method on prolific blooms, such as those caused by the neurotoxic dinoflagellate Karenia brevis in the Gulf of Mexico. Potential repercussions of this control strategy revolve around the increased flux of suspended particles to the benthos. Juvenile suspension-feeding bivalves are potentially vulnerable as they could suffer burial, a decrease in clearance rates, and/or an increase in pseudofeces production in response to suspended clay, leading to reduced growth and delay in attaining size refuge from predators. Here we assess lethal and sublethal effects on juvenile hard clams, Mercenaria mercenaria, in a 2-week flume application of phosphatic clay to simulated blooms of the nontoxic dinoflagellates Heterocapsa triquetra and Prorocentrum micans. Flow regimes simulated two contrasting, worst-case field conditions where (1) low flow allowed complete sedimentation and formation of a benthic sediment layer, and (2) high flow allowed complete particle suspension. No clam mortalities occurred in either treatment. The sedimentation treatment showed variable growth inhibition in shell and/or tissue, but effects were not apparent compared to controls (no sediment layer), and clams rapidly resumed siphon contact with the overlying water column. In contrast, a strong growth effect (~90% reduction in shell and tissue growth) occurred in particle-suspension trials compared to no-clay controls. These results suggest that repeated clay applications in the field are likely more detrimental to clams in a high-energy environment leading to prolonged in situ resuspension of clay than in an environment favoring sedimentation.Communicated by R.J. Thompson, St. Johns