Flexibility,learning, and irreversibility in environmental decisions: A bayesian approach

The Bayes decision is characterized and studied for a two-period decision problem involving a proposed resource development project. It is assumed that development is irreversible and that expectations about benefits and costs during the second period vary with experiences resulting from the first-period action. The amount and types of learning achieved depend upon the particular action taken during the first period. Flexible sequential decision procedures are compared with fixed once-and-for-all decisions. It is shown that under this specification, optimal development decisions are not necessarily more conservative when a sequential procedure is used. The possibility of reneging on a fixed decision is formally specified and studied.     

Flexible seed selection by individual harvester ants, Pogonomyrmex occidentalis

Summary Individual seed harvester ants (Pogonomyrmex) have been shown to specialize on specific seed types. We examined possible mechanisms for seed specialization and tested whether fidelity to food type limits the foraging decisions of individual western harvester ants, Pogonomyrmex occidentalis. The seed selection regimes of individually marked ants foraging at piles of two seed types were described and related to differences in seed quality and colonial dietary history. Individual foraging choices were affected by multiple factors, including seed caloric rewards, the previous seed selected, and the dietary history of the colony. Individual seed choices generally converged on the most energetically profitable species, suggesting that foragers exhibit labile preference. However, for a portion of the foragers, seed specialization was also partially due to constancy, defined as a tendency to select seed species that were previously collected. When colonies were presented with one seed type for 1 h and then were offered a mix of that seed and a novel seed type, individuals showed a strong preference for the novel seeds. Such rapid changes in seed preference argue strongly that individual P. occidentalis ants are highly flexible in seed choice and that resource assessment by these ants is more complex than simple maximization of net energetic return.Offprint requests to: J.H. Fewell at the current address     

Protandry in western cicada killer wasps, (Sphecius grandis,Hymenoptera: Sphecidae): an empirical study of emergence time and mating opportunity

Summary Sphecius grandis is a univoltine, colonial wasp. Females mate once and are sexually receptive when they emerge in July and early August. Males generally emerge earlier in the summer than females. The opportunity for each male to acquire mates is a function of the number of females emerging during his lifetime and the number of competitiors that are active when the females emerge. I determined a mating opportunity index (MOI) for each male in an aggregation of wasps for three separate summers, and correlated the MOI of individual males with their emergence date. The MOI of a male estimates the potential contribution that timing of emergence makes to his reproductive success. In 1984 males emerging near the mean of the male emergence distribution had the highest MOI. These males emerged between one and two weeks prior to the mean female emergence date. However, in 1981 late emerging males had the highest MOI. In 1983 there was no significant difference in MOI among males. As a result of between-year variation in female emergence schedules and in the duration of male lifetime, the selection pressures influencing male emergence time vary between years.     

Analysis of anaerobic BTX biodegradation in a subarctic aquifer using isotopes and benzylsuccinates

In situ biodegradation of benzene, toluene, and xylenes in a petroleum hydrocarbon contaminated aquifer near Fairbanks, Alaska was assessed using carbon and hydrogen compound specific isotope analysis (CSIA) of benzene and toluene and analysis of signature metabolites for toluene (benzylsuccinate) and xylenes (methylbenzylsuccinates). Carbon and hydrogen isotope ratios of benzene were between -25.9 per thousand and -26.8 per thousand for delta13C and -119 per thousand and -136 per thousand for delta2H, suggesting that biodegradation of benzene is unlikely at this site. However, biodegradation of both xylenes and toluene were documented in this subarctic aquifer. Biodegradation of xylenes was indicated by the presence of methylbenzylsuccinates with concentrations of 17-50 microg/L in three wells. Anaerobic toluene biodegradation was also indicated by benzylsuccinate concentrations of 10-49 microg/L in the three wells with the highest toluene concentrations (1500-5000 microg/L toluene). Since benzylsuccinate typically accounts for a very small fraction of the toluene present in groundwater (generally <1 mol%), the signature metabolite approach works best at higher toluene concentrations when it is not constrained by detection limits. In wells with lower toluene concentrations (410-640 microg/L), carbon and hydrogen isotopic values were enriched by up to approximately 2 per thousand for delta13C and approximately 70 per thousand for delta2H. This evidence of isotopic fractionation verifies the effects of biodegradation in these low concentration wells where metabolites may already be below detection limits. The combined use of signature metabolite and CSIA data is particularly valuable given the challenge of verifying biodegradation in subarctic environments where degradation rates are typically much slower than in temperate environments.     

Detection limits of optical gas imagers as a function of temperature differential and distance

Optical gas imaging (OGI) is an effective tool for detecting gas leaks from process equipment. Despite the fact that OGI has been used for leak detection for over a decade, its detection limit is an elusive performance metric and has not been systematically characterized and quantified like other detection instruments. A substantial body of research has been performed that has shed some light on the OGI detection limits and the factors that dictate the detection limits. The OGI detection limit expressed as ppm-m and ppm now can be quantified as a function of ΔT (differential temperature between the gas plume and the background), the OGI camera type, and the specific gas in question. Furthermore, the OGI detection limit expressed as grams per hour can be calculated based on the ΔT and the distance from the OGI camera to the leak location under common leak survey conditions. For the same OGI camera, the detection limit can vary by several orders of magnitude due to ΔT and distance. The present work has demonstrated how different OGI detection limits can be. More importantly, this work has, for the first time, formulated equations that can be used to determine OGI detection limits with a given set of leak detection conditions. Being able to quantify OGI detection limit and understand the variables that dictate the detection limit is a significant advancement. It will help OGI to become accepted as a mature field instrument. The variables characterized in this work should have an impact on the development of OGI leak survey protocols, such as Appendix K to Code of Federal Regulations 40 CFR Part 60 in the United States. Established detection limits will also help emission inventory for fugitive emissions when OGI is used as the sole leak detection method.

Implications: Optical gas imaging (OGI) has been used for leak detection and control of fugitive volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions and methane emissions due to equipment leaks. However, detection limits of OGI have not been characterized and quantified like other detection instruments. The lack of well-understood detection limits has hindered broader applications of OGI. The work presented in this paper represents important steps that will enable OGI users and policymakers to establish (1) OGI detection limits under various conditions, (2) OGI leak survey criteria for a desired minimum detectable leak size, and (3) maximum potential emissions from the nondetect sources in emission inventory studies.     

Humic acid complexation of basic and neutral polycyclic aromatic compounds

Complexation by humic acid (HA) of basic (quinoline) and neutral (naphthalene) polycyclic aromatic compounds (PACs) was compared using fluorescence spectroscopy and equilibrium dialysis (ED). These compounds sorb to HA via cation exchange and hydrophobic interactions, respectively. Ionization of quinoline strongly affects its sorption to HA; maximum sorption is observed at pH close to logKb (4.92), and competition with H+ and electrolyte cation (Li+) is evident. Spectroscopic experiments indicate that quinolinium (QH+) cation fluorescence is quenched via a static mechanism (i.e., a dark complex is formed) when the protonated form is adsorbed via ion exchange to HA. The extent of sorption, calculated from fluorescence data using the Stern-Volmer equation, was compared to independent ED measurements. Although both methods indicated the same trends with solution chemistry, fluorescence quenching data suggested more extensive complexation than that measured using ED. In contrast to ionizable PACs, studied here and previously, interaction of naphthalene with HA is unaffected by changes in solution conditions (pH, ionic strength).     

Molecular evidence of fetal-derived chromosome 21 markers (STRs) in transcervical samples

Transcervical cells (TCCs), collected by flushing or aspiration at 8–13 weeks of gestation, were analysed for the presence of fetal-derived DNA sequences. DNA extracted from maternal peripheral blood, TCC samples, and placental tissue was amplified by the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) to detect small tandem repeat (STR) markers specific to chromosome 21. STR products of fetal origin could be clearly observed in four TCC samples. TCC samples collected by flushing or aspiration were also analysed by fluorescent in situ hybridization (FISH) using X and Y probes simultaneously: 46,XY cells could be detected in all TCC samples obtained from mothers with male fetuses.     

Detection of fetal cells in transcervical samples and prenatal diagnosis of chromosomal abnormalities

Transcervical samples collected by lavage, aspiration, and cytobrush from women between 6 and 13 weeks of gestation were tested for the presence of fetal cells using fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) with probes for chromosomes X, Y, 1, and 21, and by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) amplification of DNA sequences derived from chromosomes X, Y, and 21. With a few exceptions, a good correlation was observed between the results of sexing the fetuses using FISH or PCR on transcervical cell (TCC) samples retrieved by lavage and those obtained by testing fetal (placental) tissue. In a comparative study between TCC samples collected by lavage or cytobrush, the sex of the fetus was correctly diagnosed by PCR amplification of a Y-derived DNA sequence. Variable results were observed with samples obtained by aspiration, mainly because this procedure was found to be more prone to failure to remove thick mucus without previous injection of physiological saline. Chromosome 21-derived small tandem repeats (STRs) of fetal origin were successfully detected in about 40 per cent of TCC samples recovered by lavage. Two cases of chromosomal abnormalities, one of trisomy 21 and one of triploidy, were detected in TCC samples in the course of our investigations.     

大型动物的种群恢复:大象种群增长的生态学效应

博茨瓦纳北部及其毗邻地区分布着世界上最大的非洲象种群(Loxodonta africana),而在100年前,由于过度捕猎,大象的种群数量极为稀少.