The crux with reducing emissions in the long-term: The underestimated “now” versus the overestimated “then”

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change - The focus of this perspective piece is on memory, persistence, and explainable outreach of forced systems, with greenhouse gas (GHG)...     

Correlation between the seasonal distribution of harbour porpoises and their prey in the Sound,Baltic Sea

Low densities of harbour porpoises in winter (November–March) and high densities in summer (April–October) were found in the Sound, connecting the Baltic Sea and Kattegat. Due to their high energy requirements, it is hypothesized that the density of harbour porpoises is related to local prey abundance. This was tested by examining the stomach content of 53 harbour porpoises collected between 1987 and 2010 in the Sound (high season, 34 porpoises; low season, 19 porpoises). A total of 1,442 individual fish specimens from thirteen species were identified. Twelve of these were present in the high–porpoise density season and seven in the low-density season. The distribution of occurrence and the distribution of number of fish species were different between seasons, indicating a shift in prey intake between seasons. Furthermore, during the high-density season, the mean and total prey weight per stomach as well as the prey species diversity was higher. However, no difference was found in the number of prey species between the two seasons, indicating a higher quality of prey in the high-density season. Atlantic cod was found to be the main prey species in terms of weight in the high-density season while Atlantic herring and Atlantic cod were equally important during the low-density season. Prey availability and predictability are suggested as the main drivers for harbour porpoise distribution, and this could be caused by the formation of frontal zones in spring in the northern part of the Sound, leading to prey concentrations in predictable areas.     

Model testing using data on 131I released from Hanford

The Hanford test scenario described an accidental release of 131I to the environment from the Hanford Purex Chemical Separations Plant in September 1963. Based on monitoring data collected after the release, this scenario was used by the Dose Reconstruction Working Group of BIOMASS to test models typically used in dose reconstructions. The primary exposure pathway in terms of contribution to human doses was ingestion of contaminated milk and vegetables. Predicted mean doses to the thyroid of reference individuals from ingestion of 131I ranged from 0.0001 to 0.8 mSv. For one location, predicted doses to the thyroids of two children with high milk consumption ranged from 0.006 to 2 mSv. The predicted deposition at any given location varied among participants by a factor of 5-80. The exercise provided an opportunity for comparison of assessment methods and conceptual approaches, testing model predictions against measurements, and identifying the most important contributors to uncertainty in the assessment result. Key factors affecting predictions included the approach to handling incomplete data, interpretation of input information, selection of parameter values, adjustment of models for site-specific conditions, and treatment of uncertainties.     

Use of Soil and Water Protection Practices Among Farmers in Three Midwest Watersheds

Data were collected from 1011 farmers in three Midwestern watersheds (Ohio, Iowa, and Minnesota) to assess factors that influence the use of conservation production systems at the farm level. The “vested interests” perspective used to guide the investigation was derived from elements of social learning and social exchange theories. Respondents were asked to indicate their frequency of use for 18 agricultural production practices that could be adopted on Midwestern farms at the time of the study. Responses to the 18 items were summed to form a composite variable, termed “conservation production index,” for use as the dependent variable in multivariate analysis. Eleven independent variables were identified from the theory as likely predictors of conservation adoption, including respondents' perceptions about production costs, output and risks, and perceived importance of access to subsidies, technical assistance, and informational/educational programs. Regression analysis was used to assess the performance of the independent variables in explaining variance in the conservation production index. Explained variance in the three regression models ranged from 2% in the Minnesota watershed to 19% in the Ohio watershed. The researchers concluded that the model had limited utility in predicting adoption of conservation production systems within the three study watersheds. Findings are discussed in the context of conservation programs within the three areas.     

Uncertainties of a Regional Terrestrial Biota Full Carbon Account: A Systems Analysis

We discuss the background and methods for estimating uncertainty in a holistic manner in a regional terrestrial biota Full Carbon Account (FCA) using our experience in generating such an account for vast regions in northern Eurasia (at national and macroregional levels). For such an analysis, it is important to (1) provide a full account; (2) consider the relevance of a verified account, bearing in mind further transition to a certified account; (3) understand that any FCA is a fuzzy system; and (4) understand that a comprehensive assessment of uncertainties requires multiple harmonizing and combining of system constraints from results obtained by different methods. An important result of this analysis is the conclusion that only a relevant integration of inventory, process-based models, and measurements in situ generate sufficient prerequisites for a verified FCA. We show that the use of integrated methodology, at the current level of knowledge, and the system combination of available information, allow a verified FCA for large regions of the northern hemisphere to be made for current periods and for the recent past.     

Accounting for Climate Change: Introduction

The assessment of greenhouse gases (GHGs) emitted to and removed from the atmosphere is high on both political and scientific agendas internationally. As increasing international concern and cooperation aim at policy-oriented solutions to the climate change problem, several issues have begun to arise regarding verification and compliance under both proposed and legislated schemes meant to reduce the human-induced global climate impact. The approaches to addressing uncertainty introduced in this article attempt to improve national inventories or to provide a basis for the standardization of inventory estimates to enable comparison of emissions and emission changes across countries. Authors of the accompanying articles use detailed uncertainty analyses to enforce the current structure of the emission trading system and attempt to internalize high levels of uncertainty by tailoring the emissions trading market rules. Assessment of uncertainty can help improve inventories and manage risk. Through recognizing the importance of, identifying and quantifying uncertainties, great strides can be made in the process of Accounting for Climate Change.     

AN ASSESSMENT OF USES MADE OF A MULTIPURPOSE RESERVOIR'

ABSTRACT: Data were collected from residents of a rural community at two time periods to assess attitudes toward uses made of a reservoir which had been recently constructed in the area. The findings revealed that attitudes became significantly more favorable for flood control, water supply, and recreation uses of the reservoir. Attitudes toward fish and wildlife conservation use were not significantly different over time but these uses were perceived positively at both time periods. The data were also analyzed in the context of a vested interest perspective using cross-sectional design. The findings demonstrated that the theoretical model used to guide the investigation was quite useful in predicting attitudes toward the four uses examined.