Models to Assess the Risk of Snow and Wind Damage in Pine, Spruce, and Birch Forests in Sweden

3 are damaged annually by snow and wind, roughly corresponding to a value of US$150 million, and in Europe, the damage amounts to hundreds of millions of US dollars each year. To help to reduce these losses, tools for risk assessment within forest management have been developed. Predictions were developed of the risk of damage from snow and wind to Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.), Norway spruce [Picea abies (L.) Karst.] and Birch (Betula spp. L.) plots using tree, stand, and site characteristics. The data were obtained from 6756 permanent sample plots within the Swedish National Forest Inventory, which were inventoried twice at five-year intervals between 1983 and 1992. Input data for model development used measurements from the first inventory of tree characteristics for the largest sample tree, stand, and site data, and records of snow and wind damage from the second inventory. Models were developed for three different regions for pine- and spruce-dominated sites, while models for the whole country were developed for birch sites. In general the estimated proportion of damaged plots was highly overestimated (31.7%–56.2%), compared with the observed proportion of 3.4%–11.9%. The models for Norway spruce comprising tree, stand, and site data show the best predictability of damaged plots, with 60.6%–67.6% of plots correctly classified. It is concluded that the models developed can be used to detect sites with a high probability of damage from snow and wind, and thus be used as tools to reduce future damage and costs in practical forestry.     

Climate change impacts on tree crop suitability in Southeast Asia

Regional Environmental Change - Understanding popular attitudes to climate change can be important in developing effective climate adaptation responses. However, in the Pacific region, which is at...     

A high-definition spatially explicit modelling approach for national greenhouse gas emissions from industrial processes: reducing the errors and uncertainties in global emission modelling

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change - Industrial processes cause significant emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) to the atmosphere and, therefore, have high mitigation and...     

The development of new environmental policies and processes in response to a crisis: the case of the multiple barrier approach for safe drinking water

While new environmental policies and procedures often are developed incrementally, they can also result from crises or other significant events. In situations where policies and procedures are introduced in response to a crisis, questions about the strengths and weaknesses of existing mechanisms, and the extent to which they can be used to address concerns, may be ignored. This paper explores the complexities of introducing new policies and processes where planning systems and procedures already exist. Drinking water source protection policies that are being developed in response to the tragic events in Walkerton, Ontario, Canada serve as the context for the inquiry. Three case study watersheds were selected to reflect the diversity of municipal jurisdictions and water supply systems in Ontario. A content analysis was undertaken on regulatory and non-regulatory policy documents to determine the extent to which they addressed elements of the multi-barrier approach for drinking water safety. Findings from the research reveal considerable evidence of the multi-barrier approach in the policy and guiding documents analyzed. Policy development in response to a crisis can advance progress on the issue of drinking water safety and coincide with emerging governance strategies. Policy effectiveness may be enhanced by considering existing policies as well as contextual and jurisdictional differences.     

Existential threat and compliance with pro-environmental norms

Recent research on the effects of personal threat suggests that perceived threat might enhance pro-environmental behavior when pro-environmental norms are in focus. In three experiments we found support for the latter assumption, showing that mortality salience and salience of pro-environmental norms interacted in predicting pro-environmental attitudes and information search (Study 1), sustainable behavior in a forest management game (Study 2), as well as pro-environmental intentions and behavior (Study 3). Specifically, mortality salience increased pro-environmental conduct only when pro-environmental norms were salient. Moreover, norm salience only had an effect on pro-environmental attitudes and behavior when the threat of personal mortality was salient. We discuss the implications of these results for both terror management theory and the promotion of pro-environmental behaviors.     

Errors and uncertainties in a gridded carbon dioxide emissions inventory

Emission inventories (EIs) are the fundamental tool to monitor compliance with greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and emission reduction commitments. Inventory accounting guidelines provide the best practices to help EI compilers across different countries and regions make comparable, national emission estimates regardless of differences in data availability. However, there are a variety of sources of error and uncertainty that originate beyond what the inventory guidelines can define. Spatially explicit EIs, which are a key product for atmospheric modeling applications, are often developed for research purposes and there are no specific guidelines to achieve spatial emission estimates. The errors and uncertainties associated with the spatial estimates are unique to the approaches employed and are often difficult to assess. This study compares the global, high-resolution (1 km), fossil fuel, carbon dioxide (CO₂), gridded EI Open-source Data Inventory for Anthropogenic CO₂ (ODIAC) with the multi-resolution, spatially explicit bottom-up EI geoinformation technologies, spatio-temporal approaches, and full carbon account for improving the accuracy of GHG inventories (GESAPU) over the domain of Poland. By taking full advantage of the data granularity that bottom-up EI offers, this study characterized the potential biases in spatial disaggregation by emission sector (point and non-point emissions) across different scales (national, subnational/regional, and urban policy-relevant scales) and identified the root causes. While two EIs are in agreement in total and sectoral emissions (2.2% for the total emissions), the emission spatial patterns showed large differences (10~100% relative differences at 1 km) especially at the urban-rural transitioning areas (90–100%). We however found that the agreement of emissions over urban areas is surprisingly good compared with the estimates previously reported for US cities. This paper also discusses the use of spatially explicit EIs for climate mitigation applications beyond the common use in atmospheric modeling. We conclude with a discussion of current and future challenges of EIs in support of successful implementation of GHG emission monitoring and mitigation activity under the Paris Climate Agreement from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) 21st Conference of the Parties (COP21). We highlight the importance of capacity building for EI development and coordinated research efforts of EI, atmospheric observations, and modeling to overcome the challenges.

     

PFAS profiles in three North Sea top predators: metabolic differences among species?

Profiles of seven compounds of perfluoro-alkyl substances (PFASs) were compared among three species of top predators from the Danish North Sea: the white-beaked dolphin (Lagenorhynchus albirostris), the harbor porpoise (Phocoena phocoena), and the harbor seal (Phoca vitulina). The seals had higher total burdens (757.8 ng g^?1 ww) than the dolphins (439.9 ng g^?1 ww) and the porpoises (355.8 ng g^?1 ww), probably a reflection of feeding closer to the shore and thus contamination sources. The most striking difference among the species was the relative contribution of perfluorooctanesulfonamide (PFOSA) to the profiles; the seals (0.1 %) had much lower levels than porpoises (8.3 %) and dolphins (26.0 %). In combination with the values obtained from the literature, this result indicates that Carnivora species including Pinnipedia have a much higher capacity of transforming PFOSA to perfluorooctane sulfonic acid (PFOS) than cetacean species. Another notable difference among the species was that the two smaller species (seals and porpoises) with supposedly higher metabolic rates had lower concentrations of the perfluorinated carboxylic acids, which are generally more easily excreted than perfluorinated sulfonamides. Species-specific characteristics should be recognized when PFAS contamination in marine mammals is investigated, for example, several previous studies of PFASs in cetaceans have not quantified PFOSA.     

Gas production, composition and emission at a modern disposal site receiving waste with a low-organic content

AV Miljø is a modern waste disposal site receiving non-combustible waste with a low-organic content. The objective of the current project was to determine the gas generation, composition, emission, and oxidation in top covers on selected waste cells as well as the total methane (CH₄) emission from the disposal site. The investigations focused particularly on three waste disposal cells containing shredder waste (cell 1.5.1), mixed industrial waste (cell 2.2.2), and mixed combustible waste (cell 1.3). Laboratory waste incubation experiments as well as gas modeling showed that significant gas generation was occurring in all three cells. Field analysis showed that the gas generated in the cell with mixed combustible waste consisted of mainly CH₄ (70%) and carbon dioxide (CO₂) (29%) whereas the gas generated within the shredder waste, primarily consisted of CH₄ (27%) and nitrogen (N₂) (71%), containing no CO₂. The results indicated that the gas composition in the shredder waste was governed by chemical reactions as well as microbial reactions. CH₄ mass balances from three individual waste cells showed that a significant part (between 15% and 67%) of the CH₄ generated in cell 1.3 and 2.2.2 was emitted through leachate collection wells, as a result of the relatively impermeable covers in place at these two cells preventing vertical migration of the gas. At cell 1.5.1, which is un-covered, the CH₄ emission through the leachate system was low due to the high gas permeability of the shredder waste. Instead the gas was emitted through the waste resulting in some hotspot observations on the shredder surface with higher emission rates. The remaining gas that was not emitted through surfaces or the leachate collection system could potentially be oxidized as the measured oxidation capacity exceeded the potential emission rate. The whole CH₄ emission from the disposal site was found to be 820 ± 202 kg CH₄ d⁻¹. The total emission rate through the leachate collection system at AV Miljø was found to be 211 kg CH₄ d⁻¹. This showed that approximately ¼ of the emitted gas was emitted through the leachate collections system making the leachate collection system an important source controlling the overall gas migration from the site. The emission pathway for the remaining part of the gas was more uncertain, but emission from open cells where waste is being disposed of or being excavated for incineration, or from horizontal leachate drainage pipes placed in permeable gravel layers in the bottom of empty cells was likely.