Errors and uncertainties in a gridded carbon dioxide emissions inventory

Emission inventories (EIs) are the fundamental tool to monitor compliance with greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and emission reduction commitments. Inventory accounting guidelines provide the best practices to help EI compilers across different countries and regions make comparable, national emission estimates regardless of differences in data availability. However, there are a variety of sources of error and uncertainty that originate beyond what the inventory guidelines can define. Spatially explicit EIs, which are a key product for atmospheric modeling applications, are often developed for research purposes and there are no specific guidelines to achieve spatial emission estimates. The errors and uncertainties associated with the spatial estimates are unique to the approaches employed and are often difficult to assess. This study compares the global, high-resolution (1 km), fossil fuel, carbon dioxide (CO₂), gridded EI Open-source Data Inventory for Anthropogenic CO₂ (ODIAC) with the multi-resolution, spatially explicit bottom-up EI geoinformation technologies, spatio-temporal approaches, and full carbon account for improving the accuracy of GHG inventories (GESAPU) over the domain of Poland. By taking full advantage of the data granularity that bottom-up EI offers, this study characterized the potential biases in spatial disaggregation by emission sector (point and non-point emissions) across different scales (national, subnational/regional, and urban policy-relevant scales) and identified the root causes. While two EIs are in agreement in total and sectoral emissions (2.2% for the total emissions), the emission spatial patterns showed large differences (10~100% relative differences at 1 km) especially at the urban-rural transitioning areas (90–100%). We however found that the agreement of emissions over urban areas is surprisingly good compared with the estimates previously reported for US cities. This paper also discusses the use of spatially explicit EIs for climate mitigation applications beyond the common use in atmospheric modeling. We conclude with a discussion of current and future challenges of EIs in support of successful implementation of GHG emission monitoring and mitigation activity under the Paris Climate Agreement from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) 21st Conference of the Parties (COP21). We highlight the importance of capacity building for EI development and coordinated research efforts of EI, atmospheric observations, and modeling to overcome the challenges.

     

Testing the developmental stress hypothesis in canaries: consequences of nutritional stress on adult song phenotype and mate attractiveness

The complex songs of songbirds are thought to have evolved through sexual selection. Sexually selected signals must be associated with costs in order to ensure their honesty as indicator of male quality. Costs may relate to the development of the neural substrate underlying song learning, which develops already very early in life. Song may, therefore, serve as an indicator of the early developmental history. This nutritional stress hypothesis has initially been confirmed for a variety of species, but recent studies using zebra finches as a model species reported somewhat inconsistent effects, and the functional consequences of changes in adult song phenotype remain unclear. We tested the nutritional stress hypothesis in canaries by manipulating either the brood size or the food quality postfledging. The brood size manipulation had a significant effect on early development, and low food quality postfledging led to a transient reduction in body mass. However, we did not find evidence that any of the song traits measured reflected the early developmental conditions, which is in conflict with the nutritional stress hypothesis. Canaries may be less vulnerable to nutritional stress or are able to compensate stressful conditions during early development. However, if males compensated, this compensation may have come at a survival cost. Female mate choice decisions were independent of the developmental history of a male. Instead, females preferred males singing longer song bouts, a trait that may contain a heritable component.     

Integral models for bubble,droplet, and multiphase plume dynamics in stratification and crossflow

We present the development and validation of a numerical modeling suite for bubble and droplet dynamics of multiphase plumes in the environment. This modeling suite includes real-fluid equations of state, Lagrangian particle tracking, and two different integral plume models: an Eulerian model for a double-plume integral model in quiescent stratification and a Lagrangian integral model for multiphase plumes in stratified crossflows. Here, we report a particle tracking algorithm for dispersed-phase particles within the Lagrangian integral plume model and a comprehensive validation of the Lagrangian plume model for single- and multiphase buoyant jets. The model utilizes literature values for all entrainment and spreading coefficients and has one remaining calibration parameter \( \kappa \), which reduces the buoyant force of dispersed phase particles as they approach the edge of a Lagrangian plume element, eventually separating from the plume as it bends over in a crossflow. We report the calibrated form \( \kappa = [(b - r) / b]^4 \), where b is the plume half-width, and r is the distance of a particle from the plume centerline. We apply the validated modeling suite to simulate two test cases of a subsea oil well blowout in a stratification-dominated crossflow. These tests confirm that errors from overlapping plume elements in the Lagrangian integral model during intrusion formation for a weak crossflow are negligible for predicting intrusion depth and the fate of oil droplets in the plume. The Lagrangian integral model has the added advantages of being able to account for entrainment from an arbitrary crossflow, predict the intrusion of small gas bubbles and oil droplets when appropriate, and track the pathways of individual bubbles and droplets after they separate from the main plume or intrusion layer.     

Exceptional responders in conservation

Conservation operates within complex systems with incomplete knowledge of the system and the interventions utilized. This frequently results in the inability to find generally applicable methods to alleviate threats to Earth's vanishing wildlife. One approach used in medicine and the social sciences has been to develop a deeper understanding of positive outliers. Where such outliers share similar characteristics, they may be considered exceptional responders. We devised a 4‐step framework for identifying exceptional responders in conservation: identification of the study system, identification of the response structure, identification of the threshold for exceptionalism, and identification of commonalities among outliers. Evaluation of exceptional responders provides additional information that is often ignored in randomized controlled trials and before–after control‐intervention experiments. Interrogating the contextual factors that contribute to an exceptional outcome allow exceptional responders to become valuable pieces of information leading to unexpected discoveries and novel hypotheses.     

PFAS profiles in three North Sea top predators: metabolic differences among species?

Profiles of seven compounds of perfluoro-alkyl substances (PFASs) were compared among three species of top predators from the Danish North Sea: the white-beaked dolphin (Lagenorhynchus albirostris), the harbor porpoise (Phocoena phocoena), and the harbor seal (Phoca vitulina). The seals had higher total burdens (757.8 ng g^?1 ww) than the dolphins (439.9 ng g^?1 ww) and the porpoises (355.8 ng g^?1 ww), probably a reflection of feeding closer to the shore and thus contamination sources. The most striking difference among the species was the relative contribution of perfluorooctanesulfonamide (PFOSA) to the profiles; the seals (0.1 %) had much lower levels than porpoises (8.3 %) and dolphins (26.0 %). In combination with the values obtained from the literature, this result indicates that Carnivora species including Pinnipedia have a much higher capacity of transforming PFOSA to perfluorooctane sulfonic acid (PFOS) than cetacean species. Another notable difference among the species was that the two smaller species (seals and porpoises) with supposedly higher metabolic rates had lower concentrations of the perfluorinated carboxylic acids, which are generally more easily excreted than perfluorinated sulfonamides. Species-specific characteristics should be recognized when PFAS contamination in marine mammals is investigated, for example, several previous studies of PFASs in cetaceans have not quantified PFOSA.