Preliminary Strategic Environmental Assessment of the Great Western Development Strategy: Safeguarding Ecological Security for a New Western China

The Great Western Development Strategy (GWDS) is a long term national campaign aimed at boosting development of the western area of China and narrowing the economic gap between the western and the eastern parts of China. The Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) procedure was employed to assess the environmental challenges brought about by the western development plans. These plans include five key developmental domains (KDDs): water resource exploitation and use, land utilization, energy generation, tourism development, and ecological restoration and conservation. A combination of methods involving matrix assessment, incorporation of expert judgment and trend analysis was employed to analyze and predict the environmental impacts upon eight selected environmental indicators: water resource availability, soil erosion, soil salinization, forest destruction, land desertification, biological diversity, water quality and air quality. Based on the overall results of the assessment, countermeasures for environmental challenges that emerged were raised as key recommendations to ensure ecological security during the implementation of the GWDS. This paper is intended to introduce a consensus-based process for evaluating the complex, long term pressures on the ecological security of large areas, such as western China, that focuses on the use of combined methods applied at the strategic level.     

Locating Spatial Variation in the Association Between Wildland Fire Risk and Social Vulnerability Across Six Southern States

Wildland fire in the South commands considerable attention, given the expanding wildland urban interface (WUI) across the region. Much of this growth is propelled by higher income retirees and others desiring natural amenity residential settings. However, population growth in the WUI increases the likelihood of wildfire fire ignition caused by people, as humans account for 93% of all wildfires fires in the South. Coexisting with newly arrived, affluent WUI populations are working class, poor or otherwise socially vulnerable populations. The latter groups typically experience greater losses from environmental disasters such as wildfire because lower income residents are less likely to have established mitigation programs in place to help absorb loss. We use geographically weighted regression to examine spatial variation in the association between social vulnerability (SOVUL) and wildfire risk. In doing so, we identify “hot spots” or geographical clusters where SOVUL varies positively with wildfire risk across six Southern states—Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Mississippi, and South Carolina. These clusters may or may not be located in the WUI. These hot spots are most prevalent in South Carolina and Florida. Identification of these population clusters can aid wildfire managers in deciding which communities to prioritize for mitigation programming.     

An Ecoregional Context for Forest Management on National Wildlife Refuges of the Upper Midwest,USA

To facilitate forest planning and management on National Wildlife Refuges, we synthesized multiple data sources to describe land ownership patterns, land cover, landscape pattern, and changes in forest composition for four ecoregions and their associated refuges of the Upper Midwest. We related observed patterns to ecological processes important for forest conservation and restoration, with specific attention to refuge patterns of importance for forest landbirds of conservation priority. The large amount of public land within the ecoregions (31–80%) suggests that opportunities exist for coarse and meso-scale approaches to conserving and restoring ecological processes affecting the refuges, particularly historical fire regimes. Forests dominate both ecoregions and refuges, but refuge forest patches are generally larger and more aggregated than in associated ecoregions. Broadleaf taxa have increased in dominance in the ecoregions and displaced fire-dependent taxa such as pine (Pinus spp.) and other coniferous species; these changes in forest composition have likely also affected refuge forests. Despite compositional changes, larger forest patches on refuges suggests that they may provide better habitat for area-sensitive forest landbirds of mature, compositionally diverse forests than surrounding lands if management continues to promote increased patch size. We reason that although fine-scale research and monitoring for species of conservation priority is important, broad scale (ecoregional) assessments provide crucial context for effective forest and wildlife management in protected areas.     

Farm Crops Depredation by European Bison (Bison bonasus) in the Vicinity of Forest Habitats in Northeastern Poland

European bison, the largest mammal in Europe, after being exterminated in the wild and then restored during the 20th century is still listed by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN Red List of Threatened Species) as a species vulnerable to extinction. However, the increasing number of European bison, through creation of new and expansion of existing populations strongly increases the risk of human-bison conflict in the near future. We analyzed the depredation of farm crops by bison and the factors influencing the level of damage in the vicinity of two forest areas inhabited by bison in northeastern Poland. Between 2000 and 2010, the total cost of compensation was 196,200. The level of damage and amount of compensation was increasing from year to year in both forests and correlated with the number of bison. The majority of damage (57?% of cases) was recorded in winter (December-March). Snow depth and temperature did not influence the frequency of damage. The incidences of damage increased with decreasing distance from the woodland patches, therefore, 69?% of cases in Bia?owie?a Forest, and 80?% in Knyszyn Forest were recorded closer than 0.5?km from nearest woodland patch. The majority of the crops damaged by bison were cereals (61?%) but also hay (20?%) and rape (13?%). When compared to the availability of crops, bison strongly selected rape and rye in both regions. This study is the first addressing the increasing problem of human-bison conflict in re-introduced populations and analyzing long-term data on crop depredation. Such situations probably occur in the majority of growing and expanding bison populations, however, it has not yet to be monitored and is rather neglected in post-Soviet countries.     

Comparison of Stream Invertebrate Response Models for Bioassessment Metrics1

Waite, Ian R., Jonathan G. Kennen, Jason T. May, Larry R. Brown, Thomas F. Cuffney, Kimberly A. Jones, and James L. Orlando, 2012. Comparison of Stream Invertebrate Response Models for Bioassessment Metrics. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(3): 570-583. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2011.00632.x Abstract: We aggregated invertebrate data from various sources to assemble data for modeling in two ecoregions in Oregon and one in California. Our goal was to compare the performance of models developed using multiple linear regression (MLR) techniques with models developed using three relatively new techniques: classification and regression trees (CART), random forest (RF), and boosted regression trees (BRT). We used tolerance of taxa based on richness (RICHTOL) and ratio of observed to expected taxa (O/E) as response variables and land use/land cover as explanatory variables. Responses were generally linear; therefore, there was little improvement to the MLR models when compared to models using CART and RF. In general, the four modeling techniques (MLR, CART, RF, and BRT) consistently selected the same primary explanatory variables for each region. However, results from the BRT models showed significant improvement over the MLR models for each region; increases in R² from 0.09 to 0.20. The O/E metric that was derived from models specifically calibrated for Oregon consistently had lower R² values than RICHTOL for the two regions tested. Modeled O/E R² values were between 0.06 and 0.10 lower for each of the four modeling methods applied in the Willamette Valley and were between 0.19 and 0.36 points lower for the Blue Mountains. As a result, BRT models may indeed represent a good alternative to MLR for modeling species distribution relative to environmental variables.     

Evidence for Acidification-Driven Ecosystem Collapse of Danish Erica tetralix Wet Heathland

We report observations of disappearance of Erica tetralix in wet heathland, which is unlikely to be caused by competition, as E. tetralix is dying before its place is taken up by other species. To investigate the causes, we used both old and new data. Results showed that presence of Molinia caerulea and Calluna vulgaris were substantial in the former E. tetralix dominated areas. Measurements of the C/N ratio in the morlayer were between 21 and 26 under the E. tetralix stands. As the expected C/N ratio in a healthy nutrient poor ecosystem like the E. tetralix wet heathland is around 30, this indicates that the ratio is probably decreasing and, correspondingly, the probability of nitrogen leaching from the ecosystem is increasing. The morlayer pH was extremely low—between 3.03 and 3.78. This represents a pH decline since the 1960s, where pH values generally were above 4. This supports the hypothesis that the decrease in morlayer pH is the major factor explaining the disappearance of E. tetralix and that measures to increase pH should be considered as part of the recommendations for relevant future management.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-012-0251-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

How will Ocean Acidification Affect Baltic Sea Ecosystems? An Assessment of Plausible Impacts on Key Functional Groups

Increasing partial pressure of atmospheric CO₂ is causing ocean pH to fall—a process known as ‘ocean acidification’. Scenario modeling suggests that ocean acidification in the Baltic Sea may cause a ≤3 times increase in acidity (reduction of 0.2–0.4 pH units) by the year 2100. The responses of most Baltic Sea organisms to ocean acidification are poorly understood. Available data suggest that most species and ecologically important groups in the Baltic Sea food web (phytoplankton, zooplankton, macrozoobenthos, cod and sprat) will be robust to the expected changes in pH. These conclusions come from (mostly) single-species and single-factor studies. Determining the emergent effects of ocean acidification on the ecosystem from such studies is problematic, yet very few studies have used multiple stressors and/or multiple trophic levels. There is an urgent need for more data from Baltic Sea populations, particularly from environmentally diverse regions and from controlled mesocosm experiments. In the absence of such information it is difficult to envision the likely effects of future ocean acidification on Baltic Sea species and ecosystems.     

Modeling Nutrient Transports and Exchanges of Nutrients Between Shallow Regions and the Open Baltic Sea in Present and Future Climate

We quantified horizontal transport patterns and the net exchange of nutrients between shallow regions and the open sea in the Baltic proper. A coupled biogeochemical-physical circulation model was used for transient simulations 1961-2100. The model was driven by regional downscaling of the IPCC climate change scenario A1B from two global General Circulation Models in combination with two nutrient load scenarios. Modeled nutrient transports followed mainly the large-scale internal water circulation and showed only small circulation changes in the future projections. The internal nutrient cycling and exchanges between shallow and deeper waters became intensified, and the internal removal of phosphorus became weaker in the warmer future climate. These effects counteracted the impact from nutrient load reductions according to the Baltic Sea Action Plan. The net effect of climate change and nutrient reductions was an increased net import of dissolved inorganic phosphorus to shallow areas in the Baltic proper.     

Occurrence of alternative flame retardants in indoor dust from New Zealand: indoor sources and human exposure assessment

Due to worldwide restrictions on polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), the demand for alternative flame retardants (AFRs), such as organophosphate flame retardants (OPFRs), novel brominated FRs (NBFRs) and hexabromocyclododecanes (HBCDs), has recently increased. Little is known about human exposure to NBFRs and OPFRs and that their levels in dust have been scarcely evaluated worldwide. To increase the knowledge regarding these chemicals, we measured concentrations of five major NBFRs, ten OPFRs and three HBCD isomers in indoor dust from New Zealand homes. Dust samples were taken from living room floors (n=34) and from mattresses of the same houses (n=16). Concentrations (ngg(-1)) of NBFRs were: 1,2-bis(2,4,6-tribromophenoxy)ethane (BTBPE) (<2-175), decabromodiphenyl ethane (DBDPE) (<5-1430), 2-ethylhexyl-2,3,4,5-tetrabromobenzoate (TBB) (<2-2285) and bis(2-ethylhexyl)-3,4,5,6-tetrabromophthalate (TBPH) (<2-640). For OPFRs, concentrations (ngg(-1)) ranged between: tri-ethyl-phosphate (TEP) (<10-235), tri-n-butyl-phosphate (TnBP) (<20-7545), tris-(2-chloroethyl)-phosphate (TCEP) (<20-7605), tris-(1-chloro-2-propyl) phosphate (TCPP) (20-7615), tri-(2-butoxyethyl)-phosphate (TBEP) (50-27325), tris-(2,3-dichloropropyl)-phosphate (TDCPP) (20-16560), tri-phenyl-phosphate (TPhP) (20-35190), and tri-cresyl-phosphate (TCP) (<50-3760). HBCD concentrations fell in the range <2-4100ngg(-1). BTBPE, DBDPE, TBPH, TBEP, and TnBP showed significant positive correlation (p<0.05) between their concentrations in mattresses and the corresponding floor dust (n=16). These data were used to derive a range of plausible exposure scenarios. Although the estimated exposure is well below the corresponding reference doses (RfDs), caution is needed given the likely future increase in use of these FRs and the currently unknown contribution to human exposure by other pathways such as inhalation and diet.     

Natural attenuation is enhanced in previously contaminated and coniferous forest soils

Purpose  

Prevalence of organic pollutants or their natural analogs in soil is often assumed to lead to adaptation in the bacterial community, which results in enhanced bioremediation if the soil is later contaminated. In this study, the effects of soil type and contamination history on diesel oil degradation and bacterial adaptation were studied.