Land-based carbon storage and the European union emissions trading scheme: the science underlying the policy

Climate change is occurring with greater speed and intensity that previously anticipated. All effective environmentally and socially sound mitigation efforts need to be employed to effectively address this global crisis. Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) projects can provide significant climate change mitigation benefits as well as poverty alleviation and biodiversity conservation benefits. The policies of the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU-ETS), the world’s largest carbon market exclude LULUCF. Scientific support for this exclusion was presented in a briefing paper published by the Climate Action Network—Europe (CAN) that puts forward the proposition that land based storage of carbon is ineffective. A careful review of the scientific papers cited in support of CAN’s position indicates that, while the papers themselves are scientifically sound, they do not support the continued exclusion of LULUCF projects from the EU-ETS. At the same time some important recent research papers that describe the carbon storage and social benefit potential of such projects are not included in the analysis. An in-depth consideration of the scientific evidence is necessary in evaluating this policy option. Based on this evidence a case can be made for the inclusion of LULUCF projects in the EU-ETS.     

FORECASTING FUTURE LAND USE FOR WATERSHED ASSESSMENT1

ABSTRACT: Protecting surface water quality in watersheds undergoing demographic change requires both the management of existing threats and planning to address potential future stresses arising from changing land use. Many reservoirs and threatened waterbodies are located in areas undergoing rapid population growth, and increases in density of residential and commercial land use, accompanied by increased amount of impervious surface area, can result in increased pollutant loading and degradation of water quality. Effective planning to address potential threats, including zoning and growth management, requires analytical tools to predict and compare the impacts of different management options. The focus of this paper is not on developing demographic projections, but rather the translation of such projections into changes in land use which form the basis for assessment of future watershed loads. Land use change can be forecast at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. A semi-lumped, GIS-based, transition matrix approach is recommended as consistent with the level of complexity achievable in most watershed models. Practical aspects of forecasting future land use for watershed assessment are discussed. Several recent reservoir water supply projection studies are used to demonstrate a general framework for simulating changes in land use and resulting impacts on water quality. In addition to providing a technical basis for selecting optimal management alternatives, such a tool is invaluable for demonstrating to different stakeholder groups the trade-offs among management alternatives, both in terms of water quality and future land use patterns within the watershed.     

Widespread contribution of methane-cycle bacteria to the diets of lake profundal chironomid larvae

Reports of unexpectedly 13C-depleted chironomid larvae in lakes have led to an hypothesis that significant transfer of detrital organic matter to chironomid larvae may occur via methane-cycle bacteria. However, to date little is known of how such transfer might vary across species and lakes. We gathered data from 87 lakes to determine how widespread this phenomenon might be and to define boundaries for its likely magnitude. Carbon stable isotope values of chironomid larvae varied greatly between taxa. Very marked 13C-depletion was evident only in certain taxa, especially Chironomus plumosus, C. anthracinus, and C. tenuistylus, all characteristic of eutrophic or dystrophic lakes and known to be tolerant of low oxygen conditions. Furthermore, marked 13C-depletion was only found in larvae from lakes in which late-summer hypolimnetic oxygen depletion near the sediment surface was below an apparent threshold concentration of 2-4 mg O2/L. Similarly, application of a two-source mixing model suggested that methanotrophic bacteria made the greatest contribution to profundal chironomid growth (0-70% of larval carbon) when the late-summer oxygen concentration dropped below approximately 2 mg O2/L. Our study demonstrates that methane-derived carbon is an important, but often neglected, contribution to the flux of carbon through the food webs of many productive or dystrophic lakes.     

Application of tree-ring isotopic analyses to reconstruct historical water use of riparian trees.

Historical patterns of water source use by trees inferred from long-term records of tree-ring stable isotopic content could assist in evaluating the impact of human alterations to natural stream flow regimes (e.g., water impoundments, stream flow diversions, and groundwater extraction). Our objective was to assess the utility of the hydrogen stable isotopic composition (SD) of tree rings as an index of historical water source use by riparian trees. We investigated the influence of site conditions that varied in climate and hydrology on the relationship between deltaD of Populus xylem water (deltaD(xyl)) and tree-ring cellulose (deltaD(cell)). deltaD(xyl) and deltaD(cell) were strongly correlated across sites (r2 = 0.89). However, the slope of this relationship was less than 1, indicating that factors other than deltaD(xyl) influenced deltaD(cell). Inverse modeling with an isotopic fractionation model for tree-ring cellulose suggested that the lack of one-to-one correspondence between deltaD(xyl) and deltaD(cell) was due to the influence of the hydrogen isotopic content of the atmospheric water vapor (deltaD(atm)). Empirically measured values of deltaD(cell) were typically within the seasonal range of deltaD(cell) predicted from the fractionation model. Sensitivity analyses showed that changes in deltaD(xyl) generally had a greater influence at high-elevation montane sites, whereas deltaD(xyl) and deltaD(atm) had about equal influence on deltaD(cell) at low-elevation desert sites. The intrasite relationship between deltaD(cell) and deltaD(xyl) among individual trees was poor, perhaps because of the within-site spatial variation in hydrologic conditions and associated tree physiological responses. Our study suggests that historical variation in deltaD(cell) of Populus provides information on historical variation in both time-integrated water source use and atmospheric conditions; and that the influence of atmospheric conditions is not consistent over sites with large differences in temperature and humidity. Reconstruction of xylem water sources of Populus in riparian ecosystems from deltaD(cell) will be more direct at higher elevation mountain sites than at low-elevation desert sites.     

Revisiting the classics: considering nonconsumptive effects in textbook examples of predator-prey interactions

Predator effects on prey dynamics are conventionally studied by measuring changes in prey abundance attributed to consumption by predators. We revisit four classic examples of predator-prey systems often cited in textbooks and incorporate subsequent studies of nonconsumptive effects of predators (NCE), defined as changes in prey traits (e.g., behavior, growth, development) measured on an ecological time scale. Our review revealed that NCE were integral to explaining lynx-hare population dynamics in boreal forests, cascading effects of top predators in Wisconsin lakes, and cascading effects of killer whales and sea otters on kelp forests in nearshore marine habitats. The relative roles of consumption and NCE of wolves on moose and consequent indirect effects on plant communities of Isle Royale depended on climate oscillations. Nonconsumptive effects have not been explicitly tested to explain the link between planktonic alewives and the size structure of the zooplankton, nor have they been invoked to attribute keystone predator status in intertidal communities or elsewhere. We argue that both consumption and intimidation contribute to the total effects of keystone predators, and that characteristics of keystone consumers may differ from those of predators having predominantly NCE. Nonconsumptive effects are often considered as an afterthought to explain observations inconsistent with consumption-based theory. Consequently, NCE with the same sign as consumptive effects may be overlooked, even though they can affect the magnitude, rate, or scale of a prey response to predation and can have important management or conservation implications. Nonconsumptive effects may underlie other classic paradigms in ecology, such as delayed density dependence and predator-mediated prey coexistence. Revisiting classic studies enriches our understanding of predator-prey dynamics and provides compelling rationale for ramping up efforts to consider how NCE affect traditional predator-prey models based on consumption, and to compare the relative magnitude of consumptive and NCE of predators.     

Trophic levels and trophic tangles: the prevalence of omnivory in real food webs

The concept of trophic levels is one of the oldest in ecology and informs our understanding of energy flow and top-down control within food webs, but it has been criticized for ignoring omnivory. We tested whether trophic levels were apparent in 58 real food webs in four habitat types by examining patterns of trophic position. A large proportion of taxa (64.4%) occupied integer trophic positions, suggesting that discrete trophic levels do exist. Importantly however, the majority of those trophic positions were aggregated around integer values of 0 and 1, representing plants and herbivores. For the majority of the real food webs considered here, secondary consumers were no more likely to occupy an integer trophic position than in randomized food webs. This means that, above the herbivore trophic level, food webs are better characterized as a tangled web of omnivores. Omnivory was most common in marine systems, rarest in streams, and intermediate in lakes and terrestrial food webs. Trophic-level-based concepts such as trophic cascades may apply to systems with short food chains, but they become less valid as food chains lengthen.     

Controls on vegetation structure in Southwestern ponderosa pine forests, 1941 and 2004

Long-term studies can broaden our ecological understanding and are particularly important when examining contingent effects that involve changes to dominance by long-lived species. Such a change occurred during the last century in Southwestern (USA) ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forests. We used five livestock grazing exclosures established in 1912 to quantify vegetation structure in 1941 and 2004. Our objectives were to (1) assess the effects of historical livestock grazing on overstory structure and age distribution, (2) assess the effects of recent livestock grazing and overstory on understory vegetation, and (3) quantify and explain changes in understory vegetation between 1941 and 2004. In 1941, canopy cover of tree regeneration was significantly higher inside exclosures. In 2004, total tree canopy cover was twice as high, density was three times higher, trees were smaller, and total basal area was 40% higher inside exclosures. Understory species density, herbaceous plant density, and herbaceous cover were negatively correlated with overstory vegetation in both years. Most understory variables did not differ between grazing treatments in 1941 but were lower inside exclosures in 2004. Differences between grazing treatments disappeared once overstory effects were accounted for, indicating that they were due to the differential overstory response to historical livestock grazing practices. Between 1941 and 2004, species density declined by 34%, herbaceous plant density by 37%, shrub cover by 69%, total herbaceous cover by 59%, graminoid cover by 39%, and forb cover by 82%. However, these variables did not differ between grazing treatments or years once overstory effects were accounted for, indicating that the declines were driven by the increased dominance of the overstory during this period. Our results demonstrate that historical livestock grazing practices are an aspect of land-use history that can affect ecosystem development. Grazing history must be considered when extrapolating results from one site to another. In addition, the understory vegetation was more strongly controlled by the ponderosa pine overstory than by recent livestock grazing or by temporal dynamics, indicating that overstory effects must be accounted for when examining understory responses in this ecosystem.     

Independent gradients of producer, consumer, and microbial diversity in lake plankton

Interactions between trophic levels during food web assembly can drive positive correlations in diversity between producers, consumers, and decomposers. However, the contribution of trophic interactions relative to local environmental factors in promoting species diversity is poorly understood, with many studies only considering two trophic levels. Here we examine correlations in diversity among zooplankton, phytoplankton, and bacteria in the pelagic zone of 31 lakes in British Columbia, Canada. We sampled species diversity of zooplankton and phytoplankton through morphological identification, and bacterial genetic diversity was estimated by denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE) of 16S rDNA polymorphisms. We looked for correlations in diversity that were independent of the abiotic environment by statistically controlling for 18 limnological variables. No significant correlations were found between the diversity of zooplankton, phytoplankton, and bacteria. In addition, the physical factors that were associated with species composition in one trophic level were independent of those that were important for another. Our results provide no support for the importance of direct feedbacks between producers, consumers, and decomposers in maintaining diversity. Zooplankton, phytoplankton, and bacterial diversity and composition are regulated independently from one another and respond to different environmental variables. These results suggest that species of lake plankton show loose trophic associations with one another due to broad diets in consumers and decomposers.     

Quantitative threat analysis for management of an imperiled species: Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha).

Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) have declined dramatically across the Pacific Northwest because of multiple human impacts colloquially characterized as the four "H's": habitat degradation, harvest, hydroelectric and other dams, and hatchery production. We use this conceptual framework to quantify the relative importance of major threats to the current status of 201 Chinook populations. Current status is characterized by two demographic indices: population density and trend. We employ path analytic models and information theoretic methods for multi-model inference. Our results indicate that dams most strongly affect variation in population density, while harvest and hatchery production most strongly affect variation in population trend. Comparable results arise when the sample size of the analysis is reduced to 22 Chinook populations within a smaller region typical of the scale at which salmon recovery planning is conducted. Results from these threat analyses suggest that recovery strategies targeting specific demographic indices, and those considering natural and human-mediated interdependencies of major threats, are most likely to succeed.     

Inorganic and organic contaminants in sediments from an urban playa and associated toxicity among Hyalella azteca

Playa wetlands are important components of the Southern High Plains (USA) landscape as they are the major aquatic surface feature. Chemical contaminants associated with playas have been documented, particularly for grassland and agricultural watersheds, but not for playas in urban settings. The objectives of this study were to determine concentrations of inorganic and organic contaminants in sediments from an urban playa within the I-20 Wildlife Preserve and Jenna Welch Nature Study Center in Midland, TX, and evaluate toxicity of these sediments to Hyalella azteca. Concentrations of most trace elements were below sediment quality guidelines with exceptions of lead, cadmium, and arsenic. Concentrations of organic contaminants, particularly PAHs, DDT, DDE, and malathion, were above sediment quality guidelines at various locations within the playa. Decreased survival was observed among H. azteca exposed to sediment from a single location when compared those exposed to reference sediments. This location also produced maximum observed concentrations for five of seven trace elements, potentially due to its location at the lowest elevation within the playa. This study documented concentrations of contaminants in sediments of an urban playa associated with past and present land uses in its urban setting, including those from automotive emissions and historical pesticide use.