Framing climate uncertainty: socio-economic and climate scenarios in vulnerability and adaptation assessments

Scenarios have become a powerful tool in integrated assessment and policy analysis for climate change. Socio-economic and climate scenarios are often combined to assess climate change impacts and vulnerabilities across different sectors and to inform risk management strategies. Such combinations of scenarios can also play an important role in enabling the interaction between experts and other stakeholders, framing issues and providing a means for making explicit and dealing with uncertainties. Drawing on experience with the application of scenarios to climate change assessments in recent Dutch research, the paper argues that scenario approaches need to be matched to the frames of stakeholders who are situated in specific decision contexts. Differentiated approaches (top-down, bottom-up and interactive) are needed to address the different frames and decision-making contexts of stakeholders. A framework is proposed to map scenarios and decision contexts onto two dimensions: the spatial scale of the context and the starting point of approach used in scenario development (top-down, bottom-up or incident-driven). Future climate and socio-economic scenario development will be shaped by the need to become better aligned with multiple interacting uncertainties salient to stakeholders.     

Nitrogen Trioxide: Key Intermediate in the Chemistry of Polluted Air?

It is proposed that peroxyacetyl nitrate and its homologues are formed in polluted air via hydrogen abstraction from the corresponding aldehyde by nitrogen trioxide, followed by (a relatively fast) combination of the resulting acyl radical with oxygen and NO₂. This mechanism provides a simple explanation for the formation of nitric acid, HNO3, as well. Nitrogen trioxide should be able to abstract hydrogen atoms from hydrocarbons, since the H-ONO₂ bond strength is about 100 kcal/mole.     

Daily Mortality and Air Pollution in the Netherlands

ABSTRACT

We studied the association of daily mortality with short-term variations in the ambient concentrations of major gaseous pollutants and PM in the Netherlands. The magnitude of the association in the four major urban areas was compared with that in the remainder of the country. Daily cause-specific mortality counts, air quality, temperature, relative humidity, and influenza data were obtained from 1986 to 1994. The relationship between daily mortality and air pollution was modeled using Poisson regression analysis. We adjusted for potential confounding due to long-term and seasonal trends, influenza epidemics, ambient temperature and relative humidity, day of the week, and holidays, using generalized additive models.

Influenza episodes were associated with increased mortality up to 3 weeks later. Daily mortality was significantly associated with the concentration of all air pollutants. An increase in the PM₁₀ concentration by 100 u.g/m³ was associated with a relative risk (RR) of 1.02 for total mortality. The largest RRs were found for pneumonia deaths. Ozone had the most consistent, independent association with mortality. Particulate air pollution (e.g., PM₁₀, black smoke [BS]) was not more consistently associated with mortality than were the gaseous pollutants SO₂ and NO₂. Aerosol SO₄ ^-2, NO₃ ^-, and BS were more consistently associated with total mortality than was PM₁₀. The RRs for all pollutants were substantially larger in the summer months than in the winter months. The RR of total mortality for PM₁₀ was 1.10 for the summer and 1.03 for the winter. There was no consistent difference between RRs in the four major urban areas and the more rural areas.     

Grinding and sieving soil affects the availability of organic contaminants: a kinetic analysis

Field contaminated soils are often homogenized before application in bioassays and chemical assays that estimate the (bio)availability of their contaminants. The homogenization of the soil might affect the availability, and thereby the outcome of a bioassay might not reflect field situations. In this study, uptake kinetics of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) by a negligible depletive passive sampler exposed to a ground and non-ground field contaminated soil were tested. The measurements illustrate how freely dissolved pore water concentrations of contaminants can be affected by soil treatment. It took more than a month, and over a year to reach steady state in the passive sampler exposed to the ground and non-ground soil, respectively. The uptake rate seemed to be limited by desorption from the soil, even though the fiber only extracted 0.2% of the soil-sorbed PAH at maximum. If these observations are translated to the field situation, where contaminants are not homogeneously distributed and disappear by (bio)degradation or physical transport processes, it is unlikely that pore water concentrations are solely determined by a thermodynamic equilibrium. Hence, exposure of organisms in these soils cannot always be estimated by sorption studies and an equilibrium partitioning approach.     

Effect of sediment properties on the sorption of C12-2-LAS in marine and estuarine sediments

Linear alkylbenzene sulfonates (LAS) are anionic high production volume surfactants used in the manufacture of cleaning products. Here, we have studied the effect of the characteristics of marine and estuarine sediments on the sorption of LAS. Sorption experiments were performed with single sediment materials (pure clays and sea sand), with sediments treated to reduce their organic carbon content, and with field marine and estuarine sediments. C₁₂-2-LAS was used as a model compound. Sorption to the clays montmorillonite and kaolinite resulted in non-linear isotherms very similar for both clays. When reducing the organic content, sorption coefficients decreased proportionally to the fraction removed in fine grain sediments but this was not the case for the sandy sediment. The correlation of the sediment characteristics with the sorption coefficients at different surfactant concentrations showed that at concentrations below 10 μg C₁₂-2-LAS/L, the clay content correlated better with sorption, while the organic fraction became more significant at higher concentrations.     

The acute toxicity of chlorobenzenes for earthworms (Eisenia andrei) in different exposure systems

Earthworms (Eisenia andrei) were exposed to different concentrations of two chlorobenzenes (1,2,3-trichloro- and pentachlorobenzene) using different routes of administration: in water, in soil, via food and on filter paper. Except for the contact paper toxicity test, lethal body burdens (LBBs) measured in these different exposure systems were similar for the same test chemical. LBBs for 1,2,3-trichlorobenzene varied between 0.44 and 2.1 μmol/g and for pentachlorobenzene between 1.29 and 2.34 μmol/g. These values correspond with literature data for fish. For 1,4-dichloro- and 1,2,3,4-tetrachlorobenzene LBBs measured with the contact paper toxicity test were 0.33 and 3.2 μmol/g, respectively. Exposure to hexachlorobenzene and hexabromobenzene using the contact toxicity test did not result in death within 48 hours.     

Public attitudes to nuclear energy: Salience and anxiety

During the last decade there has been a significant increase in public concern about nuclear energy. This paper presents a brief overview of trends and developments in public opinion since the late 1970s. One possible reason for this increased concern is the public's perception of risks. Research has shown a considerable divergence in public and expert assessment of the risks associated with nuclear energy. It will be argued that qualitative aspects of these risks play a crucial role in the public's perception of nuclear energy, and that reactions such as fear and anxiety are the major determinants of attitudes to the building of new nuclear power stations in one's neighbourhood. It is also clear, however, that differences in the perception of these risks do not embrace all the relevant aspects of public acceptance of nuclear energy. Public reaction is also related to more general values and beliefs, and the issue of nuclear energy is firmly embedded in a much wider moral and political domain.     

Assessment of the toxicity of mixtures of halogenated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans by use of toxicity equivalency factors (TEF)

In March 1988 the authors completed a report on the risk assessment of mixtures of halogenated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans at the request of the National Institute of Public Health and Environmental Protection in the Netherlands. Based on a study of the current knowledge of these compounds, a set of toxicity equivalency factors was proposed for use in such risk assessments. This paper presents the section of this report that deals with the literature on the effects of these compounds and the choice of toxicity equivalency factors. The uncertanties in the selection and application of toxicity equivalency factors are discussed.