Integrated Modular Modeling of Water and Nutrients From Point and Nonpoint Sources in the Patuxent River Watershed1

Abstract: We present a simple modular landscape simulation model that is based on a watershed modeling framework in which different sets of processes occurring in a watershed can be simulated separately with different models. The model consists of three loosely coupled submodels: a rainfall‐runoff model (TOPMODEL) for runoff generation in a subwatershed, a nutrient model for estimation of nutrients from nonpoint sources in a subwatershed, and a stream network model for integration of point and nonpoint sources in the routing process. The model performance was evaluated using monitoring data in the watershed of the Patuxent River, a tributary to the Chesapeake Bay in Maryland, from July 1997 through August 1999. Despite its simplicity, the landscape model predictions of streamflow, and sediment and nutrient loads were as good as or better than those of the Hydrological Simulation Program‐Fortran model, one of the most widely used comprehensive watershed models. The landscape model was applied to predict discharges of water, sediment, silicate, organic carbon, nitrate, ammonium, organic nitrogen, total nitrogen, organic phosphorus, phosphate, and total phosphorus from the Patuxent watershed to its estuary. The predicted annual water discharge to the estuary was very close to the measured annual total in terms of percent errors for both years of the study period (≤2%). The model predictions for loads of nutrients were also good (20‐30%) or very good (<20%) with exceptions of sediment (40%), phosphate (36%), and organic carbon (53%) for Year 1.     

Weather-mediated natural selection on arrival time in cliff swallows (Petrochelidon pyrrhonota)

An unusually long period of cold weather in May 1996 caused extensive mortality among insectivorous cliff swallows (Petrochelidon pyrrhonota) in the northern and central Great Plains. We analyzed how viability selection affected spring arrival time in a migratory Nebraska population by comparing capture histories of survivors with those of birds known to have died and by documenting how arrival time changed in the year following the selection event. Surviving birds had significantly later first-capture dates (an index of arrival time) in the years prior to selection than those that died; a significant selection differential suggested directional selection for birds that arrived later. Colony sites were occupied significantly later following the selection event, and the distribution of first-capture dates in the season after selection was significantly shifted toward later arrivals. Offspring of the survivors tended to arrive later than birds of the same age prior to the selection event. While major weather-caused mortality events of this magnitude are rare in the study area, spells of cold weather severe enough to cause limited mortality are frequent in April and early May. At least 25 probable mortality events of varying severity were identified in the last 50 years based on climatological data. Periodic weather-mediated selection against early arrival constrains the cliff swallow’s breeding season and may partly prevent directional selection for earlier nesting. Received: 19 October 1999 / Received in revised form: 15 January 2000 / Accepted: 24 January 2000     

Utility of North Atlantic Right Whale Museum Specimens for Assessing Changes in Genetic Diversity

Abstract: We examined six historical specimens of the endangered North Atlantic right whale ( Eubalaena glacialis ) using DNA isolated from documented baleen plates from the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. Sequences from the mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) control region from these samples were compared with those from a near-exhaustive survey (269 of approximately 320 individuals) of the remaining right whales in the western North Atlantic Ocean. Our results suggest that there has been only relatively modest change in maternal lineage diversity over the past century in the North Atlantic right whale population. Any significant reduction in genetic variation in the species most likely occurred prior to the late nineteenth century. One historical specimen was from the last documented female capable of propagating one of the maternal lineages in the population today; no females in the existing population have been found to carry this mtDNA haplotype. Analysis of the only specimens from the eastern North Atlantic right whale population ever to be examined revealed that eastern and western North Atlantic right whales may not have been genetically differentiated populations. Loss of gene diversity experienced by North Atlantic right whales over the last century has been modest, and the six decades of protection have been successful in maintaining much of the maternal lineage diversity that was present in the late nineteenth century.     

养活九十亿人

本世纪期间,技术进展已经使农作物生产率发生了革命,但农作物产率的提高已经开始放慢,而世界人口却继续增长.土地退化和水资源的压力是对非常需要的土地生产率提高的严重障碍.满足21世纪全球食品需要将要求一致的人口控制政策,推进可持续消费,和大大提高我们对土地、水及其它自然资源的使用效率.本文提供了对这些问题的前瞻性分析和解决这些问题的建议.     

Changes in phospholipase A2 activity and lipid content during early development of Atlantic halibut (Hippoglossus hippoglossus)

During early development in fish, phospholipase A₂ (EC 3.1.1.4) regulates membrane lipid modifications, which relates to changes in environmental conditions and provision of fatty acids required for metabolic energy substrates and prostaglandin biosynthesis. A method to analyze phospholipase A₂ in rat tissues has been modified to measure its activity in embryonic Atlantic halibut (Hippoglossus hippoglossus L.). Egg and embryo samples were collected during the 1994 spawning season. Enzyme activity was undetectable at fertilization but in 10-d embryos was 230 pmol mg⁻¹ h⁻¹ (at 20 °C) and increased by ∼120% at hatch (17-d). Significant alterations in the fatty acid composition of important phospholipids, phosphatidylcholine (PC) and phosphatidylethanolamine (PE), were also observed. The content of some critical polyunsaturated fatty acids, and the ratio of unsaturated/saturated fatty acids, declined significantly over development. Acyl-chain restructuring mediated through the activity of phospholipase A₂, coupled with other observed lipid changes (significant increases in the PC/PE ratio and cholesterol content), would produce a decreased fluidity of membranes during embryonic development, coinciding with the predicted upward movement of larvae in the water column. Arachidonic acid (20:4n-6) removed from PE could serve as a precursor for biosynthesis of 2-series prostaglandins, and eicosapentaenoic acid (20:5n-3) from PC is a likely source for other prostaglandin types. Despite removal of polyunsaturated fatty acids, there was an overall increase in lipid and fatty acid concentration, which can be attributed to amino acid catabolism during early developmental stages. Received: 9 September 1996 / Accepted: 8 September 1997     

Restricted adaptive cluster sampling

Adaptive cluster sampling can be a useful design for sampling rare and patchy populations. With this design the initial sample size is fixed but the size of the final sample (and total sampling effort) cannot be predicted prior to sampling. For some populations the final sample size can be quite variable depending on the level of patchiness. Restricted adaptive cluster sampling is a proposed modification where a limit is placed on the sample size prior to sampling and quadrats are selected sequentially for the initial sample size. As a result there is less variation in the final sample size and the total sampling effort can be predicted with some certainty, which is impor- tant for many ecological studies. Estimates of density are biased with the restricted design but under some circumstances the bias can be estimated well by bootstrapping. © Rapid Science 1998     

ASSESSING THE THREAT TO LIFE FROM DAM FAILURE1

ABSTRACT: To facilitate decisions regarding the need for modification of potentially unsafe dams, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation developed procedures for assessing the threat to human lives posed by the failure of individual dams. The procedures provide a conceptual model of the variables influencing the loss of life from dam failure and a method for predicting loss of life based on the size of the population at risk from failure and the amount of warning time available for that population. The prediction equations are based on an analysis of 24 dam failures and major flash floods occurring since 1950. Adjustments to the predictions to reflect special local conditions are also discussed.     

Biosensors for detection of mercury in contaminated soils

Biosensors based on whole bacterial cells and on bacterial heavy metal binding protein were used to determine the mercury concentration in soil. The soil samples were collected in a vegetable garden accidentally contaminated with elemental mercury 25 years earlier. Bioavailable mercury was measured using different sensors: a protein-based biosensor, a whole bacterial cell based biosensor, and a plant sensor, i.e. morphological and biochemical responses in primary leaves and roots of bean seedlings grown in the mercury-contaminated soil. For comparison the total mercury concentration of the soil samples was determined by AAS. Whole bacterial cell and protein-based biosensors gave accurate responses proportional to the total amount of mercury in the soil samples. On the contrary, plant sensors were found to be less useful indicators of soil mercury contamination, as determined by plant biomass, mercury content of primary leaves and enzyme activities.     

Energy-Based Land Use Predictors of Proximal Factors and Benthic Diatom Composition in Florida Freshwater Marshes

The Landscape Development Intensity index (LDI), which is based on non-renewable energy use and integrates diverse land use activities, was compared to other measures of LU (e.g., %agriculture, %urban) to determine its ability for predicting benthic diatom composition in freshwater marshes of peninsular Florida. In this study, 70 small, isolated herbaceous marshes located along a human disturbance gradient (generally agricultural) throughout peninsular Florida were sampled for benthic diatoms and soil and water physical/chemical parameters (i.e., TP, TKN, pH, specific conductance, etc.). Landscape measures of percent agriculture, percent urban, percent natural, and LDI index values were calculated for a 100 m buffer around each site. The strongest relationships using Mantel's r statistic, which ranges from −1 to 1, were found between benthic diatom composition, the combined soil and water variables, and LDI scores (r=0.51, P<0.0001). Although similar, soil and water variables alone (r=0.45, P<0.0001) or with percent agriculture or percent natural were not as strongly correlated (both Mantel's r=0.46, P<0.0001). Little urban land use was found in the areas surrounding the study wetlands. Diatom data were clustered using flexible beta into 2 groups, and stepwise discriminant analysis identified specific conductance, followed by LDI score, soil pH, water total phosphorus, and ammonia, as cluster-separating variables. The LDI explained slightly more of the variation in species composition than either percent agriculture or percent natural, perhaps because the LDI can combine disparate land uses into a single quantitative value. However, the ecological significance of the difference between land use metrics and diatom composition is controvertible, and additional tests including more varied land uses appear warranted.     

Compassionate versus consequentialist conservation

Ethical treatment of wildlife and consideration of animal welfare have become important themes in conservation, but ethical perspectives on how best to protect wild animals and promote their welfare are diverse. There are advantages to the consequentialist harms ethical framework applied in managing wild herbivores for conservation purposes. To minimize harms while achieving conservation goals, we argue that overabundant wild herbivores should in many cases be managed through consumptive in situ killing. Advantages of this policy are that the negative welfare states imposed on animals last only a short time; remaining animals are not deprived of positive welfare states (e.g., linked to rearing offspring); poor welfare states of animals in overabundant populations are avoided (e.g., starvation); negative welfare impacts on heterospecifics through resource depletion (i.e., competition) are prevented; harvesting meat reduces the number of (agricultural) animals raised to supply meat; and minimal costs maximize funding for other wildlife management and conservation priorities. Alternative ethical approaches to our consequentialist framework include deontology (containing animal rights) and virtue ethics, some of which underpin compassionate conservation. These alternative ethical approaches emphasize the importance of avoiding intentional killing of animals but, if no population reduction occurs, are likely to impose considerable unintentional harms on overabundant wildlife and indirectly harm heterospecifics through ineffective population reduction. If nonlethal control is used, it is likely that overabundant animals would be deprived of positive welfare states and economic costs would be prohibitive. We encourage conservation stakeholders to consider animal-welfare consequentialism as an ethical approach to minimize harms to the animals under their care as well as other animals that policies may affect while at the same time pursuing conservation goals.