Using fuzzy set theory to address the uncertainty of susceptibility to drought

This paper presents the technical aspects of a new methodology for assessing the susceptibility of society to drought. The methodology consists of a combination of inference modelling and fuzzy logic applications. Four steps are followed: (1) model input variables are selected—these variables reflect the main factors influencing susceptibility in a social group, population or region, (2) fuzzification—the uncertainties of the input variables are made explicit by representing them as ‘fuzzy membership functions’, (3) inference modelling—the input variables are used to construct a model made up of linguistic rules, and (4) defuzzification—results from the model in linguistic form are translated into numerical form, also through the use of fuzzy membership functions. The disadvantages and advantages of this methodology became apparent when it was applied to the assessment of susceptibility from three disciplinary perspectives: Disadvantages include the difficulty in validating results and the subjectivity involved with specifying fuzzy membership functions and the rules of the inference model. Advantages of the methodology are its transparency, because all model assumptions have to be made explicit in the form of inference rules; its flexibility, in that informal and expert knowledge can be incorporated through ‘fuzzy membership functions’ and through the rules in the inference model; and its versatility, since numerical data can be converted to linguistic statements and vice versa through the procedures of ‘fuzzification’ and ‘defuzzification’.     

Effects of two organophosphorus insecticides on some biochemical constituents in the nervous system and liver of rabbits

Male Baladi rabbits were acutely and sub-chronically intoxicated with cyanofenphos and profenophos. The levels of cholesterol, triglycerides, B-lipoproteins and total proteins were determined in the serum, brain, spinal cord and sciatic nerve of rabbits. Moreover, the activities of alkaline phosphatase, acid phosphatase and glutamic-pyruvic transaminase were determined in the liver of the animals. The whole studies revealed that the biochemical constituents were highly affected by the tested insecticides. Also, the liver function suffered from adverse effects of the tested insecticides.     

Coat color polymorphism in populations of the northern mole vole in the Ural Region

Collections made in the course of long-term field studies on ecology of the northern mole vole Ellobius talpinus Pall. in the Ural Region and neighboring areas (more than 2000 individuals from 24 points of the species range) were used to analyze geographic variation in its coat color (color morphs). On the basis of long-term observations (1985–1999) on marked animals from a polymorphic population (Kurtamyshskii raion, Kurgan oblast), the life spans of males and females and the dependence of life span on population density and structure were estimated in animals of different color morphs. Each color morph of E. talpinus was shown to have specific features of the seasonal dynamics of age structure and migrations.     

Importance of eating habits and sample size in the estimation of environmental mercury contamination using biological indicators

The importance of eating habits and the number of fish sampled in the estimation of mercury environmental contamination through biological indicators was studied. The species used were one with piscivorous habits (Anguilla anguilla) and another with omnivorous habits (Ciprinus carpio). From one original sample for each species, randomized samples were generated using the subroutine GGSRS from the mathematics library IMSL, and later the statistical significance of Pearson's correlation coefficient for the relationship between fish weight and mercury concentrations in muscle was obtained for each random sample. The results show that the use of omnivorous species such as Ciprinus carpio as a biological indicator of contamination enables us to carry out estimations with a greater degree of confidence than when piscivorous species such as Anguilla anguilla are used.     

Role of vitamin A in the haematotoxicity of hexachlorocyclohexane (HCH) in the rat.

The haematotoxicity of technical hexachlorocyclohexane (HCH) (1000 ppm) was investigated in male albino rats fed with diet free of vitamin A or containing vitamin A at 2000 or 10(5) I.U./kg. Assessment of HCH-induced haematotoxicity at the end of the 7 weeks feeding period was done on the basis of haemoglobin content, total count of red blood cells and white blood cells and the differential counts of the white blood cells as well as by parameters such as packed cell volume, mean corpuscular volume, mean corpuscular haemoglobin, mean corpuscular haemoglobin content, prothrombin time and clotting time. In the rats fed with vitamin A-free diet containing HCH, significant reductions were noticed in the total white blood cells count, clotting time and prothrombin time indicating severe haematotoxicity. Differential count of the white blood cells of these rats revealed a non-significant reduction in the lymphocyte count. The only indication of haematotoxicity caused by hexachlorocyclohexane in the vitamin A supplemented rats was a slight but statistically significant reduction of the total count of white blood cells. These results demonstrate that the haematotoxicity of hexachlorocyclohexane in the rats is enhanced by vitamin A-deficiency and its supplementation particularly in excess but not at hypervitaminotic level is protective against the toxicity.     

Progress in Restoration of the Mauritius Kestrel

In the 1970s, the Mauritius Kestrel ( Falco punctatus ) was the most endangered bird of prey in the world, at one time with only two known pairs surviving in the remnant native forest of the Black River Gorges (ca. 4,000 ha). At the end of the 1991–1992 breeding season, a minimum of 30 nesting pairs and more than 170 individuals were distributed in four separate forested areas, thanks mainly to manipulation of the reproductive potential of the wild pairs, to captive propagation, and to reintroduction (restocking). Since 1984, 139 young have been reared from 618 eggs laid by captive kestrels, and 147 from 265 wild eggs incubated and hatched in the laboratory; 235 young kestrels have been released on Mauritius by hacking and fostering. Adjustments in feeding and nesting habits of kestrels hacked and released outside the Black River Gorges in areas dominated by exotic vegetation and agriculture have allowed these kestrels to survive and reproduce in an array of previously unused habitats. Now that the kestrels have been released from dependence on the remnant and dying native forest, a viable population of more than 100 nesting pairs should be achievable in a few more years.