Simulated distributions of Baltic Sea-ice in warming climate and consequences for the winter habitat of the Baltic ringed seal

Sea-ice in the Baltic Sea in present and future climates is investigated. The Rossby Centre Regional Atmosphere-Ocean model was used to perform a set of 30-year-long time slice experiments. For each of the two driving global models HadAM3H and ECHAM4/OPYC3, one control run (1961-1990) and two scenario runs (2071-2100) based upon the SRES A2 and B2 emission scenarios were conducted. The future sea-ice volume in the Baltic Sea is reduced by 83% on average. The Bothnian Sea, large areas of the Gulf of Finland and Gulf of Riga, and the outer parts of the southwestern archipelago of Finland will become ice-free in the mean. The presented scenarios are used to study the impact of climate change on the Baltic ringed seal (Phoca hispida botnica). Climate change seems to be a major threat to all southern populations. The only fairly good winter sea-ice habitat is found to be confined to the Bay of Bothnia.     

Release of uranium from rock matrix--a record of glacial meltwater intrusions?

Uranium release observed in a rock matrix around water-carrying fractures was studied using U-series disequilibrium (USD) modelling and mass balance calculations. Several release scenarios were tested, with specific attention to the glacial aspects. The release appears to have occurred in two or three violent episodes during the last 300 ky. A release after the last glaciation can be excluded on mass flow grounds. Continuous release for more than 300 ky can be excluded on radioactive disequilibrium grounds. Repeated inflows of oxic glacial meltwater seem to have triggered the release episodes.     

The Rossby Centre Regional Atmospheric Climate Model part II: application to the Arctic climate

The Rossby Centre regional climate model (RCA2) has been integrated over the Arctic Ocean as part of the international ARCMIP project. Results have been compared to observations derived from the SHEBA data set. The standard RCA2 model overpredicts cloud cover and downwelling longwave radiation, during the Arctic winter. This error was improved by introducing a new cloud parameterization, which significantly improves the annual cycle of cloud cover. Compensating biases between clear sky downwelling longwave radiation and longwave radiation emitted from cloud base were identified. Modifications have been introduced to the model radiation scheme that more accurately treat solar radiation interaction with ice crystals. This leads to a more realistic representation of cloud-solar radiation interaction. The clear sky portion of the model radiation code transmits too much solar radiation through the atmosphere, producing a positive bias at the top of the frequent boundary layer clouds. A realistic treatment of the temporally evolving albedo, of both sea-ice and snow, appears crucial for an accurate simulation of the net surface energy budget. Likewise, inclusion of a prognostic snow-surface temperature seems necessary, to accurately simulate near-surface thermodynamic processes in the Arctic.     

Do changes in risk-taking affect habitat shifts of sticklebacks?

The distribution of individuals is often the outcome of conflicting demands, such as between predator avoidance and reproduction. A factor that has seldom been considered in studies on habitat choice is time-dependent changes in risk-taking. We investigated the distribution of threespine sticklebacks, Gasterosteus aculeatus, over two breeding seasons and found it to change with time towards shallower areas with a more open habitat structure. Shallow and structurally less complex habitats were probably favorable due to a higher reproductive rate, but costly due to an increased risk of predation. Contrary to expectation, changing predation pressure was not a predictor of the shift in habitat use and, thus, not the proximate cue. Instead date was the main predictor. This suggests that increased risk-taking in relation to predation contributed to the habitat shift. The possibility was supported by a laboratory experiment that showed sticklebacks to take larger risks and prefer more predator-exposed areas at the end of the season than at the start of the season. These results demonstrate that temporal changes in risk-taking occur and can influence habitat choice, which points to the importance of considering risk-taking, in addition to predation pressure, when studying the effect of predators on distribution.Communicated by J. Krause     

Predation risk affects courtship and attractiveness of competing threespine stickleback males

The effect of predation risk and male-male competition on male courtship behaviour and attractiveness to females was studied in the threespine stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) by presenting dummy or live females to solitary and competing males under different predation risks. In the presence of a predator, males decreased courtship activity. Different courtship components were, however, adjusted to different extents and in opposing directions to predation risk, probably because the single components may have varied in riskiness. The presence of a competing male decreased overall courtship activity, but increased the frequency of zigzags, suggesting zigzagging to be a competitive strategy against other males. In the presence of a predator male courtship activity was not affected by a competitor. Female mate choice correlated with the males' previous frequency of zigzags towards a dummy female. However, when a live female paid attention to a male, the male decreased zigzagging and instead increased leading and fanning behaviours, probably trying to attract the female to the nest to mate. Predation risk affected the attractiveness of males as females reduced their attention to a male when he faced a predator and reduced his courtship activity. As females instead increased their attention to a competing male that had increased his courtship activity, due to decreased competition, males clearly are balancing mating opportunities against predator avoidance. When males vary in their susceptibility to predators, predation risk may thus affect mating success of competing males. Received: 31 January 1997 / Accepted after revision: 15 April 1997     

北极苔原和森林地区的稳定性及脆弱性与社会和环境变化

北极苔原带和北方森林(北部地区)因其分布广阔并远离农业土地利用变化及工业发展的影响,而一度被认为是地球上最后的净土.但如今这些地区如同地球上任何别的地区一样,也正经受着环境和社会变化的影响.本文总结了北部地区在全球系统中所起的作用,并提出方案以便对导致该地区对社会和环境变化敏感的那些因子进行评价.     

The role of CH4 and N2O emission reductions in the cost-effective control of the greenhouse gas emissions from Finland

The reduction of carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions may be quite expensive and it is necessary to consider reduction measures for other anthropogenic greenhouse gases, such as methane (CH₄) and nitrous oxide (N₂O) as well. Their contribution to the total GHG emission from Finland is about 15–20%. In Finland most of the CH₄ emissions are due to waste management, agriculture and burning processes. N₂O emissions originate from burning processes, agriculture, industry and atmospheric deposition of nitrogen. The cost-effective reduction of the Finnish GHG emissions has been studied with the EFOM-ENV model, which is a quasi-dynamic linear energy system optimisation model. The target function to be minimised is the total discounted cost for the modelled system. In this study the model has been expanded to cover all well-known anthropogenic CO₂, CH₄ and N₂O sources and reduction measures. The results indicate it is economic to reduce the emissions of CO₂, CH₄ and N₂O in Finland. It is profitable to exploit the economic reduction potential of CH₄ and N₂O, because then the abatement of CO₂ emissions does not need to be as extensive as when the reduction is aimed only at CO₂ emissions. The inclusion of CH₄ and N₂O decreases the annual reduction costs about 20% in the year 2010.     

Secretor Status is Associated with Susceptibility to Disease in a Large GII.6 Norovirus Foodborne Outbreak

Food and Environmental Virology - Norovirus is commonly associated with food and waterborne outbreaks. Genetic susceptibility to norovirus is largely dependent on presence of histo-blood group...