Correction to: Identification of structural breaks in the forest product markets: how sensitive are to changes in the Nordic region?

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change - This paper was published on March 2017, Volume 22, Issue 3, 469–483pp, titled “Identification of structural breaks in the forest...     

In the mixed world of predictive biology—Contradiction or support

Statistical prediction is a tool and aim in ecology and wildlife management and conservation. A prediction may either be supported by or contradicted by observations of an unknown set of observations. A contradiction occurs if the prediction is not included within the range of the unknown observations, i.e. the prediction misses the cloud of observations completely. Mixed-effects models, frequently used for statistical assessment of clustered data, carry information needed for calculating the probability of such contradictions. Here we present a new versatile statistic, the probability of contradiction (P (Contra)), that describes how often we would anticipate a new cluster of observations contradicting our predictions. Some benefits of P (Contra) are: (1) easy to calculate and intuitive interpretation, (2) comparability between datasets, (3) inclusion of residual correlation, (4) summary of the multitude of information from mixed models into one statistics, and (5) applicable to local mixed-effect models.     

Fatally injured drivers in Norway 2005–2015—Trends in substance use and crash characteristics

Objective: Norway introduced a “Vision Zero” strategy in 2001, using multiple approaches, aiming toward a future in which no one will be killed or seriously injured in road traffic crashes (RTCs). Official statistics show that the number of fatally injured road users has declined substantially from 341 deaths in 2000 to 117 in 2015. In-depth crash investigations of all fatal RTCs started in Norway in 2005. The aim of this study was to investigate whether fatal crash characteristics, vehicle safety features, and prevalence of drugs and/or alcohol among fatally injured drivers and riders has changed during 2005–2015, accompanying the reduction in road fatalities.

Methods: Data on all car/van drivers and motorcycle/moped riders fatally injured in RTCs during 2005–2015 were extracted from Norwegian road traffic crash registries and combined with forensic toxicology data.

Results: The proportion of cars and motorcycles with antilock braking systems and cars with electronic stability control, increased significantly during the study period. The prevalence of nonuse of seat belts/helmets and speeding declined among both fatally injured drivers and riders. In addition, the prevalence of alcohol declined, though no significant change in the total prevalence of other substances was noted.

Conclusion: The observed changes toward more safety installations in cars and motorcycles and lower prevalence of driver-related risk factors like alcohol use, speeding, and nonuse of seat belts/helmets among fatally injured drivers/riders may have contributed to the decrease in road traffic deaths.     

Perfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs) in food and water from Faroe Islands

Diet and drinking water are suggested to be major exposure pathways for perfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs). In this study, food items and water from Faroe Islands sampled in 2011/2012 were analyzed for 11 perfluoroalkyl carboxylic acids (PFCAs) and 4 perfluoroalkane sulfonic acids (PFSAs). The food samples included milk, yoghurt, crème fraiche, potatoes, fish, and fish feed, and the water samples included surface water and purified drinking water. In total, nine PFCAs and four PFSAs were detected. Generally, the levels of PFAS were in the lower picogram per gram range. Perfluorobutanoic acid was a major contributor to the total PFASs concentration in water samples and had a mean concentration of 750 pg/L. Perfluoroundecanoic acid (PFUnDA) was predominating in milk and wild fish with mean concentrations of 170 pg/g. Perfluorooctane sulfonic acid (PFOS) was most frequently detected in food items followed by PFUnDA, perfluorononanoic acid, and perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA). Levels of PFUnDA and PFOA exceeded those of PFOS in milk and fish samples. Prevalence of long-chain PFCAs in Faroese food items and water is confirming earlier observations of their increase in Arctic biota. Predominance of short-chain and long-chain homologues indicates exposure from PFOS and PFOA replacement compounds.     

Selection of Islands for Conservation in the Urban Archipelago of Helsinki, Finland

Abstract: The occurrence of vascular plants was surveyed on 207 islands (size range 0.01–390.2 ha, number of plant species 1–449) offshore from the city of Helsinki in the Baltic Sea to examine the conservation value of these islands. We calculated a rarity score for each species (1/number of islands occupied by the species) and a biodiversity score for each island (sum of the rarity scores of each species present on the island). Positive correlations between species number and biodiversity score (r _s = 0.97, p < 0.001) and between biodiversity score and island area (r _s = 0.87, p < 0.001) indicated that these parameters are heavily dependent on island size. With the goal of including at least one occurrence (island) of all plant species, an iterative selection algorithm chose a set of 41 islands whose average size (29.3 ha) was four times the average size of all existing islands (7.0 ha). Strong nestedness ( N < 54) explains the concentration of plant species diversity on large islands. An operational strategy for selection of sites for protection is to complement the set produced by a selection algorithm with target species not yet included (e.g., endangered species with several occurrences). Comprehensive mapping and analysis of a taxonomic group will help integrate conservation biology into land-use planning and increase the quality of the networks of protected areas.     

Microbial pyrite removal from hard coal

Thiobacilli may either attack coal-contained pyrite directly or contribute to its oxidation via catalysing the oxidation of ferrous salts by oxygen dissolved in water. The part played by either of the above mechanisms during pyrite removal from hard coals is discussed. This is followed by a review of experiments meant to identify the influence of coal rank, grain size, pyrite genesis and content, on pyrite removal efficiency over time. The paper reports on experiments to determine the seepage rate of the nutritive solution with bacteria, termed “biopulp”, in coal heaps. Investigations into the alteration of coal properties due to pyrite removal are dealt with. Concluding, plant dimensions and the costs of pyrite removal, as derived from two designs of relevant plants, are presented.