A new method for broad-scale modeling and projection of plant assemblages under climatic,biotic, and environmental cofiltering

There is increasing interestin broad-scale analysis, modeling, and prediction of the distribution and composition of plant species assemblages under climatic, environmental, and biotic change, particularly for conservation purposes. We devised a method to reliably predict the impact of climate change on large assemblages of plant communities, while also considering competing biotic and environmental factors. To this purpose, we first used multilabel algorithms in order to convert the task of explaining a large assemblage of plant communities into a classification framework able to capture with high cross-validated accuracy the pattern of species distributions under a composite set of biotic and abiotic factors. We applied our model to a large set of plant communities in the Swiss Alps. Our model explained presences and absences of 175 plant species in 608 plots with >87% cross-validated accuracy, predicted decreases in α, β, and γ diversity by 2040 under both moderate and extreme climate scenarios, and identified likely advantaged and disadvantaged plant species under climate change. Multilabel variable selection revealed the overriding importance of topography, soils, and temperature extremes (rather than averages) in determining the distribution of plant species in the study area and their response to climate change. Our method addressed a number of challenging research problems, such as scaling to large numbers of species, considering species relationships and rarity, and addressing an overwhelming proportion of absences in presence–absence matrices. By handling hundreds to thousands of plants and plots simultaneously over large areas, our method can inform broad-scale conservation of plant species under climate change because it allows species that require urgent conservation action (assisted migration, seed conservation, and ex situ conservation) to be detected and prioritized. Our method also increases the practicality of assisted colonization of plant species by helping to prevent ill-advised introduction of plant species with limited future survival probability.     

Ocean acidification induces budding in larval sea urchins

Ocean acidification (OA), the reduction of ocean pH due to hydration of atmospheric CO₂, is known to affect growth and survival of marine invertebrate larvae. Survival and transport of vulnerable planktonic larval stages play important roles in determining population dynamics and community structures in coastal ecosystems. Here, we show that larvae of the purple urchin, Strongylocentrotus purpuratus, underwent high-frequency budding (release of blastula-like particles) when exposed to elevated pCO₂ level (>700 μatm). Budding was observed in >50 % of the population and was synchronized over short periods of time (~24 h), suggesting this phenomenon may be previously overlooked. Although budding can be a mechanism through which larval echinoids asexually reproduce, here, the released buds did not develop into viable clones. OA-induced budding and the associated reduction in larval size suggest new hypotheses regarding physiological and ecological tradeoffs between short-term benefits (e.g. metabolic savings and predation escape) and long-term costs (e.g. tissue loss and delayed development) in the face of climate change.     

Contrasting population structures in two sympatric fishes in the Baltic Sea basin

Detailed multispecies studies on the patterns of genetic variability and differentiation in marine environments are still rare. Using mitochondrial and nuclear genetic markers, we compared genetic variability and population structuring of threespine (Gasterosteus aculeatus) and ninespine (Pungitius pungitius) sticklebacks from the same eleven marine and six freshwater locations within the Baltic Sea basin. Analyses of both marker types revealed a significantly lower degree of genetic structuring in both marine and freshwater populations of threespine than those ninespine sticklebacks. Isolation-by-distance (IBD) was detected across the marine populations in both species, suggesting spatially limited gene flow. However, the levels of genetic diversity and differentiation across the localities were uncorrelated between the two species in both marine and freshwater environments. Accordingly, estimates of effective population sizes were larger and migration rates were higher for three- than for ninespine sticklebacks. Hence, ninespine stickleback populations from the Baltic Sea basin appear to be subject to stronger genetic drift than sympatric threespine sticklebacks, and the proximate reason for this difference is likely to be found from autecological differences between the two species. In accordance with the earlier studies, genetic variability was higher and the degree of genetic differentiation was lower in marine than in freshwater populations in both species.     

Testing hypotheses in evolutionary ecology with imperfect detection: capture-recapture structural equation modeling

Studying evolutionary mechanisms in natural populations often requires testing multifactorial scenarios of causality involving direct and indirect relationships among individual and environmental variables. It is also essential to account for the imperfect detection of individuals to provide unbiased demographic parameter estimates. To cope with these issues, we developed a new approach combining structural equation models with capture-recapture models (CR-SEM) that allows the investigation of competing hypotheses about individual and environmental variability observed in demographic parameters. We employ Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling in a Bayesian framework to (1) estimate model parameters, (2) implement a model selection procedure to evaluate competing hypotheses about causal mechanisms, and (3) assess the fit of models to data using posterior predictive checks. We illustrate the value of our approach using two case studies on wild bird populations. We first show that CR-SEM can be useful to quantify the action of selection on a set of phenotypic traits with an analysis of selection gradients on morphological traits in Common Blackbirds (Turdus merula). In a second case study on Blue Tits (Cyanistes caeruleus), we illustrate the use of CR-SEM to study evolutionary trade-offs in the wild, while accounting for varying environmental conditions.     

Modeling species co-occurrence by multivariate logistic regression generates new hypotheses on fungal interactions

Signals of species interactions can be inferred from survey data by asking if some species occur more or less often together than what would be expected by random, or more generally, if any structural aspect of the community deviates from that expected from a set of independent species. However, a positive (or negative) association between two species does not necessarily signify a direct or indirect interaction, as it can result simply from the species having similar (or dissimilar) habitat requirements. We show how these two factors can be separated by multivariate logistic regression, with the regression part accounting for species-specific habitat requirements, and a correlation matrix for the positive or negative residual associations. We parameterize the model using Bayesian inference with data on 22 species of wood-decaying fungi acquired in 14 dissimilar forest sites. Our analyses reveal that some of the species commonly found to occur together in the same logs are likely to do so merely by similar habitat requirements, whereas other species combinations are systematically either over- or underrepresented also or only after accounting for the habitat requirements. We use our results to derive hypotheses on species interactions that can be tested in future experimental work.     

Mediating male–male interactions: the role of the UV blue crest coloration in blue tits

Badges of status, usually color patches, are hypothesized to serve as important signals within natural populations by communicating an individual’s fighting ability or aggressiveness before an interaction ever takes place. These signals, which may evolve via sexual and/or social selection, mediate intra-specific competition by influencing the outcome or escalation of contests between individuals. The last 10 years saw the rise of interest in the role of ultraviolet (UV)-based coloration in intra-sexual communication. However, the rare experimental studies that tested this hypothesis found opposite results, which may originate from the different methodological procedures used to assess the badge of status theory. We present here the results of an experiment testing whether male blue tits (Cyanistes caeruleus) respond differently to unfamiliar conspecifics presenting contrasted UV crest coloration. In an aviary, we simultaneously presented two caged blue tits with enhanced (UV+) or reduced (UV−) crest coloration to a focal bird. We found that focal males acted more aggressively towards the UV− males than UV+ males. In addition, focal males fed more often close to males that were similar in brightness or duller than themselves. We conclude that, in blue tits, UV blue crest coloration affects both social and aggressive responses towards unfamiliar individuals, and thus it has some properties of a badge of status.     

Understanding farmers' influence on land-use change using a participatory Bayesian network approach in a pre-Alpine region in Switzerland

Land-use models can be used to assess the importance of different drivers of land-use change. Local actors make land-use decisions on the basis of both biophysical and policy aspects, but they can also be considered as autonomous drivers as their attitudes and beliefs influence land-use substantially. We use a Bayesian network-based Land-use Modeling Approach (BLUMAP) to analyze influences of local actor characteristics on land-use change in a spatially explicit manner. Our analysis shows that local actor characteristics have a greater influence on land-use change than changes in agricultural policy schemes. Furthermore, focusing on the probabilities of land-use occurrence under different scenarios facilitates the quantification of influences of local actor characteristics on land-use changes and aids in the detection of where land-use changes are more likely to occur. We demonstrate that local actor characteristics could override land-use policy trends; thus, greater consideration should be paid to actors in land-use development processes.     

Comparison of translocation methods to conserve metallophyte communities in the Southeastern D.R. Congo

In southeastern Democratic Republic of Congo, unique metallophyte communities supporting numerous endemic species occurred on the highly mineralized copper cobalt (Cu–Co) hills throughout the province. These hills are economically valuable mineral reserves; mining activities represent therefore a threat to the long-term persistence of these communities. Ex situ conservation program was set up by a mining company to rescue and conserve the diversity of Cu–Co communities until restoration activities are initiated. Two kinds of Cu–Co communities: the steppe and the steppic savanna, were translocated using topsoil spreading and whole-turf translocation. In this study, we assessed the effectiveness of these two techniques in conserving Cu–Co communities and their potential use in future restoration programs. More than 2 years after the translocation, whole-turf translocation appeared to be the better technique for ex situ conservation of endemic Cu–Co species. Not only did whole-turf successfully translocate numerous target species that were not present in the topsoil areas, but it also resulted in fewer ruderal and non-target species compared to topsoil spreading. Topsoil spreading recorded low seedling emergence from seed bank due to large proportions of dormant seeds or the absence of a seed bank, especially for the steppic savanna. Restoration of the steppe is currently more successful than for steppic savanna where the lack of dominant and structuring species likely contributed to divergence in species composition compared to reference ecosystem. Our study stresses the fact that tropical old-growth grasslands, which require probably several centuries to assemble, are difficult to restore or translocate.     

Environmental risk assessment in five rivers of Parana River basin,Southern Brazil,through biomarkers in Astyanax spp.

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - In the current study, water quality of five river sites in Parana River basin (Brazil), utilized for public water supply, was assessed through a set...     

Managing tricky decentralised competencies: case study of a participatory modelling experiment on land use in the Lake Guiers area in Northern Senegal

We describe an action-research project whose objective was to help stakeholders at different organisational levels achieve sustainable land management by developing mediation models and tools. We chose to test a specific approach called companion modelling in the framework of a multidisciplinary research partnership and a formal local partnership (a ‘users committee’) involving an array of stakeholders at different organisational levels. The study area covers 10,000 km² of agro-pastoral land around Lake Guiers in northern Senegal. We conducted studies to update the knowledge base of the area and organised six field workshops that clearly revealed three important tool functions to support decision-making on land use at different scales, i.e. understanding maps, monitoring and evaluating land tenure, and foreseeing changes in land use. We found that a toolbox approach was the best way to implement the three functions and overcome the constraints faced by the research team and those linked to the timing of the project. Therefore, we produced five simple complementary tools aimed at various users: a farm-level optimisation model (for researchers and technical services), a database for land allocations and a discussion tool to assess the impact of land allocation decisions (for the rural council), a paper atlas (for local players) and a regional land use change simulation model (for regional and national planners). Participants were able to work with paper maps, to interpret computer-generated simulations of land use change and understand the strengths and limitations of each. Self-assessment of the research process emphasised the importance of the context and the critical role played by social capital at both the research and the field level, which, in turn, emphasised the need for major improvements in the design and implementation of a quality process for participatory modelling. It turns out that action-research may be an effective way to undertake sustainability science.