Freshwater stress on small island developing states: population projections and aridity changes at 1.5 and 2 °C

Small island developing states (SIDS) face multiple threats from anthropogenic climate change, including potential changes in freshwater resource availability. Due to a mismatch in spatial scale between SIDS landforms and the horizontal resolution of global climate models (GCMs), SIDS are mostly unaccounted for in GCMs that are used to make future projections of global climate change and its regional impacts. Specific approaches are required to address this gap between broad-scale model projections and regional, policy-relevant outcomes. Here, we apply a recently developed methodology that circumvents the GCM limitation of coarse resolution in order to project future changes in aridity on small islands. These climate projections are combined with independent population projections associated with shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) to evaluate overall changes in freshwater stress in SIDS at warming levels of 1.5 and 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. While we find that future population growth will dominate changes in projected freshwater stress especially toward the end of the century, projected changes in aridity are found to compound freshwater stress for the vast majority of SIDS. For several SIDS, particularly across the Caribbean region, a substantial fraction (~?25%) of the large overall freshwater stress projected under 2 °C at 2030 can be avoided by limiting global warming to 1.5 °C. Our findings add to a growing body of literature on the difference in climate impacts between 1.5 and 2 °C and underscore the need for regionally specific analysis.     

Reducing external costs of nitrogen pollution by relocation of pig production between regions in the European Union

This paper tests the hypothesis that relocation of pig production within the EU27 can reduce the external costs of nitrogen (N) pollution. The external cost of pollution by ammonia and nitrate from agriculture in the European Union (EU27) in 2008 was estimated at 61–215 billion € (0.5 to 1.8% of the GDP). Per capita it ranged from more than 1000 € in north-west EU27 to 50 € in Romania. The average contribution of pig production was 15%. Using provincial data (224 NUTS2 regions in EU27), the potential reduction of external N cost by relocation of pig production was estimated at 14 billion € (10% of the total). Regions most eligible for decreasing the pig stock were in western Germany, Flemish region, Denmark, the Netherlands and Bretagne, while Romania is most eligible for increasing pig production. Relocating 20 million pigs (13% of the total EU stock) decreased average external costs per capita from 900 to 785 € in the 13 NUTS2 regions where pigs were removed and increased from 69 to 107 € in 11 regions receiving pigs. A second alternative configuration of pig production was targeted at reducing exceedance of critical N deposition and closing regional nutrient cycles. This configuration relocates pigs within Germany and France, for example from Bretagne to Northern France and from Weser-Ems to Oberbayern. However, total external cost increases due to an increase of health impacts, unless when combined with implementation of best N management practices. Relocation of the pig industry in the EU27 will meet many socio-economic barriers and realisation requires new policy incentives.     

Assessing the implications of a 1.5 °C temperature limit for the Jamaican agriculture sector

Despite recent calls to limit future increases in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C, little is known about how different climatic thresholds will impact human society. Future warming trends have significant global food security implications, particularly for small island developing states (SIDS) that are recognized as being among the most vulnerable to global climate change. In the case of the Caribbean, any significant change in the region’s climate is likely to have significant adverse effects on the agriculture sector. This paper explores the potential biophysical impacts of a +?1.5 °C warming scenario on several economically important crops grown in the Caribbean island of Jamaica. Also, it explores differences to a >?2.0 °C warming scenario, which is more likely, if the current policy agreements cannot be complied with by the international community. We use the ECOCROP niche model to estimate how predicted changes in future climate could affect the growing conditions of several commonly cultivated crops from both future scenarios. We then discuss some key policy considerations for Jamaica’s agriculture sector, specifically related to the challenges posed to future adaptation pathways amidst growing climate uncertainty and complexity. Our model results show that even an increase less than +?1.5 °C is expected to have an overall negative impact on crop suitability and a general reduction in the range of crops available to Jamaican farmers. This observation is instructive as increases above the +?1.5 °C threshold would likely lead to even more irreversible and potentially catastrophic changes to the sustainability of Jamaica’s agriculture sector. The paper concludes by outlining some key considerations for future action, paying keen attention to the policy relevance of a +?1.5 °C temperature limit. Given little room for optimism with respect to the imminent changes that SIDS will need to confront in the near future, broad-based policy engagement by stakeholders in these geographies is paramount, irrespective of the climate warming scenario.     

Promoting e-mobility in India: challenges,framework, and future roadmap

The purpose of the research is to identify the critical challenges that are impeding the adoption of e-mobility in India. It also aims to give a roadmap how to address these challenges while taking into considerations concerns of all the relevant stakeholders. Based on an in-depth literature review, an exploratory research design is employed to delve deep into various aspects of e-mobility. This is followed by a three-phase Delphi technique to identify and rate the e-mobility challenges in the Indian context. The study successfully identifies four different categories of challenges and proposes integrative framework for e-mobility. Further, the research goes on to lay out the future roadmap for mass adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) in India. The research is novel in terms of presenting a holistic viewpoint on e-mobility in India. Its originality lies in identifying the major inhibitors obstructing EVs adoption in India and then suggesting the roadmap how to overcome these impediments for mass adoption of e-mobility.     

Investigating the oil curse in OECD and Non-OECD oil-exporting economies using green measures of income

Empirical studies investigating the natural resource curse theory mostly employ cross-country and panel regression techniques subject to endogeneity bias. Also, most of these studies employ GDP in its aggregate or per-capita terms as the outcome variable in their analyses. However, the use of GDP measures of income for resource curse investigations may not portray the true incomes of resource-intensive economies. Standard national accounts treat natural resource rents as a positive contribution to income without adjusting for the value of depleted natural resource stock. This treatment often leads to a positive bias in the national income computations of resource-rich economies. Unlike previous studies, we test the robustness of the curse in the predominantly used measures of national income, GDP, by investigating the theme in genuine income measures of economic output as well. Also, the paper deviates from most empirical studies in the literature by using the Arellano–Bond difference GMM method in investigating the oil curse in OECD and Non-OECD oil-exporting economies. Additionally, we employ two alternative measures of resource intensity in our explorations; the share of oil rents in GDP and per-capita oil reserves. Our results provide evidence of the curse in Non-OECD countries employing aggregate and per-capita measures of genuine income.     

Sustainability indicators in the swine industry of the Brazilian State of Santa Catarina

In recent decades, there has been a growing concern about measuring and evaluating the results of intensive production practices, such as the mode of integration practiced on a large scale by agro-industries. The present study discusses the application and the results of a Sustainability Indicators System in the context of the swine industry in the Brazilian State of Santa Catarina. These indicators, focused on the level of sustainability maturity, can be used as a way to diagnose and compare the efficiency of the industry from a broader perspective. The research findings indicate that most of the pig farms that have been studied can be classified as “in search of sustainability or sustainable.” Nevertheless, there are differences among the dimensions and between the most ranked farms and the others which must be considered for a better design and application of public policies and company strategies toward an effective and balanced social, economic and environmental sustainability.     

Discerning the factors explaining the change in energy efficiency

Due to the high rates of energy consumption and its impact on environment over the last decades, policy decision-makers are increasingly recognising the need to take actions that allow to address problems associated with the deployment of non-renewable resources and climate changes. One field of action has been the promotion of measures that contribute to improve energy efficiency of countries. The purpose of this study is to identify the main factors explaining changes in energy efficiency applying the multiplicative Log Mean Divisia Index decomposition method for a set of countries (Portugal, UK, Brazil and China) with different socio-economic background and energy mix. The results show that overall energy efficiency trends display different patterns between countries and the same happens within each country from a sectoral perspective. Major drivers of improvements of overall energy efficiency were the intensity effect and the affluence effect, whereas the driver that hampered those improvements was the energy consumption per capita. Some policy implications derived from the results achieved are: policy decision-makers should support measures that promote the adoption of energy-saving technologies resulting from new technological developments; policy measures should be directed to raise awareness of end-users regarding energy efficiency and energy conservation efforts; policy measures promoting economic growth through the development (or expansion) of sectors of activity that consume less energy can also be implemented; finally, policy instruments may also be used to reduce the costs of implementing energy efficiency and energy-saving measures to households and firms.     

Discrete-choice experiments valuing local environmental impacts of renewables: two approaches to a case study in Portugal

Despite the often mentioned environmental benefits associated with transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources, their use for electricity production has non-negligible negative environmental impacts. The most commonly mentioned in surveys concern different types of landscape impacts, impacts on the fauna and flora, and noise. These impacts differ by size and location of plants, and by source of energy, rendering the policy decision complex. In addition, there are other welfare issues to take into consideration, as positive and negative environmental impacts are not evenly distributed among population groups. This paper proposes to compare the welfare impacts of renewable energy sources controlling for the type of renewable as well as the specific environmental impact by source. To this end, two discrete-choice experiments are designed and applied to a national sample of the Portuguese population. In one case, only individual negative impacts of renewables are used, and in another case, the negative impacts interact with a specific source. Results show the robustness of discrete-choice experiments as a method to estimate the welfare change induced by the impacts of renewable energy sources. Overall, respondents are willing to pay to reduce the environmental impacts, thus making compensation for local impacts feasible. Moreover, the estimations reveal that respondents are significantly sensitive to the detrimental environmental effects of specific renewable energy sources, being willing to pay more to use these sources of energy relative to others.     

Pollutant versus non-pollutant generation technologies: a CML-analogous analysis

In this work, we apply the Modern Portfolio Theory and the Capital Assets Pricing Model financial tools to a portfolio of CO₂-emitting generation technologies under diverse scenarios. We will calculate the efficient—in the sense of having the minimum risk for a given level of emissions—portfolios frontier. The Capital Market Line (CML) is the place where all the possible combinations of a specific efficient portfolio and a pollution-free portfolio—made up with nuclear and renewable generation technologies—lie. In Finance, that specific efficient portfolio is called the market portfolio but we will see that in our case it lacks an evident meaning. Therefore, we will explain which should be the reference portfolio for power generation planning analysis. Anyway, the fact is that those combinations are less pollutant than the portfolios in the efficient frontier. Thus, a policy-maker can analyse which is their effect on emissions reduction. We will start analysing the efficient pollutant generation portfolios. Then, we will introduce the CML-analogous lines (CML-A) to allow the possibility of reducing emissions by combining an efficient portfolio with a non-pollutant portfolio—this non-pollutant portfolio is free of both emissions and risk. Results support the necessity of considering the carbon capture and storage technology to achieve a less risky generation mix, with less emissions and allowing a higher diversification due to the presence of cleaner fossil fuel technologies. All of that leads to better levels of energy security.