W_q方法及σ_H方法在华东地区中强震预报中的应用

应用两种描述地震活动平静的特征参数Wq 和σH 对华东地区 1972年以来ML≥ 2 .3地震进行时空扫描。结果表明 :Wq 在华东地区大多数M >5地震之前均出现 1年左右或稍长时间的平静异常 ,震中一般在平静异常区的边缘或内部。对Wq 空间异常区σH 的时间扫描在某些地区也能够较好地显示1年左右的平静异常。这可能说明了地震活动平静也是中强地震的一种中短期预报指标     

我国农业水旱灾害的时间分布及重灾年景趋势预测

分析了我国 1970～ 1999年农业水旱灾害的时间分布特征。分析结果表明 :在研究时段内 ,我国农业自然灾害总体上呈增长态势。该时段可划分为两个明显的阶段 :80年代中期以前 ,总灾、水灾及旱灾对农业生产的危害较轻 ;80年代中期之后 ,呈现出影响范围广、损失增大的趋势 ,重灾年份明显增加。旱灾和水灾是威胁我国农业生产最为严重的自然灾害 ,尤以旱灾为甚。我国农业遭受旱灾威胁的范围多年基本不变 ,而旱灾受灾率波动明显 ,成灾率逐年增长 ,这与近几年农田水利设施建设缓慢、灌溉能力降低有关 ;水灾受灾率和成灾率具有特别显著的同步特点 ,表明水灾致灾能力强 ,一旦发生 ,极易成灾 ,水灾危害加剧与防洪、抗洪能力低下及生态环境恶化有关。各灾种的受灾率和成灾率呈正相关关系 ,表明我国农业生产系统的抗灾能力总体上较弱。　　本文还用灰色系统理论的建模方法 ,建立了农业总受灾率 -总成灾率、水灾受灾率 -成灾率、旱灾受灾率 -成灾率的重灾年景灰色灾变GM(1,1)预测模型 ,对未来 10年我国农业灾害趋势进行了预测分析。灰色预测结果表明 ,2 0 10年之前 ,除 2 0 0 3,2 0 0 6年水旱灾害危害较小外 ,其它年份均为灾情严重年份 ,其受灾率和成灾率均高于近 30年的平均水平。其中 ,2 0 0 4 ,2 0 0 7年将为水灾重     

江苏省洪涝灾害评估系统设计

为了迅速、合理地预测和评估洪涝灾害造成的经济损失,为防汛决策提供科学依据,从江苏省洪涝灾害防治的实际需求出发,进行了江苏省洪涝灾情评估系统的总体设计,并阐明了系统的特点,结构和功能。     

Estimation of 14CO2 flux at soil-atmosphere interface and distribution of 14C in forest ecosystem

To realize the dynamical behavior of 14C among exchangeable carbon reservoirs in terrestrial environment, a method for in situ determination of 14CO2 flux at soil-atmosphere interface and a high flow rate CO2 sampler were developed. This method allowed us to collect integrated quantity of CO2 for determining 14C activity over an extended time period under environmental conditions with minimal site disturbance. The 14CO2 flux from ground surface was estimated to be 1.59 x 10(-5) Bq m (-2) S (-1) in a forest floor with the method. The specific activities of 14C in environmental materials such as some biological and air samples were also determined in the vicinity of the place, where the flux measurement was made, to discuss the behavior of 14C in the forest ecosystem. The results indicated that fresh pine needles had a similar 14C specific activity to the atmospheric CO2 at the same height due to its fairly rapid equilibrium, 14C specific activity in the atmospheric CO2 has a concentration gradient near the ground surface and, at least in this site, CO2 with high 14C specific activity was generated by decomposition of soil organic matter which may be accumulated in soil as a result of former nuclear weapons tests.     

Selective leaching of valuable metals from waste printed circuit boards

This study was carried out to recover valuable metals from the printed circuit boards (PCBs) of waste computers. PCB samples were crushed to smaller than 1 mm by a shredder and initially separated into 30% conducting and 70% nonconducting materials by an electrostatic separator. The conducting materials, which contained the valuable metals, were then used as the feed material for magnetic separation, where it was found that 42% of the conducting materials were magnetic and 58% were nonmagnetic. Leaching of the nonmagnetic component using 2 M H2SO4 and 0.2 M H2O2 at 85 degrees C for 12 hr resulted in greater than 95% extraction of Cu, Fe, Zn, Ni, and Al. Au and Ag were extracted at 40 degrees C with a leaching solution of 0.2 M (NH4)2S2O3, 0.02 M CuSO4, and 0.4 M NH4OH, which resulted in recovery of more than 95% of the Au within 48 hr and 100% of the Ag within 24 hr. The residues were next reacted with a 2 M NaCl solution to leach out Pb, which took place within 2 hr at room temperature.     

Present background levels of surface 137Cs and (239,240)Pu concentrations in the Pacific

The present levels of anthropogenic radionuclides, 137Cs and (239,240)Pu, in surface waters of the Pacific are estimated using the HAM database, which is a comprehensive data set of 137Cs, (239,240)Pu and other anthropogenic radionuclides. The time-series data of surface 137Cs and (239,240)Pu suggests that surface 137Cs and (239,240)Pu concentrations in the Pacific since 1971 decrease exponentially in each sea area, although the temporal changes of surface 137Cs and (239,240)Pu differed between sea areas of the Pacific. The calculated 137Cs concentrations in the Pacific surface waters in 2000 are homogeneous in the Pacific, comparing with that in the 1960s and 1970s, although they are still high in the North Pacific and low in the South Pacific. The biogeochemical and physical processes are significant factors to control present levels of surface (239,240)Pu concentrations, which are high in the Subarctic and equatorial Pacific and low in the mid-latitude region of the eastern North Pacific.     

Numerical simulation of 137Cs and (239,240)Pu concentrations by an ocean general circulation model

We simulated the spatial distributions and the temporal variations of 137Cs and (239,240)Pu concentrations in the ocean by using the ocean general circulation model which was developed by National Center of Atmospheric Research. These nuclides are introduced into seawaters from global fallout due to atmospheric nuclear weapons tests. The distribution of radioactive deposition on the world ocean is estimated from global precipitation data and observed values of annual deposition of radionuclides at the Meteorological Research Institute in Japan and several observed points in New Zealand. Radionuclides from global fallout have been transported by advection, diffusion and scavenging, and this concentration reduces by radioactive decay in the ocean. We verified the results of the model calculations by comparing simulated values of 137Cs and (239,240)Pu in seawater with the observed values included in the Historical Artificial Radionuclides in the HAM database, which has been constructed by the Meteorological Research Institute. The vertical distributions of the calculated 137Cs concentrations were in good agreement and are in good agreement with the observed profiles in the 1960s up to 250 m, in the 1970s up to 500 m, in the 1980s up to 750 m and in the 1990s up to 750 m. However, the calculated 137Cs concentrations were underestimated compared with the observed 137Cs at the deeper layer. This may suggest other transport processes of 137Cs to deep waters. The horizontal distributions of 137Cs concentrations in surface water could be simulated. A numerical tracer release experiment was performed to explain the horizontal distribution pattern. A maximum (239,240)Pu concentration layer occurs at an intermediate depth for both observed and calculated values, which is formed by particle scavenging. The horizontal distributions of the calculated (239,240)Pu concentrations in surface water could be simulated by considering the scavenging effect.     

Temporal variation of 137Cs water column inventory in the North Pacific since the 1960s

The temporal variation of water column inventories of 137Cs in the North Pacific since the 1960s was examined based on the analysis of the 137Cs profiles in HAM database. 137Cs in seawater in the North Pacific have originated mainly from global fallout from atmospheric nuclear weapons tests, which occurred in the early 1960s. In the 1960s, both the meridional distribution of 137Cs inventory in the North Pacific and that of fallout on land stations showed mid-latitude maximum. The region with higher deposition at land stations, however, was more northern than the latitudes where the 137Cs inventory in the North Pacific showed a maximum. The difference of the latitude where maximum 137Cs deposition/inventory was observed reflects the difference of the geographical distribution of the precipitation amount in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans followed by the different warm current systems in each ocean. A good positive relation between 137Cs inventory and annual precipitation amount was discovered in the ocean stations at the middle latitude in the North Pacific. The horizontal distribution of 137Cs inventories at the middle latitudes in the North Pacific is characterized as west-high and east-low in the early 1960s, which was basically controlled by the distribution of annual precipitation amount. Eastward advection, then, modified it to be less difference in 1966-1967 after the highest deposition periods in 1963-1965. In the 1970s and 1980s, increases of the 137Cs inventory at the lower latitude of 10-20 deg. N are found. Surface and subsurface southward transports are considered as the source of this increasing 137Cs inventory.     

Influence of temperature and time on phosphorus removal in swine manure during batch aeration

This study was conducted to investigate the effects of temperature and time on the mechanisms of phosphorus removal in swine manure during aeration. Removal of soluble orthophosphates significantly increased with aeration time and temperature. Successive significant ortho-P removals were observed between days one and nine but no significant additional removals were recorded thereafter. Removals were significantly higher at temperatures of 20 and 25 degrees C than at temperatures of 5, 10, and 15 degrees C and ranged between 22.9 to 31.0%. Insoluble inorganic phosphorus also changed significantly with aeration time and temperature and with a similar trend as soluble orthophosphates. The pH of the manure explained 92 and 87% of the content of insoluble inorganic phosphorus at lower temperatures (5, 10, 15 degrees C) and at higher temperatures (20, and 25 degrees C), respectively. Organic phosphorus and aerobes growth patterns were similar to that of soluble orthophosphates removal. The rapid growth of aerobes was most probably the principal factor behind a rapid soluble ortho-P removal above 15 degrees C. The contribution of inorganic phosphates to the removal of soluble orthophosphates was approximately 61% while that due to organic P was approximately 35%. Precipitation was found to be the principal mechanism governing removal of soluble ortho-P in swine manure during aeration treatments.     

存在截渗墙情况下地下咸水恢复的优化方案

本文首先分析了咸水分布区的自然地理和水文地质条件，然后对研究区的水文地质条件进行了概化，建立了相应的地下水水量和水质的数值模型，最后通过地下水模拟软件Visual—MODFLOW3.1对存在截渗墙情况下的不同咸水恢复方案进行了数值分析。研究结果表明。单纯的抽水方案对于高浓度咸水的去除非常有效，但是低浓度咸水残留量较大；抽水——注水方案对高低浓度的去除效果都比较好；而抽水优化方案对高浓度和低浓度的咸水的去除更加经济、快速和彻底。