A statistical model for predicting PM2.5 for the western United States

ABSTRACT

A new statistical model for predicting daily ground level fine scale particulate matter (PM_2.5) concentrations at monitoring sites in the western United States was developed and tested operationally during the 2016 and 2017 wildfire seasons. The model is site-specific, using a multiple linear regression schema that relies on the previous day’s PM_2.5 value, along with fire and smoke related variables from satellite observations. Fire variables include fire radiative power (FRP) and the National Fire Danger Rating System Energy Release Component index. Smoke variables, in addition to ground monitored PM_2.5, include aerosol optical depth (AOD) and smoke plume perimeters from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Hazard Mapping System. The overall statistical model was inspired by a similar system developed for British Columbia (BC) by the BC Center for Disease Control, but it has been heavily modified and adapted to work in the United States. On average, our statistical model was able to explain 78% of the variance in daily ground level PM_2.5. A novel method for implementation of this model as an operational forecast system was also developed and was tested and used during the 2016 and 2017 wildfire seasons. This method focused on producing a continuously-updating prediction that incorporated the latest information available throughout the day, including both updated remote sensing data and real-time PM_2.5 observations. The diurnal pattern of performance of this model shows that even a few hours of data early in the morning can substantially improve model performance.

Implications: Wildfire smoke events produce significant air quality impacts across the western United States each year impacting millions. We present and evaluate a statistical model for making updating predictions of fine particulate (PM_2.5) levels during smoke events. These predictions run hourly and are being used by smoke incident specialists assigned to wildfire operations, and may be of interest to public health officials, air quality regulators, and the public. Predictions based on this model will be available on the web for the 2019 western U.S. wildfire season this summer.     

Leaching,mobility and persistence of tebufenozide in columns packed with forest litter and soil

Abstract

Leaching, downward mobility and persistence of tebufenozide was investigated under laboratory conditions in columns packed with forest litter and soil, after fortification with the analytical grade material (purity > 99.6%) and with two commercial formulations, RH‐5992 2F (aqueous flowable) and RH‐5992 ES (emulsion suspension). Two types of litter and soil were used: one type with relatively high amounts of sand and the other with high amounts of clay.

The concentrations eluted in the leachates were lower when the analytical material (dissolved in acetone) was used for fortification, than when the two formulations (diluted with water) were used. The amount leached was higher for RH‐5992 2F than for RH‐5992 ES. The type of substrate, i.e., sandy or clay type, had only marginal influence on the amounts eluted in the leachates. Downward movement of tebufenozide from the top 2‐cm layer to the untreated middle and bottom layers (3‐cm segments) was consistently lower when the analytical material was used for fortification, than when the two formulations were used. Downward movement was higher for RH‐5992 2F than for RH‐5992 ES. Persistence of tebufenozide in substrates, maintained under submerged conditions for 70 days after leaching, indicated an initial 2‐week lag period prior to the onset of degradation. Formulation‐related differences were observed in the half‐life (DT₅₀) values. When the analytical material was used for fortification, the DT₅₀ ranged from ca 54 to 59 d. However, when the formulations were used for fortification, the DT₅₀ showed a higher range, i.e., from ca 62 to 67 d for RH‐5992 2F and ca 70 to 80 d for RH‐5992 ES. Formulation ingredients appear to have caused enhanced adsorption of tebufenozide onto the substrates, thus delaying degradation.     

Effect of tracer dyes on initial deposits and persistence of bacillus thuringiensis subsp. kurstaki toxin after application of two commercial formulations onto spruce trees

Abstract

The effect of two tracer dyes [Erio Acid Red (EAR) and Acid Black 48 (AB‐48)] on initial deposits and persistence of Bacillus thuringiensis subsp. kurstaki (Btk) toxin (delta‐endotoxin) was studied after spraying two commercial formulations, Foray® 48B and Foray® 76B, over potted white spruce [Picea glauca (Moench) Voss] seedlings, at a dosage rate of 30 billion international units (BIU) per ha. Spray was applied using a spinning disc atomizer calibrated to deliver droplet sizes similar to those utilized in ultra‐low‐volume (ULV) treatments in operational insect control programs. The sprayed seedlings were left outdoors at the Sault Ste. Marie laboratory for 18 days under natural conditions of sunlight, wind and rainfall. Initial deposits and persistence of delta‐endotoxin protein in spruce foliage were determined by immunoassay [enzyme linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA)] quantification of the delta‐endotoxin. The total protein (inactive plus active) and delta‐endotoxin (active protein) concentrations in the two formulations were determined by a gravimetric procedure and by ELISA respectively.

The initial deposit levels of the toxin on foliage were not markedly affected by the addition of either of the two tracer dyes, and showed only a narrow range of 1521 to 1625 ng/g foliage (fresh weight) for Foray 48B, and 1789 to 2056 ng/g for Foray 76B. However, the persistence of the toxin was significantly influenced by the presence of the dyes. The toxin persisted in foliage only for 7 d post‐spray When the EAR dye was added to Foray 48B, compared to 10 d when no dye was added. The average half‐life (DT₅₀) of disappearance was 17.4 h for Foray 48B with EAR, and 20.9 h when no dye was present. In contrast, the situation was reversed in Foray 76B, since the duration of persistence was 10 d when EAR was added to Foray 76B, compared to 7 d when no dye was added. The average DT₅₀ was 27.9 h for Foray 76B with EAR, and 22.2 h without the dye. Persistence was the longest (14 d) when the AB‐48 dye was added to Foray 76B, and the DT₅₀ was 44.9 h.     

Biodegradation of chlorpyrifos by either single or combined cultures of some soilborne plant pathogenic fungi

Abstract

Biodegradation of chlorpyrifos was studied in liquid culture media amended with either single or combined eight different plant pathogenic fungi isolated from the continuous cropping wheat fields. The average recovery of chlorpyrifos from the liquid media was found to be 86.1%. The detection limit of chlorpyrifos by the analytical method used was 19 ppb. Data showed that the growth of mixed fungi at concentrations up to 200 ppm of chlorpyrifos was higher than in the control treatment. Chlorpyrifos concentrations declined in the medium of combined fungi more than it did in the medium of any single fungus with increase in the incubation period. The amount of chlorpyrifos recovered was 79.8 ppm (39.9%) in the combined fungal cultures after 21 days. However, those recovered from the media of Fusarium graminearum, F. oxysporum, Rhizoctonia solani, Cladosporhim cladosporiodes, Cephalosporium sp., Trichoderma viridi, Alternaria alternata, and Cladorrhinum brunnescens, ranged from 48.0 to 74.8%. The half‐life value (T_1/2) for chlorpynfos was 15.8 day in the medium amended with mixed fungi. However, for the single cultures it ranged from 19.3 to 33.0 day.     

Effects of synthetic pyrethroids and methidation on activities of some digestive enzymes in carp (Cyprinus carpio L.)

Abstract

The effects of pyrethroid pesticides (deltamethrin, permethrin and cypermethrin) and an organophosphate ester (methidation) on the activities of carp trypsin, α‐chymotrypsin, carboxypeptidase A and lipase were studied. The enzymes were isolated from the gastrointestinal tract and the effects of the pesticides were investigated during incubation for 5 min. The activity of trypsin was influenced only slightly by the presence of deltamethrin and methidation, whereas permethrin and cypermethrin caused significant inhibition. The pyrethroid pesticides at lower concentrations resulted in a slight activation of α‐chymotrypsin. Methidation inhibited the α‐chymotrypsin activity by about 20%. These pesticides modified the lipase activity to a lesser extent; the highest inhibition was measured with cypermethrin. The carboxypeptidase A activity was inhibited by both pyrethroid pesticides and methidation. The results suggest that these pesticides might interact with the active conformation of the studied hydrolytic enzymes, resulting in changes in their activities.     

A Study of Ammonia Source at a Portland Cement Production Plant

A source and process sampling study was conducted at a dry process Portland Cement production plant. The study was performed to determine the nature of the formation of a highly visable plume related to the kiln emissions. One aspect of the study focused on the source or point of NH₃ within the production process. An extensive number of process solids from raw feeds to baghouse solids were collected and analyzed for NH₄ ⁺. Samples were analyzed for NH₄ ⁺ both by washing the solids with 0.1 N H₂SO₄ and by collecting NH₃ in impingers as it was evolved from heated solids. The results showed that NH₄ ⁺ was present in many process samples and that the collection efficiency of NH₄ ⁺ in the baghouse was related to baghouse temperature. The data also showed that NH₃ was derived from the shale used in the raw feed at this cement production plant.     

A Simple Methodology for the Determination of Back Trajectories

Abstract

This study comprehensively characterizes hourly fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) concentrations measured via a tapered element oscillating microbalance (TEOM), β-gauge, and nephelometer from four different monitoring sites in U.S. Environment Protection Agency (EPA) Region 5 (in U.S. states Illinois, Michigan, and Wisconsin) and compares them to the Federal Reference Method (FRM). Hourly characterization uses time series and autocorrelation. Hourly data are compared with FRM by averaging across 24-hr sampling periods and modeling against respective daily FRM concentrations. Modeling uses traditional two-variable linear least-squares regression as well as innovative nonlinear regression involving additional meteorological variables such as temperature and humidity. The TEOM shows a relationship with season and temperature, linear correlation as low as 0.7924 and nonlinear model correlation as high as 0.9370 when modeled with temperature. The β-gauge shows no relationship with season or meteorological variables. It exhibits a linear correlation as low as 0.8505 with the FRM and a nonlinear model correlation as high as 0.9339 when modeled with humidity. The nephelometer shows no relationship with season or temperature but a strong relationship with humidity is observed. A linear correlation as low as 0.3050 and a nonlinear model correlation as high as 0.9508 is observed when modeled with humidity. Nonlinear models have higher correlation than linear models applied to the same dataset. This correlation difference is not always substantial, which may introduce a tradeoff between simplicity of model and degree of statistical association. This project shows that continuous monitor technology produces valid PM_2.5 characterization, with at least partial accounting for variations in concentration from gravimetric reference monitors once appropriate nonlinear adjustments are applied. Although only one regression technically meets new EPA National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) Federal Equivalent Method (FEM) correlation coefficient criteria, several others are extremely close, showing optimistic potential for use of this nonlinear adjustment model in garnering EPA NAAQS FEM approval for continuous PM_2.5 sampling methods.     

Low NOx,High Efficiency Multistaged Burner: Fuel Oil Results

A multistaged combustion burner designed for in-furnace NO_x control and high combustion efficiency is being evaluated for high nitrogen content fuel and waste incineration application in a 0.6 MW package boiler simulator. A low NO_x precombustion chamber burner has been reduced in size by approximately a factor of two (from 600 to 250 ms first-stage residence time) and coupled with (1) air staging, resulting in a three-stage configuration, and (2) natural gas fuel staging, yielding up to four stolchlometric zones. Natural gas, doped with ammonia to yield a 5.8 percent fuel nitrogen content, and distillate fuel oil, doped with pyridine to yield a 2 percent fuel nitrogen content, were used to simulate high nitrogen content fuel/waste mixtures. The multistaged burner reduced NO emissions by 85 percent from emission levels from a conventional unstaged burner mounted on a commercial package bollerTA minimum NO emission level of 110 ppm was achieved in the fuel oil tests, from a level of 765 ppm for conventional firing. This is compared with a 160 ppm minimum NO level achieved in gaseous fuel tests, from an uncontrolled level of 1000 ppm. Boiler fuel staging, or reburnlng, appears to be superior to air staging for high combustion efficiency due to its minimal fuel-rich core and second flame front in the boiler.     

Effect of ozonization in degradation of trifluralin residues in aqueous and food matrices

Abstract

This study investigates the oxidation of trifluralin residues during ozonation in aqueous and food matrices (tomato). Domestic ozonation equipment with average production of 23.9?mg O₃ L^?1 h^?1 was used in the tests. Modern chromatographic systems (SPME-GC-IT/MS/MS and QuEChERS-GC-IT/MS/MS) were applied for extraction and detection of trifluralin residue in fortified samples of ultrapure water, tap water, superficial water and tomato fruit. The samples were submitted to the ozonation process during 0, 5, 10 and 20?min. Treatment at 5?min was able to degrade 71.5% of herbicide trifluralin in surface water. The removal (%) in ultrapure water reached 83.4% after 20?min of ozonation. The degradation of trifluralin in fortified tomato samples (0.025–0.1?mg kg^?1) were conducted with ozonation at 20?min, and it ranged from 84.4 to 92.7%. After treatment, levels of trifluralin in tomato remained within the established MRLs to EU, USEPA and ANVISA (Brazil). The data provided evidence that ozone is effective for removing trace trifluralin from water and foods.