Using a Bayesian network to clarify areas requiring research in a host–pathogen system

Bayesian network analyses can be used to interactively change the strength of effect of variables in a model to explore complex relationships in new ways. In doing so, they allow one to identify influential nodes that are not well studied empirically so that future research can be prioritized. We identified relationships in host and pathogen biology to examine disease‐driven declines of amphibians associated with amphibian chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis). We constructed a Bayesian network consisting of behavioral, genetic, physiological, and environmental variables that influence disease and used them to predict host population trends. We varied the impacts of specific variables in the model to reveal factors with the most influence on host population trend. The behavior of the nodes (the way in which the variables probabilistically responded to changes in states of the parents, which are the nodes or variables that directly influenced them in the graphical model) was consistent with published results. The frog population had a 49% probability of decline when all states were set at their original values, and this probability increased when body temperatures were cold, the immune system was not suppressing infection, and the ambient environment was conducive to growth of B. dendrobatidis. These findings suggest the construction of our model reflected the complex relationships characteristic of host–pathogen interactions. Changes to climatic variables alone did not strongly influence the probability of population decline, which suggests that climate interacts with other factors such as the capacity of the frog immune system to suppress disease. Changes to the adaptive immune system and disease reservoirs had a large effect on the population trend, but there was little empirical information available for model construction. Our model inputs can be used as a base to examine other systems, and our results show that such analyses are useful tools for reviewing existing literature, identifying links poorly supported by evidence, and understanding complexities in emerging infectious‐disease systems.     

Comparing canopy leaf temperature of three Central European tree species based on simultaneous confidence bands for penalized splines

Temperature is an important physical factor that is known to strongly affect biodiversity as well as ecosystems and their functioning. However, research in this area is still relatively limited; this may also be attributed to the multitude of influencing factors and the complexity of the statistics involved. This study analyzes the differences between the surface temperature of three Central European broadleaf tree species. A better understanding of these differences may help to elucidate the role of microclimate in biodiversity. We consider a time series of high-resolution thermal images taken from a meteorological observation tower and calculate mean canopy leaf temperatures for beech, ash and maple (Fagus silvatica, Fraxinus excelsior and Acer pseudoplatanus). In a first step, comparable image areas are extracted from the thermal image sections of the crown of each tree species avoiding shadow areas, branches, etc. We used an automatic segmentation technique, the Otsu thresholding. Extracted canopy leaf temperature values were then processed and the resulting temperature profiles estimated by O’Sullivan penalized splines. For comparing the differences in canopy leaf temperature over time, we propose the construction of simultaneous confidence bands. The analyses show that there are significant—though small—differences in canopy surface temperature between the three tree species.     

Microbial mediated arsenic biotransformation in wetlands

Arsenic (As) is a pervasive environmental toxin and carcinogenic metalloid. It ranks at the top of the US priority List of Hazardous Substances and causes worldwide human health problems. Wetlands, including natural and artificial ecosystems (i.e. paddy soils) are highly susceptible to As enrichment; acting not only as repositories for water but a host of other elemental/chemical moieties. While macroscale processes (physical and geological) supply As to wetlands, it is the micro-scale biogeochemistry that regulates the fluxes of As and other trace elements from the semi-terrestrial to neighboring plant/aquatic/atmospheric compartments. Among these fine-scale events, microbial mediated As biotransformations contribute most to the element’s changing forms, acting as the ‘switch’ in defining a wetland as either a source or sink of As. Much of our understanding of these important microbial catalyzed reactions follows relatively recent scientific discoveries. Here we document some of these key advances, with focuses on the implications that wetlands and their microbial mediated transformation pathways have on the global As cycle, the chemistries of microbial mediated As oxidation, reduction and methylation, and future research priorities areas.

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2D brine sewage after impinging on a shallow sea free surface

We consider the problem of the vertically upwards disposal of heavy brine sewage from a two-dimensional diffuser in a lighter, homogeneous, motionless and shallow ambient sea. The rejected high salinity water of seawater desalination plants for urban and agricultural uses is such a case of a two dimensional fountain. The disposal of brine sewage produces a negative buoyant jet due to its initial momentum, which impinges on the free surface, spreads laterally on it and then sinks downwards, because of the negative buoyancy. Laboratory experiments and dimensional considerations are used in this paper in order to investigate the spreading behavior (width) of the vertical fountain which impinges on the free surface of the shallow ambient fluid. The experimental results have been used to derive an equation relating the width at the free surface with the initial parameters of the flow. In addition, the experimentally measured dilution of the heavier brine sewage on the recipient’s surface is compared with the dilution which was calculated by a numerical simulation of a well-known commercial software package, CORJET (a CORMIX sub model).     

Evaluation of existing equations for temporal scour depth around circular bridge piers

Scour is defined as the processes of removal of sediment particles from water stream bed by the erosive action of activated water, and also carries sediment away from the hydraulic structures. Scour is the main cause of pier failure. Numerous equations are available for estimating temporal and equilibrium scour depth. The present study describes the phenomenon of temporal scour depth variation at bridge piers and deals with the methods for its estimation. The accuracy of six temporal scour depth equations are also checked in this study. After graphical and statistical analysis, it was found that the relationship proposed by Oliveto and Hager (J Hydraul Eng (ASCE) 128(9):811–520, 2002) predicts temporal scour depth better than other equations. Three equations of equilibrium time of scour are also used for computing equilibrium time. Equilibrium time equation proposed by Choi and Choi (Water Environ J 30(1–2):14–21, 2016) gives better agreements with observed values.     

不同来源腐殖酸的光解及过氧化氢对其影响

为探讨腐殖酸在环境中的行为及光解除去腐殖酸的可能性，利用大于２９０ｎｍ的模拟日光辐照，探讨了大骨节病病区、非病区腐殖酸和泥炭腐殖酸的光解过程和光解机理及过氧化氢对其光解的影响，发现随着光照时间的延长，腐殖酸水体系的总有机碳（ＴＯＣ）含量降低，ｐＨ值下降，过氧化氢可以促进腐殖酸的光解，其光解过程遵循一级动力学规律。计算了不同来源腐殖酸光解的速率及光解半衰期，发现土壤和泥炭腐殖酸比大骨节病病区饮水中腐     

用人工湿地处理乳制品厂废水的研究

在进水ＣＯＤ浓度４００ｍｇ／Ｌ－８００ｍｇ／Ｌ,温度１５℃－２３℃时,人工湿地装置处理乳制品加工废水的ＣＯＤ去除率达９７％－９８％,面积负荷率达２３．３ｇ／（ｍ＾２．ｄ）－２８．２ｇ（ｍ＾２．ｄ）,ＢＯＤ５的去除率达９７％－９９％,ＢＯＤ５的面积负荷率为１２．６ｇ（ｍ＾２．ｄ）－１７．２ｇ（ｍ＾２．ｄ）,几乎７０％－９０％ＣＯＤ和ＢＯＤ５去除率发生在进水沟段。     

Ecoprofit-Styria-prepare Thirteen pollution prevention case studies in the Styrian industry

The paper focuses upon the organization of a federal state-funded pollution prevention project in the Styrian industry. The project includes 13 companies from the textile, pulp and paper, machine building, wood working and printed circuit board manufacturing industries, covering most of the sectors and sizes in the Styrian industry. It started in January 1994 and will last for one year. It will demonstrate the possibilities of pollution prevention and the need for further research work. This project will make use of the methods and tools that were refined in the Austrian Prepare project. As a first step, a systematic balance of all the inputs and outputs of a company is made, after which the weak points and inefficiencies of material and energy use are identified and the options for improvements, both economical and ecological, are defined. Consequently, modifications in products and production lead to a situation with less waste and emissions. The preliminary lessons from these projects are presented: as a rule, the utilities (consumption of process materials and water, cleaning, energy, preparatory and finishing steps) are treated as black boxes and usually represent a considerable optimization potential. In these areas especially there is usually a lack of information and coordination as well as a need for a systematic and comprehensive approach. Leadership in the company and creative consultants are needed for starting lasting successful pollution prevention projects.