Extremes of Temperature, Oxygen and Blooms in the Baltic Sea in a Changing Climate

In the future, the Baltic Sea ecosystem will be impacted both by climate change and by riverine and atmospheric nutrient inputs. Multi-model ensemble simulations comprising one IPCC scenario (A1B), two global climate models, two regional climate models, and three Baltic Sea ecosystem models were performed to elucidate the combined effect of climate change and changes in nutrient inputs. This study focuses on the occurrence of extreme events in the projected future climate. Results suggest that the number of days favoring cyanobacteria blooms could increase, anoxic events may become more frequent and last longer, and salinity may tend to decrease. Nutrient load reductions following the Baltic Sea Action Plan can reduce the deterioration of oxygen conditions.     

Phytotoxicity of low-weight carboxylic acids

Presence of low-weight carboxylic acids (LWCAs) can be the reason for phytotoxicity of green manures, treated bio-waste or digestates from biogas production applied to soils. As the phytotoxic concentrations of LWCA are poorly known, this work presents data on six acids (C(1)C(6): formic, acetic, propionic, butyric, valeric, and caproic). Phytotoxicity was measured in acute (72 or 120 h) and subchronic (21 d) assays for seed germination, seedling elongation, and plant growth for garden cress Lepidium sativum and ryegrass Lolium multiflorum. The dose-response relationship was modeled using Weibull model. Results showed a trend that toxicity of LWCA increases with the length of the carbon chain, formic acid (C(1)) being the least and caproic acid (C(6)) the most toxic. EC50 values in the acute seed germination of cress ranged between 1.9 and 4.2mM and for ryegrass between 1.8 and 6.4mM. In subchronic assays EC50 values for germination were in a range from 11 to 46mMkg(-1)dm for cress, and from 18 to 127 mM kg(-1) dm for ryegrass. EC50 values for early seedling growth of cress based on acute assays ranged from 0.7 to 2.3mM and that of ryegrass from 1.2 to 1.8mM. Range of EC50 values for shoot biomass of cress was between 8 and 40 mM kg(-1) dm and of ryegrass between 12 and 93 mM kg(-1) dm.     

Projected future climate change and Baltic Sea ecosystem management

Climate change is likely to have large effects on the Baltic Sea ecosystem. Simulations indicate 2–4 °C warming and 50–80 % decrease in ice cover by 2100. Precipitation may increase ~30 % in the north, causing increased land runoff of allochthonous organic matter (AOM) and organic pollutants and decreased salinity. Coupled physical–biogeochemical models indicate that, in the south, bottom-water anoxia may spread, reducing cod recruitment and increasing sediment phosphorus release, thus promoting cyanobacterial blooms. In the north, heterotrophic bacteria will be favored by AOM, while phytoplankton production may be reduced. Extra trophic levels in the food web may increase energy losses and consequently reduce fish production. Future management of the Baltic Sea must consider the effects of climate change on the ecosystem dynamics and functions, as well as the effects of anthropogenic nutrient and pollutant load. Monitoring should have a holistic approach, encompassing both autotrophic (phytoplankton) and heterotrophic (e.g., bacterial) processes.     

Development of Tools for Integrated Monitoring and Assessment of Hazardous Substances and Their Biological Effects in the Baltic Sea

The need to develop biological effects monitoring to facilitate a reliable assessment of hazardous substances has been emphasized in the Baltic Sea Action Plan of the Helsinki Commission. An integrated chemical–biological approach is vitally important for the understanding and proper assessment of anthropogenic pressures and their effects on the Baltic Sea. Such an approach is also necessary for prudent management aiming at safeguarding the sustainable use of ecosystem goods and Services. The BEAST project (Biological Effects of Anthropogenic Chemical Stress: Tools for the Assessment of Ecosystem Health) set out to address this topic within the BONUS Programme. BEAST generated a large amount of quality-assured data on several biological effects parameters (biomarkers) in various marine species in different sub-regions of the Baltic Sea. New indicators (biological response measurement methods) and management tools (integrated indices) with regard to the integrated monitoring approach were suggested.     

Crash risk of ESC-fitted passenger cars

Objective: We examined both fatal and injury at-fault crashes of a population of passenger cars fitted with electronic stability control (ESC). Crash rates were calculated in relation to both registration years and mileage. Crash rates were also calculated for a non-ESC car population and crash rate ratios were calculated to compare the crash risk between ESC-fitted and non-ESC-fitted passenger cars.

Methods: Passenger car models with and without ESC were identified (ESC-equipped cars: 3,352,813 registration years; non-ESC-equipped: 5,839,946 registration years) and their vehicle information for the period 2009–2013, including mileage (ESC-equipped vehicles: 89.3 billion kilometers; non-ESC-equipped: 72.4 billion kilometers), was drawn from the national Vehicular and Driver Data Register.

The registry of Finnish road accident investigation teams was accessed and all fatal at-fault crashes among the cars in the study populations (ESC 97; non-ESC 377) for the period 2009–2013 were analyzed. The motor insurance database includes at-fault crashes leading to injuries and was utilized for analyses (ESC: N?=?8,827, non-ESC: N?=?21,437).

Crash rates and crash rate ratios were calculated to evaluate crash risk of both ESC-equipped and non-ESC-equipped passenger cars. Poisson regression was used to model crash involvement rate ratios both per registration year and per mileage for vehicles with ESC and without ESC, controlling for age and gender of the vehicle owner and vehicle mass.

Results: Passenger cars fitted with ESC showed lower crash rates than non-ESC-equipped cars in all crash types studied. In general, the difference in crash rates between ESC-equipped and non-ESC-equipped vehicles was greater when the crashes were compared to the mileage rather than registration years. The mileage-proportional crash rate of ESC-equipped cars was 64% (95% confidence interval, 61%; 67%) lower in run-off-road crashes resulting in injury and as much as 82% (65%; 91%) lower in fatal run-off-road crashes when suicides and disease attacks were not taken into account.

Conclusions: Our results show that modern passenger cars provide a significant crash risk reduction, which depends on both ESC and passive safety features introduced. Results also show that exposure evaluation in terms of registration years (or vehicle population) instead of true mileage can provide an overly pessimistic view of the crash risk.     

Comprehensive two-dimensional gas chromatography, a valuable technique for screening and semiquantitation of different chemical compounds in ultrafine 30 nm and 50 nm aerosol particles

Comprehensive two dimensional gas chromatography-time-of-flight mass spectrometry (GC×GC-TOF-MS) was used for screening and semiquantitation of semivolatile organic compounds in aerosol particles. As the volatility was a prerequisite parameter for the analysis, some compounds were transformed via derivatization such as silylation into more volatile ones. The identification of the analytes was made by comparing the GC retention indices and the TOF mass spectra with the NIST and the Golm metabolome database reference libraries. The data treatment was simplified by exploiting an additional classification of the identified compounds, namely the main functional group or specific element present in the molecule leading to different groups of compounds. This methodology was applied to identify compounds in 30 ± 4 nm, 50 ± 5 nm and total suspended particles (TSP) collected during spring and autumn of 2009 and summer of 2010 at the Station for Measuring Forest Ecosystem Atmosphere Relations (SMEAR II) at Hyyti?l? (Finland). The number of identified compounds was higher than 400, which were the most relevant compounds present in the samples, in terms of concentrations. The analysis of aerosol particles of different sizes, collected simultaneously, revealed that the number of compounds increased with the particle size whereas the normalized response factor decreased in most of the cases, aldehydes being an exception. This decrease could be associated with the formation or aggregation of new compounds onto the particles when they grow in the atmosphere.     

Biodiversity, distributions and adaptations of Arctic species in the context of environmental change

The individual of a species is the basic unit which responds to climate and UV-B changes, and it responds over a wide range of time scales. The diversity of animal, plant and microbial species appears to be low in the Arctic, and decreases from the boreal forests to the polar deserts of the extreme North but primitive species are particularly abundant. This latitudinal decline is associated with an increase in super-dominant species that occupy a wide range of habitats. Climate warming is expected to reduce the abundance and restrict the ranges of such species and to affect species at their northern range boundaries more than in the South: some Arctic animal and plant specialists could face extinction. Species most likely to expand into tundra are boreal species that currently exist as outlier populations in the Arctic. Many plant species have characteristics that allow them to survive short snow-free growing seasons, low solar angles, permafrost and low soil temperatures, low nutrient availability and physical disturbance. Many of these characteristics are likely to limit species' responses to climate warming, but mainly because of poor competitive ability compared with potential immigrant species. Terrestrial Arctic animals possess many adaptations that enable them to persist under a wide range of temperatures in the Arctic. Many escape unfavorable weather and resource shortage by winter dormancy or by migration. The biotic environment of Arctic animal species is relatively simple with few enemies, competitors, diseases, parasites and available food resources. Terrestrial Arctic animals are likely to be most vulnerable to warmer and drier summers, climatic changes that interfere with migration routes and staging areas, altered snow conditions and freeze-thaw cycles in winter, climate-induced disruption of the seasonal timing of reproduction and development, and influx of new competitors, predators, parasites and diseases. Arctic microorganisms are also well adapted to the Arctic's climate: some can metabolize at temperatures down to -39 degrees C. Cyanobacteria and algae have a wide range of adaptive strategies that allow them to avoid, or at least minimize UV injury. Microorganisms can tolerate most environmental conditions and they have short generation times which can facilitate rapid adaptation to new environments. In contrast, Arctic plant and animal species are very likely to change their distributions rather than evolve significantly in response to warming.     

Urbanisation Without Development: Environmental and Health Implications in African Cities

Sustainable development advocates for a balance between socio-economic development and the environment in the pursuit of human advancement. In Africa, high population growth and inadequate infrastructure in urban areas exert pressure on the environment and this threatens the health and wellbeing of urban residents. The population of the African continent until the 1960s was predominantly rural. This scenario has taken a swift turn and some of the major shifts in the global urbanisation process are taking place on the continent. Factors including natural increase in the population, rural–urban migration, strife and hunger leading to the internal displacement of populations have exacerbated the urbanisation process in Africa. The situation has been worsened by the imposition of Western development policies, including structural adjustment programmes on African nations, which has eroded the subsistence base of rural agricultural communities and further ignited rural urban migration. The failure of industry to absorb the increasing labour force has created massive unemployment and deepening poverty crisis in urban centres. Inadequate provision of infrastructure and services to meet the growth in urban populations has resulted in inefficient spatial development of urban centres, the proliferation of squatter settlements, inadequate basic amenities including potable water, sanitation and waste disposal. Poor environmental sanitation has resulted in the upsurge of infectious diseases and deteriorating urban health. Urban populations in Africa are also the worst affected by newly emerging diseases, particularly HIV/AIDS. The poor bear a disproportionately large share of the problems due to their particular vulnerability to environmental and health risks. Readers should send their comments on this paper to: BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue.     

Comparison of ozone temporal scales for large urban, small urban, and rural areas in Georgia

Ground-level ozone (O3) time series are characterized by the sum of several distinct temporal scales: long-term, seasonal, synoptic, diurnal (daily), and intraday variation. In this study, the authors use a Kolmorogov-Zurbenko filter to separate the 1981-2001 O3 time-series from many sites in and around Georgia into these various components. The authors compare the temporal components to examine differences between small and large metropolitan areas and between urban and rural areas. They then focus on the synoptic component to define a predominant transport region or airshed for each site.