Statistical downscaling for climate change projections in the Mediterranean region: methods and results

Besides dynamical downscaling by regional climate models, statistical downscaling (SD) is a major tool to derive climate change projections on regional or even local scales. For the Mediterranean area, an increasing number of downscaling studies based on different statistical techniques have been published in the last two decades with a broad range of sometimes differing results relating to different variables and regional domains. This paper gives a short review of these Mediterranean downscaling studies mainly considering the following two aspects: (1) what kind of progress has been realized in this field since the early 1990s? The review addresses the inclusion of extremes in downscaling assessments, the development of probabilistic approaches, the extension of predictor sets, the use of ensembles for both dynamical model simulations and statistical model assessments, the consideration of non-stationarities in the predictor–predictand relationships, and some advances related to synoptic downscaling. (2) What are the main regional climate change signals in the Mediterranean area, considering agreed and controversial points also with respect to dynamical models? Best accordance among future projections can be found in seasonal temperatures with lower rates of warming in winter and spring, and, in most cases, higher ones in summer and autumn. Different results are obtained for the intra-annual range of extreme temperatures, but high-temperature conditions are generally expected to increase. Regarding seasonal precipitation, predominant reductions are indicated for spring, summer, and autumn. For winter, however, projections are distinctly different (GCMs: rainfall decrease; RCMs: increase only in the northernmost parts of the Mediterranean region; SD: widespread increases in the northern and western parts in several studies). Different results are obtained for rainfall extremes, but the entire precipitation distribution tends to shift towards higher and lower values. Apart from some sub-regional deviations, there is a predominant increase in future dry period durations. For near-surface winds, only a few studies are available, and they project some decline mainly for the winter season.     

Radionuclide Transport and Uptake in Coastal Aquatic Ecosystems: A Comparison of a 3D Dynamic Model and a Compartment Model

In safety assessments of underground radioactive waste repositories, understanding radionuclide fate in ecosystems is necessary to determine the impacts of potential releases. Here, the reliability of two mechanistic models (the compartmental K-model and the 3D dynamic D-model) in describing the fate of radionuclides released into a Baltic Sea bay is tested. Both are based on ecosystem models that simulate the cycling of organic matter (carbon). Radionuclide transfer is linked to adsorption and flows of carbon in food chains. Accumulation of Th-230, Cs-135, and Ni-59 in biological compartments was comparable between the models and site measurements despite differences in temporal resolution, biological state variables, and partition coefficients. Both models provided confidence limits for their modeled concentration ratios, an improvement over models that only estimate means. The D-model enables estimates at high spatio-temporal resolution. The K-model, being coarser but faster, allows estimates centuries ahead. Future developments could integrate the two models to take advantage of their respective strengths.     

Assessment of the Netherlands’ Flood Risk Management Policy Under Global Change

Climate change and sea level rise urge low-lying countries to draft adaption policies. In this context, we assessed whether, to what extent and when the Netherlands’ current flood risk management policy may require a revision. By applying scenarios on climate change and socio-economic development and performing flood simulations, we established the past and future changes in flood probabilities, exposure and consequences until about 2050. We also questioned whether the present policy may be extended much longer, applying the concept of ‘policy tipping points’. Climate change was found to cause a significant increase of flood risk, but less than economic development does. We also established that the current flood risk management policy in the Netherlands can be continued for centuries when the sea level rise rate does not exceed 1.5 m per century. However, we also conclude that the present policy may not be the most attractive strategy, as it has some obvious flaws.     

A Multivariate Baltic Sea Environmental Index

Since 2001/2002, the correlation between North Atlantic Oscillation index and biological variables in the North Sea and Baltic Sea fails, which might be addressed to a global climate regime shift. To understand inter-annual and inter-decadal variability in environmental variables, a new multivariate index for the Baltic Sea is developed and presented here. The multivariate Baltic Sea Environmental (BSE) index is defined as the 1st principal component score of four z-transformed time series: the Arctic Oscillation index, the salinity between 120 and 200 m in the Gotland Sea, the integrated river runoff of all rivers draining into the Baltic Sea, and the relative vorticity of geostrophic wind over the Baltic Sea area. A statistical downscaling technique has been applied to project different climate indices to the sea surface temperature in the Gotland, to the Landsort gauge, and the sea ice extent. The new BSE index shows a better performance than all other climate indices and is equivalent to the Chen index for physical properties. An application of the new index to zooplankton time series from the central Baltic Sea (Latvian EEZ) shows an excellent skill in potential predictability of environmental time series.     

Design, engineering, and construction of photosynthetic microbial cell factories for renewable solar fuel production

There is an urgent need to develop sustainable solutions to convert solar energy into energy carriers used in the society. In addition to solar cells generating electricity, there are several options to generate solar fuels. This paper outlines and discusses the design and engineering of photosynthetic microbial systems for the generation of renewable solar fuels, with a focus on cyanobacteria. Cyanobacteria are prokaryotic microorganisms with the same type of photosynthesis as higher plants. Native and engineered cyanobacteria have been used by us and others as model systems to examine, demonstrate, and develop photobiological H(2) production. More recently, the production of carbon-containing solar fuels like ethanol, butanol, and isoprene have been demonstrated. We are using a synthetic biology approach to develop efficient photosynthetic microbial cell factories for direct generation of biofuels from solar energy. Present progress and advances in the design, engineering, and construction of such cyanobacterial cells for the generation of a portfolio of solar fuels, e.g., hydrogen, alcohols, and isoprene, are presented and discussed. Possibilities and challenges when introducing and using synthetic biology are highlighted.     

Assays of PCB congeners and organochlorine insecticides with the transgenic Arabidopsis and tobacco plants carrying recombinant guinea pig AhR and GUS reporter genes

Certain congeners of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and organochlorine insecticides are ligands of aryl hydrocarbon receptors (AhRs) in animals. A recombinant guinea pig (g) AhR, XgDV, was constructed by fusing the ligand-binding domain of gAhR, the DNA-binding domain of LexA, and the transactivating domain of VP16. Then, the expression unit of β-glucuronidase (GUS) reporter gene regulated by XgDV was introduced into Arabidopsis and tobacco plants. When the transgenic Arabidopsis XgDV plants were cultured on Murashige-Skoog (MS) medium containing PCB congeners, the GUS activity in the plants increased toxic equivalent (TEQ)-dependently. The GUS activity in the transgenic Arabidopsis XgDV plants cultured on MS medium containing the organochlorine insecticide dieldrin was also induced. On the other hand, in the case of DDT, the GUS activity induced by 3-methylcholanthere in the plants decreased. The transgenic Arabidopsis XgDV plants detected 1000 ng g(-1) PCB126 in 1 g of soils. Thus the XgDV plants seemed to be useful for convenient assays of PCB congeners and organochlorine insecticides, without any extraction and purification steps.     

Conceptual frameworks and key questions for assessing the contribution of marine protected areas to shark and ray conservation

Marine protected areas (MPAs) are key tools in addressing the global decline of sharks and rays, and marine parks and shark sanctuaries of various configurations have been established to conserve shark populations. However, assessments of their efficacy are compromised by inconsistent terminology, lack of standardized approaches to assess how MPAs contribute to shark and ray conservation, and ambiguity about how to integrate movement data in assessment processes. We devised a conceptual framework to standardize key terms (e.g., protection, contribution, potential impact, risk, threat) and used the concept of portfolio risk to identify key attributes of sharks and rays (assets), the threats they face (portfolio risk), and the specific role of MPAs in risk mitigation (insurance). Movement data can be integrated into the process by informing risk exposure and mitigation through MPAs. The framework is operationalized by posing 8 key questions that prompt practitioners to consider the assessment scope, MPA type and purpose, range of existing and potential threats, species biology and ecology, and management and operational contexts. Ultimately, MPA contributions to shark and ray conservation differ according to a complex set of human and natural factors and interactions that should be carefully considered in MPA design, implementation, and evaluation.     

Impact of proposed changes in IESTI equations for short-term dietary exposure to pesticides from Australian and Codex perspective

ABSTRACT

In 2015 a scientific workshop was held in Geneva, where updating the four equations for estimating the short-term dietary exposure (International Estimated Short Term Intake, IESTI) to pesticides was suggested. The impact of these proposed changes on the exposure was studied by using residue data and large portion consumption data from Codex and Australia. For the Codex data, the exposure increased by a median factor of 2.5 per commodity when changing to the proposed IESTI equations. The increase in exposure was highest for bulked and blended food commodities (case 3 equations), followed by medium-sized food commodities (case 2a equations) and small- and large-sized food commodities (case 1 and case 2b equations). For the Australian data, out of 184 maximum residue limit (MRL) large portion combinations showing acute exposures below the acute reference dose (ARfD) with the current IESTI equations, 23 exceeded the ARfD with the proposed IESTI equations (12%). The percentage exceeding the ARfD was higher for the Australian MRL large portion combinations (12% of 184) than for those of Codex (1.3% of 8,366). However, the percentage MRL loss in the Australian dataset may not be representative of all pesticide MRLs since it concerns six pesticides only, specifically selected to elucidate the potential effects of the use of the proposed IESTI equations. For the Codex data, the increase in exposure using the proposed equations resulted in a small increased loss of 2.6% of the 1,110 MRLs estimated by the Joint FAO/WHO Meeting on Pesticide Residues (JMPR): 1.4% of the MRLs were already not acceptable with the current equations, 4.0% of the MRLs were not acceptable with the newly proposed equations. Our study revealed that case 3 commodities may be impacted more by the proposed changes than other commodities. This substantiates one of the conclusions of the Geneva workshop to gather information on bulking and blending practices in order to refine MRL setting and dietary risk assessment for case 3 commodities where possible.     

The suitability of Macadamia and Juglans for cultivation in Nepal: an assessment based on spatial probability modelling using climate scenarios and in situ data

Regional Environmental Change - Global climate models predict temperature rises and changes in precipitation regimes that will shift regional climate zones and influence the viability of...     

Element contents and food safety of water spinach (Ipomoea aquatica Forssk.) cultivated with wastewater in Hanoi, Vietnam

Extensive aquatic or semi-aquatic production of water spinach (Ipomoea aquatica Forssk.) for human consumption takes place in Southeast Asia. The aim of this study was to assess the concentrations of 38 elements in soil and water spinach cultivated under different degrees of wastewater exposure in Hanoi, Vietnam. The results showed no effect of wastewater use on the overall element concentrations in soil and water spinach. Mean soil concentrations for selected potentially toxic elements at the studied field sites had the following ranges 9.11–18.7 As, 0.333–0.667 Cd, 10.8–14.5 Co, 68–122 Cr, 34.0–62.1 Cu, 29.9–52.8 Ni, 32.5–67.4 Pb, 0.578–0.765 Tl and 99–189 Zn mg kg⁻¹ dry weight (d.w.). In all samples Cd, Pb and Zn soil concentrations were below the Vietnamese Guideline Values (TCVN 7209-2002) for agricultural soils whereas As and Cu exceeded the guideline values. Maximum site element concentrations in water spinach were 0.139 As, 0.032 Cd, 0.135 Cr, 2.01 Cu, 39.1 Fe, 57.3 Mn, 0.16 Ni, 0.189 Pb and 6.01 Zn mg kg⁻¹ fresh weight (f.w.). The site and soil content of organic carbon were found to have high influence on the water spinach element concentrations whereas soil pH and the total soil element concentrations were of less importance. The estimated average daily intake of As, Cd, Cu, Fe, Pb and Zn for adult Vietnamese consumers amounts to <11% of the maximum tolerable intake proposed by FAO/WHO for each element. It is assessed that the occurrence of the investigated elements in water spinach will pose low health risk for the consumers.