Simulating Land-Cover Change in Montane Mainland Southeast Asia

We used the conversion of land use and its effects (CLUE-s) model to simulate scenarios of land-cover change in Montane mainland southeast Asia (MMSEA), a region in the midst of transformation due to rapid intensification of agriculture and expansion of regional trade markets. Simulated changes affected approximately 10 % of the MMSEA landscape between 2001 and 2025 and 16 % between 2001 and 2050. Roughly 9 % of the current vegetation, which consists of native species of trees, shrubs, and grasses, is projected to be replaced by tree plantations, tea, and other evergreen shrubs during the 50 years period. Importantly, 4 % of this transition is expected to be due to the expansion of rubber (Hevea brasiliensis), a tree plantation crop that may have important implications for local-to-regional scale hydrology because of its potentially high water consumption in the dry season.     

Strontium isotope study of coal utilization by-products interacting with environmental waters

Sequential leaching experiments on coal utilization by-products (CUB) were coupled with chemical and strontium (Sr) isotopic analyses to better understand the influence of coal type and combustion processes on CUB properties and the release of elements during interaction with environmental waters during disposal. Class C fly ash tended to release the highest quantity of minor and trace elements-including alkaline earth elements, sodium, chromium, copper, manganese, lead, titanium, and zinc-during sequential extraction, with bottom ash yielding the lowest. Strontium isotope ratios ((87)Sr/(86)Sr) in bulk-CUB samples (total dissolution of CUB) are generally higher in class F ash than in class C ash. Bulk-CUB ratios appear to be controlled by the geologic source of the mineral matter in the feed coal, and by Sr added during desulfurization treatments. Leachates of the CUB generally have Sr isotope ratios that are different than the bulk value, demonstrating that Sr was not isotopically homogenized during combustion. Variations in the Sr isotopic composition of CUB leachates were correlated with mobility of several major and trace elements; the data suggest that arsenic and lead are held in phases that contain the more radiogenic (high-(87)Sr/(86)Sr) component. A changing Sr isotope ratio of CUB-interacting waters in a disposal environment could forecast the release of certain strongly bound elements of environmental concern. This study lays the groundwork for the application of Sr isotopes as an environmental tracer for CUB-water interaction.     

Effects of riparian forest buffers on in-stream nutrient retention in agricultural catchments

In northeastern Austria, marshlands have been turned into the most productive arable land of the country. As a result, most headwater streams show structurally degraded channels, lacking riparian buffer zones, which are heavily loaded with nutrients from the surrounding crop fields. The present study examines whether longitudinally restricted riparian forest buffers can enhance the in-stream nutrient retention in nutrient-enriched headwater streams. We estimated nutrient uptake from pairwise, short-term addition experiments with NH, NH, PO, and NaCl within reaches with riparian forest buffers (RFB) and degraded reaches (DEG) of the same streams. Riparian forest buffers originated from the conservation of the pristine vegetation or from restoration measures. Hydrologic retention was calculated with the model OTIS-P on the basis of conductivity break-through curves from the salt injections. A significant increase in surface transient storage was revealed in pristine and restored RFB reaches compared with DEG reaches due to the longitudinal step-pool pattern and the frequent occurrence of woody debris on the channel bed. Ammonium uptake lengths were significantly shorter in RFB reaches than in DEG reaches, resulting from the higher hydrologic retention. Uptake velocities did not differ significantly between RFB and DEG reaches, indicating that riparian forest buffers did not affect the biochemical nutrient demand. Uptake of NH was mainly driven by autotrophs. Net PO uptake was not affected by riparian forest buffers. The study shows that the physical and biogeochemical effects of riparian forest buffers on the in-stream nutrient retention are limited in the case of highly eutrophic streams.     

Sustainable Engineering Science for Resolving Wicked Problems

Because wicked problems are beyond the scope of normal, industrial-age engineering science, sustainability problems will require reform of current engineering science and technology practices. We assert that, while pluralism concerning use of the term sustainability is likely to persist, universities should continue to cultivate research and education programs specifically devoted to sustainable engineering science, an enterprise that is formally demarcated from business-as-usual and systems optimization approaches. Advancing sustainable engineering science requires a shift in orientation away from reductionism and intellectual specialization towards integrative approaches to science, education, and technology that: (1) draw upon an ethical awareness that extends beyond the usual bounds of professional ethics or responsible conduct of research to include macroethics, (2) adopt anticipatory and adaptive approaches to unintended consequences resulting from technological innovation that result in more resilient systems, and (3) cultivate interactional expertise to facilitate cross-disciplinary exchange. Unfortunately, existing education and research training programs are ill-equipped to prepare scientists and engineers to operate effectively in a wicked problems milieu. Therefore, it is essential to create new programs of graduate education that will train scientists and engineers to become sustainable engineering science experts equipped to recognize and grapple with the macro-ethical, adaptive, and cross-disciplinary challenges embedded in their technical research and development programs.     

Comparison of Stream Invertebrate Response Models for Bioassessment Metrics1

Waite, Ian R., Jonathan G. Kennen, Jason T. May, Larry R. Brown, Thomas F. Cuffney, Kimberly A. Jones, and James L. Orlando, 2012. Comparison of Stream Invertebrate Response Models for Bioassessment Metrics. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(3): 570-583. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2011.00632.x Abstract: We aggregated invertebrate data from various sources to assemble data for modeling in two ecoregions in Oregon and one in California. Our goal was to compare the performance of models developed using multiple linear regression (MLR) techniques with models developed using three relatively new techniques: classification and regression trees (CART), random forest (RF), and boosted regression trees (BRT). We used tolerance of taxa based on richness (RICHTOL) and ratio of observed to expected taxa (O/E) as response variables and land use/land cover as explanatory variables. Responses were generally linear; therefore, there was little improvement to the MLR models when compared to models using CART and RF. In general, the four modeling techniques (MLR, CART, RF, and BRT) consistently selected the same primary explanatory variables for each region. However, results from the BRT models showed significant improvement over the MLR models for each region; increases in R² from 0.09 to 0.20. The O/E metric that was derived from models specifically calibrated for Oregon consistently had lower R² values than RICHTOL for the two regions tested. Modeled O/E R² values were between 0.06 and 0.10 lower for each of the four modeling methods applied in the Willamette Valley and were between 0.19 and 0.36 points lower for the Blue Mountains. As a result, BRT models may indeed represent a good alternative to MLR for modeling species distribution relative to environmental variables.     

Information system for monitoring environmental impacts of genetically modified organisms

Background, aim and scope  

European legislation stipulates that genetically modified organisms (GMO) have to be monitored to identify potential adverse environmental effects. A wealth of different types of monitoring data from various sources including existing environmental monitoring programmes is expected to accumulate. This requires an information system to efficiently structure, process and evaluate the monitoring data.     

Air pollutants and health outcomes: Assessment of confounding by influenza

We assessed confounding of associations between short-term effects of air pollution and health outcomes by influenza using Hong Kong mortality and hospitalization data for 1996–2002.Three measures of influenza were defined: (i) intensity: weekly proportion of positive influenza viruses, (ii) epidemic: weekly number of positive influenza viruses ≥4% of the annual number for ≥2 consecutive weeks, and (iii) predominance: an epidemic period with co-circulation of respiratory syncytial virus <2% of the annual positive isolates for ≥2 consecutive weeks. We examined effects of influenza on associations between nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), sulfur dioxide (SO₂), particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter ≤10 μm (PM₁₀) and ozone (O₃) and health outcomes including all natural causes mortality, cardiorespiratory mortality and hospitalization. Generalized additive Poisson regression model with natural cubic splines was fitted to control for time-varying covariates to estimate air pollution health effects. Confounding with influenza was assessed using an absolute difference of >0.1% between unadjusted and adjusted excess risks (ER%).Without adjustment, pollutants were associated with positive ER% for all health outcomes except asthma and stroke hospitalization with SO₂ and stroke hospitalization with O₃. Following adjustment, changes in ER% for all pollutants were <0.1% for all natural causes mortality, but >0.1% for mortality from stroke with NO₂ and SO₂, cardiac or heart disease with NO₂, PM₁₀ and O₃, lower respiratory infections with NO₂ and O₃ and mortality from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease with all pollutants. Changes >0.1% were seen for acute respiratory disease hospitalization with NO₂, SO₂ and O₃ and acute lower respiratory infections hospitalization with PM₁₀. Generally, influenza does not confound the observed associations of air pollutants with all natural causes mortality and cardiovascular hospitalization, but for some pollutants and subgroups of cardiorespiratory mortality and respiratory hospitalization there was evidence to suggest confounding by influenza.     

Evaluation of a detailed model of secondary organic aerosol formation from α-pinene against dark ozonolysis experiments

BOREAM, a detailed model for the gas-phase oxidation of α-pinene and its subsequent formation of Secondary Organic Aerosol (SOA), is tested against a large set of SOA yield measurements obtained in dark ozonolysis experiments. For the majority of experiments, modelled SOA yields are found to agree with measured yields to within a factor 2. However, the comparisons point to a general underestimation of modelled SOA yields at high temperatures (above 30 °C), reaching an order of magnitude or more in the worst cases, whereas modelled SOA yields are often overestimated at lower temperature (by a factor of about 2). Comparisons of results obtained using four different vapour pressure prediction methods indicate a strong sensitivity to the choice of the method, although the overestimated temperature dependence of the yields is found in all cases. Accounting for non-ideality of the aerosol mixture (based on an adapted UNIFAC method) has significant effects, especially at low yields. Our simulations show that the formation of oligomers through the gas-phase reactions of Stabilised Criegee Intermediates (SCI) with other molecular organic products could increase the SOA yield significantly only at very low relative humidity (below 1%). Further tests show that the agreement between model and measurements is improved when the ozonolysis mechanism includes additional production of non-volatile compounds.     

Assessment of the uncertainty of using an inverse-dispersion technique to measure methane emissions from animals in a barn and in a small pen

Dispersion techniques are useful for assessing the effectiveness of management practices in mitigating methane (CH₄) emissions from animal operations. In this paper, the accuracy of an inverse-dispersion technique was examined for two common situations: 1) emissions from animals in a barn and 2) emissions from animals in a pen. For both situations, the accuracy of emission estimates generally increased with increasing fetch (scaled to barn height, h, or to pen width, X_s) between the source and the concentration measurement. The gas recovery ratio increased from 0.66 at 5 h to 0.93–1.03 at 10 h–25 h for the barn, and decreased from 1.59 at 0 X_s to 0.99 at 5 X_s and from 1.54 at 0 X_s to 1.09 at 5 X_s for the two small pen scenarios, due to the declining sensitivity of the dispersion model to errors in wind complexity and errors in the assumed source configuration. However, the relative uncertainty of the measured concentration increased with fetch due to the decreasing gas concentrations. Hence, improving the accuracy of emission estimates is a compromise between the source configuration sensitivity and the concentration measurement sensitivity. Fetches of about twice the size of the pen and about 10 times the height of the barn are suggested.     

Chromium speciation and fractionation in ground and surface waters in the vicinity of chromite ore processing residue disposal sites

Chromium concentrations of up to 91 mg l(-1) were found by ICP-OES for ground water from nine boreholes at four landfill sites in an area of S.E. Glasgow/S. Lanarkshire where high-lime chromite ore processing residue (COPR) from a local chemical works had been deposited from 1830 to 1968. Surface water concentrations of up to 6.7 mg l(-1) in a local tributary stream fell to 0.11 mg l(-1) in the River Clyde. Two independent techniques of complexation/colorimetry and speciated isotope dilution mass spectrometry (SIDMS) showed that Cr was predominantly (>90%) in hexavalent form (CrVI) as CrO4(2-), as anticipated at the high pH (7.5-12.5) of the sites. Some differences between the implied and directly determined concentrations of dissolved CrIII, however, appeared related to the total organic carbon (TOC) content. This was most significant for the ground water from one borehole that had the highest TOC concentration of 300 mg l(-1) and at which < 3% of Cr was in the form of CrVI. Subsequent ultrafiltration produced significant decreases in Cr concentration with decreasing size fractions, e.g. <0.45 microm, < 100 kDa, <30 kDa and < 1 kDa by the tangential-flow method. As this appeared related more to concentrations of humic substances than of TOC per se, horizontal bed gel electrophoresis of freeze-dried ultrafilter retentates was carried out to further characterise the CrIII-organic complex. This showed for the main Cr-containing fraction, 100 kDa-0.45 microm, that the Cr was associated with a dark brown band characteristic of organic (humic) matter. Comparison of gel electrophoresis and FTIR results for ultrafilter retentates of ground water from this borehole with those for a borehole at another site where CrVI predominated suggested the influence of carboxylate groups, both in reducing CrVI and in forming soluble CrIII-humic complexes. The implications of this for remediation strategies (especially those based on the addition of organic matter) designed to reduce highly mobile and carcinogenic Cr(VI)O4(2-) to the much less harmful CrIII as insoluble Cr(OH)3 are discussed.