Climate change is one of the main factors that will affect biodiversity in the future and may even cause species extinctions. We suggest a methodology to derive a general relationship between biodiversity change and global warming. In conjunction with other pressure relationships, our relationship can help to assess the combined effect of different pressures to overall biodiversity change and indicate areas that are most at risk. We use a combination of an integrated environmental model (IMAGE) and climate envelope models for European plant species for several climate change scenarios to estimate changes in mean stable area of species and species turnover. We show that if global temperature increases, then both species turnover will increase, and mean stable area of species will decrease in all biomes. The most dramatic changes will occur in Northern Europe, where more than 35% of the species composition in 2100 will be new for that region, and in Southern Europe, where up to 25% of the species now present will have disappeared under the climatic circumstances forecasted for 2100. In Mediterranean scrubland and natural grassland/steppe systems, arctic and tundra systems species turnover is high, indicating major changes in species composition in these ecosystems. The mean stable area of species decreases mostly in Mediterranean scrubland, grassland/steppe systems and warm mixed forests. 相似文献
The recent risk assessment by the North-Cotentin Radioecology Group (, 1999) outlined that (14)C has become one of the major sources of the low dose to man through seafood consumption. It was recommended that more data should be collected about (14)C in the local marine environment. The present study aims to respond to this recommendation. The estimation of (14)C activity in marine species is based on concentration factor values. The values reported here ranged from 1x10(3) to 5x10(3)Bqkg(-1)ww/BqL(-1). A comparison was made between the observed and predicted values. The accuracy of (14)C activity calculations was estimated between underestimation by a factor of 2 and over-estimation by 50% (95% confidence interval). However, the use of the concentration factor parameter is based on the biological and seawater compartments being in steady state. This assumption may not be met at short distances from the point of release of discharges, where rapid changes in seawater concentration may be smoothed out in living organisms due to transfer kinetics. The data processing technique, previously published by Fiévet and Plet (2003. Estimating biological half-lives of radionuclides in marine compartments from environmental time-series measurements. Journal of Environmental Radioactivity 65, 91-107), was used to deal with (14)C transfer kinetics, and carbon half-lives between seawater and a few biological compartments were thus estimated. 相似文献
Within the European research project ARTEMIS, significant works have been conducted to analyse the hot emissions of pollutant from the passenger cars regarding the driving cycles and to propose modelling approaches taking into account large but heterogeneous datasets recorded in Europe. The review and analysis of a large range of test cycles enabled first the building-up of a set of contrasted cycles specifically designed for characterizing the influence of the driving conditions. These cycles were used for the measurement of the pollutants emission rates from nine passenger cars on a chassis dynamometer.Emissions measured on 30 vehicles tested on cycles adapted to their motorization (i.e., cycles for high- or low-powered cars, inducing thus a significant difference in the dynamic) were also considered for analysing the influence of the cycles and of the kinematic parameters on the hot emission rates of the regulated pollutants (CO, HC, NOx, CO2, PM). An analyses of variance demonstrated the preponderance of the driving type (urban, rural road, motorway), of the vehicle category (fuel, emission standard) and emitting status (high/normal emitter) and thus the pertinence of analysing and modelling separately the corresponding emissions. It also demonstrated that Urban driving led systematically to high diesel emission rates and to high CO2, HC and NOx emissions from petrol cars. Congested driving implied high CO2 (diesel and petrol) and high diesel NOx emission. On motorway, the very high speeds generated high CO2, while unsteady speeds induced diesel NOx and petrol CO over-emissions. A search for pertinent kinematic parameters showed that urban diesel emissions were mostly sensitive to stops and speed parameters, while petrol emissions were rather sensitive to acceleration parameters. On the motorway, diesel NOx and CO2 emissions rates increased with the speed variability and occurrence of high speeds, while CO2 and CO over-emission from petrol cars were linked to the occurrence of strong acceleration at high speeds.A modelling approach based on partial least square regression was tested, which demonstrates its ability to discriminate satisfactorily the emissions according to dynamic related parameters and in particular when considering the two-dimensionnal distribution of instantaneous speed and acceleration.Finally, a strategy was proposed to analyse the large but heterogeneous set of hot emission data collected within the ARTEMIS project. The approach consisted in analysing the similarity of the numerous cycles as regards their kinematic, grouping them into reference test patterns through an automatic clustering, and then computing reference emissions for these patterns. These principles enabled the development of a method to compute the emissions at a low spatial scale, i.e. the so-called traffic situation approach, which was implemented in the European Artemis model for estimating the cars’ pollutant emissions. 相似文献
In this paper, we present applied methanol recycling technology utilising Chromatographic applications, which has been designed for an academic-size institution. The procedure is combined out of proper recovery technique and the biodegradation method intended for postprocessing residues. Additionally, analytical methods controlling the quality of the process are described in detail in order to enable full transfer of the proposed methodology to the analogous institution. The recovered solvent is of relatively high purity (> 99.92%), containing traces of water and volatile compounds. The spectral purity is sufficient to employ recycled methanol in HPLC applications where low wayelength detection is necessary. Biodegradation of distillation first-cuts and still bottoms is implemented using isolated strains ofMethylobacterium organophilum. During the biodegradation process, a series of carotenoids are biosynthesized, which are of a high commercial value. The proposed application, therefore, offers not only a sustainable, waste-free solution in handling methanol waste, but can also serve as a potential source of value. 相似文献
The estimation of leachate quantities produced in landfills is necessary to dimension the treatment plants allowing to reduce the polluting load of these effluents and consequently avoid their negative impacts on the environment. Different leachate quantification methods were used in this study to assess the leachate volume produced at the Oum Azza landfill. The water balance method give comparable estimations of leachate production to the Ouled Berjal landfill ratio. The first method showed average values between 487 and 495 m3/day for 2015, 2018, and 2019, and at the same time, the second method gave values between 470 and 477 m3/day for the same years. In contrast, the World Bank ratio showed high values that vary between 2260 and 2295 m3/day for 2015, 2018, and 2019. The on-site data and the statistical analysis showed us that the World Bank ratio is not adapted for the estimation of the leachates produced in Oum Azza landfill, while the water balance and the ratio of Ouled Berjal landfill allowed to give comparable results to reality. 相似文献
Objective: The objective of this study is to estimate the crash risk per kilometer traveled by powered two-wheeler (PTW) riders filtering through traffic on urban roads.
Methods: Using the traffic injury crashes recorded by the police over a period of 3 years on 14 sections of urban roads in the city of Marseille, France, and a campaign of observations of PTWs, the crash risk per kilometer traveled by PTWs filtering was estimated and compared to the risk of PTWs that did not filter.
Results: The results show that the risk of PTW riders being involved in injury crashes while filtering is significantly higher than the risk for riders who do not filter. For the 14 sections studied, it is 3.94 times greater (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.63, 5.89). This excess risk occurred for all PTW categories. Furthermore, no space appears to be safer than the others for filtering. Riders filtering forward along the axis of the carriageway, along bus lanes, or between traffic lanes (lane-splitting) all have a crash risk greater than the risk of those who do not filter.
Conclusions: All measures limiting the practice of filtering by PTWs on urban roads would probably contribute to improving the safety of their users. 相似文献