Using process-based models to filter out natural variability in observed concentrations of nitrogen and phosphorus in river water

Advances in process-based modelling of loads of nitrogen and phosphorus carried by rivers have created new possibilities to interpret time series of water quality data. We examined how model runs with constant anthropogenic forcing can be used to estimate and filter out weather-driven variation in observational data and, thereby, draw attention to other features of such data. An assessment of measured and modelled nutrient concentrations at the outlets of 45 Swedish rivers provided promising results for total nitrogen. In particular, joint analyses of observational data and outputs from the catchment model S-HYPE strengthened the evidence that downward trends in nitrogen were due to mitigation measures in agriculture. Evaluation of modelled and observed total phosphorus concentrations revealed considerable bias in the collection or chemical analysis of water samples and also identified weaknesses in the model outputs. Together, our results highlight the need for more efficient two-way communication between environmental modelling and monitoring.     

Field effectiveness evaluation of advanced driver assistance systems

Abstract

Objective: Advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) are a class of vehicle technologies designed to increase safety by providing drivers with timely warnings and autonomously intervening to avoid hazardous situations. Though laboratory testing suggests that ADAS technologies will greatly impact crash involvement rates, real-world evidence that characterizes their effectiveness is still limited. This study evaluates and quantifies the association of ADAS technologies with the likelihood of a moderate or severe crash for new-model BMWs in the United States.

Methods: Vehicle ADAS option information for the cohort of model year 2014 and later BMW passenger vehicles sold after January 1, 2014 (n?=?1,063,503), was coded using VIN-identified options data. ADAS technologies of interest include frontal collision warning with autonomous emergency braking, lane departure warning, and blind spot detection. BMW Automated Crash Notification system data (from January 2014 to November 2017) were merged with vehicle data by VIN to identify crashed vehicles (n?=?15,507), including date, crash severity (delta V), and area of impact. Using Cox proportional hazards regression modeling, the study calculates the adjusted hazard ratio for crashing among BMW passenger vehicles with versus without ADAS technologies. The adjusted percentage reduction in moderate and severe crashes associated with ADAS is interpreted as one minus the hazard ratio.

Results: Vehicles equipped with both autonomous emergency braking and lane departure warning were 23% less likely to crash than those not equipped (hazard ratio [HR]?=?0.77; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.73–0.81), controlling for model year, vehicle size and body type. Autonomous emergency braking and lane departure warning generally occur together, making it difficult to tease apart their individual effects. Blind spot detection was associated with a 14% reduction in crashes after controlling for the presence of autonomous emergency braking and lane departure warning (HR =0.86; 95% CI, 0.744–0.99). Differences were observed by vehicle type and crash type. The combined effect of autonomous emergency braking and lane departure warning was greater in newer model vehicles: Equipped vehicles were 13% less likely to crash (HR =0.87; 95% CI, 0.79–0.95) among 2014 model year vehicles versus 34% less likely to crash (HR =0.66; 95% CI, 0.57–0.77) among 2017 model year vehicles.

Conclusion: This robust cohort study contributes to the growing evidence on the effectiveness of ADAS technologies.     

Mapping Biological Resources in the Coastal Zone: An Evaluation of Methods in a Pioneering Study from Norway

For many years, the planning and management of terrestrial areas has been supported by a detailed knowledge of the distribution of habitats and their associated species. However, the detailed mapping of biological resources in extent coastal areas, such as the Norwegian coastal zone, is unrealistic due to its enormous coastline. Here, we present a useful and feasible approach and a set of simple, cost-effective methods which are suitable for providing a broad-scale overview of marine habitats and fish resources. This approach was developed in conjunction with a pioneer study conducted along the southern coast of the Skagerrak, where we combined knowledge gathered from local fishermen with scientific knowledge of important species and nature types to establish a coastal sea mapping program. GIS modeling tools were used in both the mapping program and to integrate local and scientific knowledge into digital maps made available to local area management. This multi-faceted approach, which combines local knowledge and scientific methods, provides valuable information with respect to marine biodiversity, and has been used extensively by local environmental management.     

Development of a diffusive sampling method for determination of methyl isocyanate in air

A diffusive sampling method for determination of methyl isocyanate in air has been developed. A glass fibre filter impregnated with 1-(2-methoxyphenyl)piperazine in a commercially available diffusive sampling device was used to collect methyl isocyanate and the derivative formed was analysed with LC-MS/MS. The sampling rate was determined to be 15.6 ml min(-1), with a relative standard deviation of 7.3%. The sampler was validated for sampling periods from 15 min to 8 h, for relative humidities from 20% to 80% and for concentrations from I to 46 microg m(-3). A field validation was also made and the diffusive sampling results showed no difference compared to a pumped reference method. The impregnated filters have to be stored apart from the diffusive sampler housing and loaded into the sampler prior to each sampling.     

Schwermetalle in Regenwürmern Baden-Württembergs

Goal and Scope

Since 1984 the Environmental Protection Agency (LfU) of the State of Baden-Wuerttemberg has been investigating the heavy metal burden of earthworms from representative long-term forest observation plots. These investigations are aimed at elucidating and assessing adverse effects of pollutants on the soil biocenosis.

Methods

At first only lead and cadmium were measured in the worms; in repetitive measurements over the years further metals or metalloid elements such as aluminum, arsenic, chromium, cobalt, copper, manganese, mercury, nickel, thallium, vanadium, and zinc were added to the agenda.

Results and Conclusion

The frequency distribution of the metals in the earthworms was characterized statistically. For the first time state-wide background values, normal values and threshold values were established for all the elements measured. A comparable study with a similar range of parameters is known neither nationally nor internationally. Time trend studies have been available for lead and cadmium since 1985/86, and for zinc since 1987. The studies show a steady decrease of the heavy metals on a state-wide average and especially in the ‘Odenwald’ and ‘Black Forest’ hills with their formerly highly polluted earthworm habitats. Today, the level of these metals in the earthworms is low with few exceptions. This holds true for other heavy metals as well.

Recommendations and Perspectives

The state-wide decreasing very low heavy metal burden of forest observation plots far from known emission sources can be considered a success of air pollution abatement measures. Because of the ongoing atmospheric deposition of heavy metals, regular observation should continue in order to estimate time trends and to recommend the reduction of emissions when precautionary values (part 2) are exceeded.     

Evaluation of Selected Gaseous Halocarbons for Use in source Test Performance Audits

A repository of 38 gaseous organic compounds in compressed gas cylinders has been established by EPA. This repository was established to provide standards for source test performance audits, that is, quantitative quality assurance tests. Among these compounds are ten halogenated organic species, which are the focus of this paper.

Stability studies of all ten compounds have been performed to determine the feasibility of using them as performance audit standards. Results indicate that all of the halocarbons tested are adequately stable to be used as reliable audit standards.

Subsequent to completion of stability studies, four of the ten halocarbons were used in source test performance audits. Results are available at this time for two of the four compounds; the results show agreement within 10% of the concentrations previously established by Research Triangle Institute.     

Northern Idaho House Dust and Soil Lead Levels Compared to the Bunker Hill Superfund Site

House dust has been identified as a major exposure medium for lead (Pb) in children. High levels of Pb in soil and house dust have been recorded at the Bunker Hill Superfund Site (BHSS) in northern Idaho, an historic mining and smelting district. Soil and dust remediation at the site was required; however, regional background soil and dust Pb levels had not been well characterized. The objective of this survey was to determine background house dust Pb levels and to compare those levels with concentrations, and dust and Pb loading rates measured at the BHSS. Soil and house dust samples were collected in five towns demographically similar to the BHSS but unaffected by the mining industry. The background concentrations and loading rates were significantly lower than those observed at the site. House age was a significant factor affecting background soil and house dust Pb concentrations and loading rates.     

Climate impact on social systems: the risk assessment approach

A novel approach to the problem of estimating climate impact on social systems is suggested. This approach is based on a risk concept, where the notion of critical events is introduced and the probability of such events is estimated. The estimation considers both the inherent stochasticity of climatic processes and the artificial stochasticity of climate predictions due to scientific uncertainties. The method is worked out in some detail for the regional problem of crop production and the risks associated with global climate change, and illustrated by a case study (Kursk region of the FSU). In order to get local climatic characteristics (weather), a so-called statistical weather generator is used. One interesting finding is that the 3% risk level remains constant up to 1.0–1.1°C rise of mean seasonal temperature, if the variance does not change. On the other hand, the risk grows rapidly with increasing variance (even if the mean temperature rises very slowly). The risk approach is able to separate two problems: (i) assessment of global change impact, and (ii) decision making. The main task for the scientific community is to provide the politicians with different options; the choice of admissible (from the social point of view) critical events and the corresponding risk levels is the business of decision makers.