Streamflow,Sediment Transport,and Geomorphic Change during the 2011 Flood on the Missouri River Near Bismarck–Mandan,ND

Geomorphic change from extreme events in large managed rivers has implications for river management. A steady‐state, quasi‐three‐dimensional hydrodynamic model was applied to a 29‐km reach of the Missouri River using 2011 flood data. Model results for an extreme flow (500‐year recurrence interval [RI]) and an elevated managed flow (75‐year RI) were used to assess sediment mobility through examination of the spatial distribution of boundary or bed shear stress (τ_b) and longitudinal patterns of average τ_b, velocity, and kurtosis of τ_b. Kurtosis of τ_b was used as an indicator of planform channel complexity and can be applied to other river systems. From differences in longitudinal patterns of sediment mobility for the two flows we can infer: (1) under extreme flow, the channel behaves as a single‐thread channel controlled primarily by flow, which enhances the meander pattern; (2) under elevated managed flows, the channel behaves as multithread channel controlled by the interaction of flow with bed and channel topography, resulting in a more complex channel; and (3) for both flows, the model reach lacks a consistent pattern of deposition or erosion, which indicates migration of areas of erosion and deposition within the reach. Despite caveats and limitations, the analysis provides useful information about geomorphic change under extreme flow and potential implications for river management. Although a 500‐year RI is rare, extreme hydrologic events such as this are predicted to increase in frequency.     

Growth of the Decision Tree: Advances in Bottom‐Up Climate Change Risk Management

There has recently been a return in climate change risk management practice to bottom‐up, robustness‐based planning paradigms introduced 40 years ago. The World Bank's decision tree framework (DTF) for “confronting climate uncertainty” is one incarnation of those paradigms. In order to better represent the state of the art in climate change risk assessment and evaluation techniques, this paper proposes: (1) an update to the DTF, replacing its “climate change stress test” with a multidimensional stress test; and (2) the addition of a Bayesian network framework that represents joint probabilistic behavior of uncertain parameters as sensitivity factors to aid in the weighting of scenarios of concern (the combination of conditions under which a water system fails to meet its performance targets). Using the updated DTF, water system planners and project managers would be better able to understand the relative magnitudes of the varied risks they face, and target investments in adaptation measures to best reduce their vulnerabilities to change. Next steps for the DTF include enhancements in: modeling of extreme event risks; coupling of human‐hydrologic systems; integration of surface water and groundwater systems; the generation of tradeoffs between economic, social, and ecological factors; incorporation of water quality considerations; and interactive data visualization.     

Analyses of Urban Drainage Network Structure and its Impact on Hydrologic Response1

Meierdiercks, Katherine L., James A. Smith, Mary Lynn Baeck, and Andrew J. Miller, 2010. Analyses of Urban Drainage Network Structure and Its Impact on Hydrologic Response. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 1-12. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00465.x Abstract: Urban flood studies have linked the severity of flooding to the percent imperviousness or land use classifications of a watershed, but relatively little attention has been given to the impact of urban drainage networks on hydrologic response. The drainage network, which can include storm pipes, surface channels, street gutters, and stormwater management ponds, is examined in the Dead Run watershed (14.3 km²). Comprehensive digital representations of the urban drainage network in Dead Run were developed and provide a key observational resource for analyses of urban drainage networks and their impact on hydrologic response. Analyses in this study focus on three headwater subbasins with drainage areas ranging from 1.3 to 1.9 km² and that exhibit striking contrasts in their patterns and history of development. It is shown that the drainage networks of the three subbasins, like natural river networks, exhibit characteristic structures and that these features play critical roles in determining urban hydrologic response. Hydrologic modeling analyses utilize the Environmental Protection Agency’s Stormwater Management Model (SWMM), which provides a flexible platform for examining the impacts of drainage network structure on hydrologic response. Results of SWMM modeling analyses suggest that drainage density and presence of stormwater ponds impact peak discharge more significantly in the Dead Run subbasins than the percent impervious or land use type of the subbasins.     

The effect of navigational expertise on wayfinding in new environments

Becoming proficient at navigation in urban environments is something that we all aspire to. Here we asked whether being an expert at wayfinding in one environment has any effect on learning new spatial layouts. Licensed London taxi drivers are among the most proficient urban navigators, training for many years to find their way around a complex and irregularly-laid out city. We first tested how well they could learn the layout of an unfamiliar town compared with a group of non-taxi drivers. Second, we investigated how effectively taxi drivers could integrate a new district into their existing spatial representation of London. We found that taxi drivers were significantly better than control participants at executing routes through the new town, and representing it at a map-like survey level. However, the benefits of navigational expertise were not universal. Compared with their performance in the new town, taxi drivers were significantly poorer at learning the layout of a new area that had to be integrated with their existing knowledge of London. We consider reasons for this picture of facilitation and limitation, in particular drawing parallels with how knowledge acquisition occurs in the context of expertise in general.     

Drinking and driving and perceptions of arrest risk among California drivers: Relationships with DUI arrests in their city of residence

Objective: Addressing drinking and driving remains a challenge in the United States. The present study aims to provide feedback on driving under the influence (DUI) in California by assessing whether drinking and driving behavior is associated with the DUI arrest rates in the city in which the driver lives; whether this is due to perceptions that one can get arrested for this behavior; and whether this differed by those drivers who would be most affected by deterrence efforts (those most likely to drink outside the home).

Methods: This study consisted of a 2012 roadside survey of 1,147 weekend nighttime drivers in California. City DUI arrest rates for 2009–2011 were used as an indicator of local enforcement efforts. Population average logistic modeling was conducted modeling the odds of perceived high arrest likelihood for DUI and drinking and driving behavior within the past year.

Results: As the DUI arrest rates for the city in which the driver lives increased, perceived high risk of DUI arrest increased. There was no significant relationship between either city DUI arrest rates or perceived high risk of DUI arrest with self-reported drinking and driving behavior in the full sample. Among a much smaller sample of those most likely to drink outside the home, self-reported drinking and driving behavior was negatively associated with DUI arrests rates in their city of residence but this was not mediated by perceptions.

Conclusion: The results of the present study suggest that perceptions are correlated with one aspect of DUI efforts in one's community. Those who were more likely to drink outside the home could be behaviorally influenced by these efforts.     

Organochlorines and selenium in California night-heron and egret eggs

Exceptionally high concentrations of DDE were found in black-crowned night-heron (Nycticorax nycticorax) (geometric mean 8.62 g g^–1 wet wt.) and great egret (Casmerodius albus) (24.0 g g^–1) eggs collected from the Imperial Valley (Salton Sea), California in 1985. DDE concentrations in 14 of the 87 (16%) randomly selected night-heron eggs from six colonies (two in San Francisco Bay, three in the San Joaquin Valley, and one at Salton Sea) were higher than those associated with reduced reproductive success of night-herons (8 g g^–1). In addition, mean shell thickness of night-heron eggs collected from the San Joaquin Valley and from San Francisco Bay during 1982–1984 was significantly less than pre-DDT thickness and was negatively correlated (r=–0.50, n=75, P<0.0001) with DDE concentration. Mean selenium concentration in night-heron eggs from Salton Sea (1.10 g g^–1) was significantly higher than in eggs from three locations in the San Joaquin Valley, and in egret eggs from Salton Sea.     

Evaluating the implementation of cleaner production audit demonstration projects

Cleaner production audit demonstration projects were carried out in two Chinese case factories as part of a project co-sponsored by the Illinois Environmental Protection Agency and China's State Environmental Protection Administration. Audit results at both factories were characterized by implementation of predominantly low- or no-cost options, notable reductions in water pollution, and incomplete financial benefit analyses. Two reasons explain the financial benefit analyses' apparent weakness. First, factory audit teams were inexperienced in the techniques and procedures used to determine the economic benefits of cleaner production options. Second, motivations project personnel had for participating in the demonstration projects were not centered on attaining the monetary benefits of implementing cleaner production. Instead, other factors related to the international nature of the project, such as a high degree of state level oversight and prestige, were more influential in affecting the behavior of project personnel.     

Globalization of human infectious disease

Globalization has facilitated the spread of numerous infectious agents to all corners of the planet. Analysis of the Global Infectious Disease and Epidemiology Network (GIDEON) database quantitatively illustrates that the globalization of human infectious agents depends significantly on the range of hosts used. Infectious agents specific to humans are broadly and uniformly distributed, whereas zoonotic infectious agents are far more localized in their geographical distribution. Moreover, these patterns vary depending on transmission mode and infectious agent taxonomy. This dichotomy is unlikely to persist if certain aspects of globalization (for example, exotic species introductions) continue unabated. This raises a serious concern for public health and leaves nations with the task of determining the infectious agents that have the greatest potential to establish within their borders. At the advent of a century characterized by an apparent increase in emerging infectious diseases, these results have critical implications for public-health policy and future research pathways of infectious disease ecology.