Determining the drivers of population structure in a highly urbanized landscape to inform conservation planning

Understanding the environmental contributors to population structure is of paramount importance for conservation in urbanized environments. We used spatially explicit models to determine genetic population structure under current and future environmental conditions across a highly fragmented, human‐dominated environment in Southern California to assess the effects of natural ecological variation and urbanization. We focused on 7 common species with diverse habitat requirements, home‐range sizes, and dispersal abilities. We quantified the relative roles of potential barriers, including natural environmental characteristics and an anthropogenic barrier created by a major highway, in shaping genetic variation. The ability to predict genetic variation in our models differed among species: 11–81% of intraspecific genetic variation was explained by environmental variables. Although an anthropogenically induced barrier (a major highway) severely restricted gene flow and movement at broad scales for some species, genetic variation seemed to be primarily driven by natural environmental heterogeneity at a local level. Our results show how assessing environmentally associated variation for multiple species under current and future climate conditions can help identify priority regions for maximizing population persistence under environmental change in urbanized regions.     

Sorption and desorption of three endocrine disrupters in soils

Sorption of the estrogens estrone (E1), 17beta-estradiol (E2) and 17alpha-ethynylestradiol (EE2) on four soils was examined using batch equilibrium experiments with initial estrogen concentrations ranging from 10 to 1000 ng mL-1. At all concentrations, >85% of the three estrogens sorbed rapidly to a sandy soil. E1 sorbed more strongly to soil than E2 or EE2. Partial oxidation of E2 to E1 was observed in the presence of soils. Autoclaving was more effective at reducing this conversion than inhibition with sodium azide or mercuric chloride, and had little effect on sorption, relative to the chemical microbial inhibitors. Sorption of EE2 was greater for fine-textured than coarse-textured soils, but greater than 90% of EE2 sorbed onto all four soils. The greatest degree of desorption of estrogens from the sandy soil occurred with the lowest initial concentration of 10 ng mL-1 and reached levels >or=80% for E1 and E2. Desorption of EE2 was greater in coarser textured soils than finer-textured soils. Again, relative desorption from all soils was greatest with low initial concentrations. Therefore, at environmentally relevant concentrations, estrogens quickly sorb to soils, and soils have a large capacity to bind estrogens, but these endocrine-disrupting compounds can become easily desorbed and released into the aqueous phase.     

Future wave-driven coastal sediment transport along the Catalan coast (NW Mediterranean)

In the context of climate change, this study evaluates the impact on the long-shore and cross-shore sediment transport (LST and CST) along the Catalan coast (NW Mediterranean Sea) derived from climate projections obtained from five combinations of regional and global circulation models (RCMs and GCMs). Special emphasis is given to how inter-model variability translates from wave projections to wave-driven coastal impacts, which is still poorly known. Results show that the uncertainty is in general larger, especially for LST, for which the discrepancies among regional models are more relevant than those associated with the forcing wave parameters. Such increase in the uncertainty can be explained by the nonlinear processes involved, and the role of the forcing wave parameters having sometimes competing effects (e.g. wave height vs. wave direction). This illustrates that the performance of each RCM–GCM can vary from forcing to impact parameters; hence, the suitability of a particular RCM–GCM to evaluate a certain impact should be assessed based on its ability to properly simulate such impact. In this regard, LST and CST rates computed using empirical formulae that integrate several wave climate parameters, as in this study, can be used as a non-computationally expensive tool to assess the suitability of a given RCM–GCM to project changes in coastal dynamics.     

Fish consumption in pregnancy, cord blood mercury level and cognitive and psychomotor development of infants followed over the first three years of life: Krakow epidemiologic study

BACKGROUND: Although the maternal fish consumption is supposed to have beneficial effects on development of infants, it may be harmful for child cognitive development since fish is a common source of methylmercury. PURPOSE OF THE STUDY: Purpose of the study was to describe the usual pattern of fish consumption during pregnancy in Poland and explain the variability of prenatal mercury exposure due to fish intake by mothers. The other endpoint of the study was the assessment of the cognitive and psychomotor development of infants related to prenatal mercury exposure over the 3-year follow-up. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The study sample consisted of 374 infants born at 33-42 weeks of gestation between January 2001 and March 2003 to mothers attending ambulatory prenatal clinics in the first and second trimesters of pregnancy. Total mercury level in whole cord blood was measured and the Bayley Scales of Infant Development (BSID-II) was used to assess the mental (MDI) and psychomotor developmental index (PDI) in children at 12, 24 and 36 months of age. RESULTS: Self-reported weekly amount of fish consumption during the first two trimesters of pregnancy correlated positively with umbilical cord mercury concentrations (r(s)=0.22, p<0.0001). The corresponding correlation coefficient for the fish consumption in the third trimester of pregnancy was 0.21, p<0.0001. There was an inverse association between mercury exposure and both MDI (beta regression coeff.=-2.8, p=0.01) and PDI scores (beta coeff.=-2.3, p=0.04) at 12 months of age. Subsequent BSID-II testing at 24 and 36 months did not confirm significant association between exposure and cognitive or psychomotor function. The estimates of association between mercury prenatal exposure and the development of infants, which were based on the longitudinal analysis of all BSID-II measurements done in the follow-up (generalized estimating equations statistical model) showed that the performance deficit observed at 12 months of age was of border significance.     

Projected Changes in Discharge in an Agricultural Watershed in Iowa

Our improved capability to adapt to the future changes in discharge is linked to our capability to predict the magnitude or at least the direction of these changes. For the agricultural United States Midwest, too much or too little water has severe socioeconomic impacts. Here, we focus on the Raccoon River at Van Meter, Iowa, and use a statistical approach to examine projected changes in discharge. We build on statistical models using rainfall and harvested corn and soybean acreage to explain the observed discharge variability. We then use projections of these two predictors to examine the projected discharge response. Results are based on seven global climate models part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and two representative concentration pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5). There is not a strong signal of change in the discharge projections under the RCP 4.5. However, the results for the RCP 8.5 point to a stronger changing signal related to larger projected increases in rainfall, resulting in increased trends, in particular, in the upper part of the discharge distribution (i.e., 60th percentile and above). Examination of two hypothetical agricultural scenarios indicates that these increasing trends could be alleviated by decreasing the extent of the agricultural production. We also discuss how the methodology presented in this study represents a viable approach to move forward with the concept of return period for engineering design and management in a nonstationary world.