Modeling population effects of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill on a long-lived species

The 2010 Deepwater Horizon (DWH) oil spill exposed common bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) in Barataria Bay, Louisiana to heavy oiling that caused increased mortality and chronic disease and impaired reproduction in surviving dolphins. We conducted photographic surveys and veterinary assessments in the decade following the spill. We assigned a prognostic score (good, fair, guarded, poor, or grave) for each dolphin to provide a single integrated indicator of overall health, and we examined temporal trends in prognostic scores. We used expert elicitation to quantify the implications of trends for the proportion of the dolphins that would recover within their lifetime. We integrated expert elicitation, along with other new information, in a population dynamics model to predict the effects of observed health trends on demography. We compared the resulting population trajectory with that predicted under baseline (no spill) conditions. Disease conditions persisted and have recently worsened in dolphins that were presumably exposed to DWH oil: 78% of those assessed in 2018 had a guarded, poor, or grave prognosis. Dolphins born after the spill were in better health. We estimated that the population declined by 45% (95% CI 14–74) relative to baseline and will take 35 years (95% CI 18–67) to recover to 95% of baseline numbers. The sum of annual differences between baseline and injured population sizes (i.e., the lost cetacean years) was 30,993 (95% CI 6607–94,148). The population is currently at a minimum point in its recovery trajectory and is vulnerable to emerging threats, including planned ecosystem restoration efforts that are likely to be detrimental to the dolphins’ survival. Our modeling framework demonstrates an approach for integrating different sources and types of data, highlights the utility of expert elicitation for indeterminable input parameters, and emphasizes the importance of considering and monitoring long-term health of long-lived species subject to environmental disasters. Article impact statement: Oil spills can have long-term consequences for the health of long-lived species; thus, effective restoration and monitoring are needed.     

The influence of body size, condition index and tidal exposure on the variability in metal bioaccumulation in Mytilus edulis

Mussels are commonly used to monitor metal pollution despite high inter-individual variability in tissue concentrations. In this study, influences of body size, condition index and tidal height on concentrations of As, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb and Zn were investigated. Body weight was inversely related to metal concentrations and for Cd, Mn, Pb and Zn the regression was affected by tidal height. Except for As, Fe and Mn metal concentrations were inversely related to physiological status though no differences between essential and non-essential metals were obvious. After correcting for body size, tidal height was related positively to As, Cd and Zn, negatively related to Cu, Fe and Mn while Co, Cr, Ni and Pb were independent of tidal height. The study recommends stringent measures during sampling for biomonitoring or metal concentrations at each location must be normalized to a common body size, CI and tidal height.