Use of the superpopulation approach to estimate breeding population size: an example in asynchronously breeding birds

Many populations of animals are fluid in both space and time, making estimation of numbers difficult. Much attention has been devoted to estimation of bias in detection of animals that are present at the time of survey. However, an equally important problem is estimation of population size when all animals are not present on all survey occasions. Here, we showcase use of the superpopulation approach to capture-recapture modeling for estimating populations where group membership is asynchronous, and where considerable overlap in group membership among sampling occasions may occur. We estimate total population size of long-legged wading bird (Great Egret and White Ibis) breeding colonies from aerial observations of individually identifiable nests at various times in the nesting season. Initiation and termination of nests were analogous to entry and departure from a population. Estimates using the superpopulation approach were 47-382% larger than peak aerial counts of the same colonies. Our results indicate that the use of the superpopulation approach to model nesting asynchrony provides a considerably less biased and more efficient estimate of nesting activity than traditional methods. We suggest that this approach may also be used to derive population estimates in a variety of situations where group membership is fluid.     

Graphical spatial models: a new view on interpreting spatial pattern

Graphical models provide an important tool for facilitating communication between scientists, decision-makers, and statisticians—many complicated ecological processes can be described in terms of “box-and-arrow” conceptual diagrams (e.g., Shipley in Cause and correlation in biology: a user’s guide to path analysis, structural equations and causal inferences, Cambridge Universtiy Press, Cambridge, 2000; Clark and Gelfand TRENDS in Ecology and Evolution 21:375–380, 2006). In particular, problems in landscape ecology often involve modeling relationships among multiple physical and/or biological variables that may operate on differing spatial scales (e.g., Rossi et al. in Ecol Monographs 62:277–314, 1992; Legendre et al. in Ecography 25:601–615, 2002; Overmars et al. in Ecol Model 164:257–270, 2003; Brown and Spector in J Appl Ecol 45:1639–1648, 2008; Koniak and Noy-Meir in Ecol Model 220:1148–1158, 2008). These problems are inherently multivariate, though researchers commonly rely on univariate methods, such as spatial regression models, to address them. In this paper, we introduce a multivariate method—graphical spatial models—that extends path analysis to incorporate spatial autocorrelation in one or more variables in a directed graph. We show how both exogenous and endogenous ecological processes as defined by Legendre et al. (Ecography 25:601–615, 2002) and Lichstein et al. (Ecol Monographs 72:445–463, 2002) can be represented in a graph. Most importantly, we show how to translate graphs representing these ecological processes into statistically estimable models. We motivate our theoretical results using an example of stream health data from the Willamette Valley, Oregon. For these data we are interested in the spatial pattern within both riparian land use and an index of stream health, and whether there is an association between land use and stream health, after accounting for these spatial patterns. We use a graphical spatial model to address these ecological questions simultaneously. We find that the health of a stream decreases as the percent of developed land within a 120-m riparian buffer increases; interestingly, there is only evidence of spatial pattern within land use.     

Estimating variation in surface emissivities of intertidal macroalgae using an infrared thermometer and the effects on temperature measurements

Accurate measurements of surface temperatures with an infrared (IR) thermometer require input of the emissivities of the surfaces being measured; however, few determinations of the emissivities of intertidal organisms’ surfaces have been made. Emissivities of intertidal macroalgae were measured to determine whether algal species, measurement angle, hydration, and layering affected them. Emissivities were similar and averaged 0.94 among 11 of 13 species. The species with lower and more variable emissivities (Chondracanthus exasperatus and Desmarestia viridis) differed in morphology from the other species, which were relatively flat thin blades with little surface texture. Measurement angle caused emissivities to decrease significantly in Mazzaella splendens but not in three other species. Hydration and layering of Ulva lactuca also had no effect. At 22 °C, measured temperatures were within 1 °C of actual temperatures when thermometer emissivity settings ranged from 0.75 to 1.00. When emissivities were set lower than actual values, measured temperatures were lower than actual temperatures at 15 °C and higher than actual temperatures at 60 °C. When the IR thermometer was used to measure surface temperatures of nine species of intertidal algae immediately before they were inundated by the incoming tide, temperatures were higher in mid intertidal than low intertidal individuals and higher on a sunnier day than an overcast day. Temperatures of U. lactuca increased with increasing height on the shore, but temperatures of Ulvaria obscura did not. Temperatures were also higher in Fucus distichus blades than receptacles, and lower in U. lactuca and M. splendens occurring in the lower layers of stacks of algae.     

The use and abuse of scientific studies

In response to Evelyn Pluhar'sWho Can Be Morally Obligated to Be a Vegetarian? in this journal issue, the author has read all of Pluhar's citations for the accuracy of her claims and had these read by an independent nutritionist. Detailed analysis of Pluhar's argument shows that she attempts to make her case by consistent misappropriation of the findings and conclusions of the studies she cites. Pluhar makes sweeping generalizations from scanty data, ignores causal explanations given by scientists, equates hypothesis with fact, draws false cause conclusions from studies, and in one case claims a conclusion opposite of what the scientist published. Such poor reasoning cannot be the basis of an argument for moral vegetarianism. A broader search of the literature and attention to reviews and textbooks in nutrition shows that each of Pluhar's claims is suspect or incorrect. Pluhar has not undermined my central claims: even if animals have certain rights and well-planned vegetarian diets are safe in complex industrialized societies, these diets cannot be so regarded if the presuppositions of high levels of wealth, education, and medical care do not exist; and, women, children, the aged and some ill persons are at greater risk on restrictive vegan diets. Thus, any duty of moral vegetarianism is not categorical but provisional in nature.     

Comparison of Canadian firefighters and healthy controls based on submaximal fitness testing and strength considering age and gender

Introduction. Few studies have addressed whether firefighters are fitter than the general population and possess sufficient levels of aerobic capacity and muscle strength to perform on-duty tasks in a safe and efficient manner, considering age and gender. We aimed to evaluate the fitness levels of Hamilton firefighters, and to determine the effects of age and gender. Methods. In total, 89 participants were recruited. The modified Canadian aerobic fitness test was used to determine participants’ estimated maximal oxygen consumption (V_O2max) levels. For upper and lower body strength levels, a calibrated J-Tech hand-held dynamometer and a National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) lifting device was used respectively. Results. Firefighters’ mean (SD) V_O2max level was 40.30?±?6.25?ml·kg^?1·min^?1. Age proved to have a statistically significant impact on V_O2max (p?<?0.001). Gender displayed statistically significant effects on strength levels. Firefighters’ age was the only statistically significant independent variable, and accounted for 61.00% of the variance in firefighters’ aerobic capacity levels. Conclusions. Firefighters possessed somewhat similar aerobic capacities but much higher levels of body strength when compared with the general population. With age, firefighters’ aerobic capacities decreased; however, their upper and lower body strength levels remained the same.     

Risk perception by offshore workers on UK oil and gas platforms

This paper reports the first investigation of risk perception by workers on offshore oil and gas installations on the UK Continental Shelf, following changes in offshore safety legislation in the wake of the Piper Alpha disaster in 1988. The Offshore Safety Case regulations (Health and Safety Executive, 1992, A Guide to the Offshore Installations (Safety Case) Regulations) put the onus on the operator to identify the major hazards and to reduce the risks to As Low As is Reasonably Practicable (ALARP). The regulations specifically state that Quantitative Risk Assessments (QRA) must be used when preparing the Safety Case. However, people do not use QRA when making everyday judgements about risk; they make subjective judgements known as risk perceptions, which are influenced by a number of different factors. This study was designed to complement the extensive QRA calculations that have already been carried out in the development of Safety Cases. The aim was to measure subjective risk perception in offshore personnel and examine how this relates to the more objective risk data available, namely accident records and QRA calculations. This paper describes the Offshore Risk Perception Questionnaire developed to collect the data and reports on UK offshore workers' perceptions of the risks associated with major and minor hazards, work tasks and other activities aboard production platforms.     

Assessing Risks to Biodiversity from Future Landscape Change

We examined the impacts of possible future land development patterns on the biodiversity of a landscape. Our landscape data included a remote sensing derived map of the current habitat of the study area and six maps of future habitat distributions resulting from different land development scenarios. Our species data included lists of all bird, mammal, reptile, and amphibian species in the study area, their habitat associations, and area requirements for each. We estimated the area requirements using home ranges, sampled population densities, or genetic area requirements that incorporate dispersal distances. Our measures of biodiversity were species richness and habitat abundance. We calculated habitat abundance in two ways. First, we computed the total habitat area for each species in each landscape. Second, we calculated the number of habitat units for each species in each landscape by dividing the size of each habitat patch in the landscape by the area requirement and summing over all patches. Species richness was based on presence of habitat. Species became extinct in the landscape if they had no habitat area or no habitat units, respectively. We then computed ratios of habitat abundance in each future landscape to habitat abundance in the present for each species. We also computed the ratio of future to present species richness. We then calculated summary statistics across all species. Species richness changed little from present to future. There were distinctly greater risks to habitat abundance in landscapes that extrapolated from present trends or zoning patterns, however, as opposed to landscapes in which land development activities followed more constrained patterns. These results were stable when tested using Monte Carlo simulations and sensitivity tests on the area requirements. We conclude that this methodology can begin to discriminate the effects of potential changes in land development on vertebrate biodiversity.     

Light levels used during feeding by primate species with different color vision phenotypes

The intensity of available light is important in determining how well a diurnal animal can distinguish color. Primates with different types of color vision may exhibit behaviors that maximize visual contrast during critical activities such as feeding. We hypothesized that (1) trichromatic taxa will feed in a wide range of light conditions because color constancy permits stabilized color appearance across changes in illumination, and (2) that taxa with a high proportion of dichromatic individuals will tend to feed at higher light levels to increase color contrast. We recorded light levels during feeding bouts of seven primate taxa with varying degrees of color vision: the dichromatic Lemur catta, two polymorphic species, Propithecus v. verreauxi and Ateles geoffroyi, and the routine trichromats, Alouatta palliata, Colobus guereza, Piliocolobus badius, and Cercopithecus ascanius. Results were equivocal for our hypotheses. While routinely trichromatic taxa used varying light levels, the pattern of results did not differ from the dichromatic Lemur catta. However, polymorphic taxa not only sought the highest light, but females, which are the only individuals in polymorphic taxa that can be trichromatic, fed in higher light levels than males when eating non-green foods. This result is consistent with selection operating to maintain a balanced polymorphism in these taxa, though the connection between light levels and color vision type for the females is unclear. Our results further suggest that trichromatic vision may afford a selective advantage because it permits foraging under a greater range of light levels.     

Stable lead isotope profiles in smelter and general urban communities: a comparison of environmental and blood measures

High-precision lead isotope ratios and lead concentrations have been compared statistically and graphically in women of child-bearing age (n = 77) from two smelter communities and one general urban community to evaluate the relative contributions to blood lead of tissue lead stores and lead from the contemporaneous environment (soil, floor dust, indoor airborne dust, water, food). Blood lead (PbB) contents were generally low (e.g. <10 g dL^–1). Statistically significant isotopic differences in blood and environmental samples were observed between the three cities although isotopic differences in blood for individual subjects living in close proximity (200 m radius) was as large as the differences within a city. No single environmental measure dominated the biological isotope profile and in many cases the low levels of blood lead meant that their isotopic profiles could be easily perturbed by relatively small changes of environmental exposure. Apportioning of sources using lead isotopes is possibly not feasible, nor cost effective, when blood lead levels are <5 g dL^–1. Interpretations based on statistical analyses of city-wide data do not give the same conclusions as when the houses are considered individually. Aggregating data from multiple subjects in a study such as this obscures potentially useful information. Most of the measures employed in this study, and many other similar studies, are markers of only short-to-medium integration of lead exposure. Serial sampling of blood and longer sampling times, especially for household variables, should provide more meaningful information.