Empirical Estimation of Virtual Point Source Height Over a Bank of Coke Ovens

This paper addresses an empirical method of assessment of the height of a virtual point source. In order to achieve such assessment, three planes defining the location of a virtual point source in a space are created and formulas describing the geometry of observer’s sight and plume orientation are used. Data for calculations are obtained on a basis of plume photographs. The final position of a virtual emission point is described by a set of its coordinates in the Cartesian coordinate system. Presented method may be applied as a means to verify and validate the existing formulas describing the rise of plume above the stack exit or as a tool enabling acquisition of information for the sake of creating new formulas of this type. The calculation of the location of a virtual point source ascribed to the point emission from the roof of the bank of coke oven is presented and illustrated with photographs which reveal position of plume, adequate planes, axes and characteristic objects.     

Spatial Validation of Land Use Change Models Using Multiple Assessment Techniques: A Case Study of Transition Potential Models

Using land use and cover change (LUCC) models for the urban growth planning, environmental assessment, and decision-making needs the establishment of an appropriate level of confidence in their performance. The objective of this research is to explore the importance of using multiple assessment techniques in order to fairly evaluate the performance of land use models. An application is conducted by using the Land Change Modeler for Ecological Sustainability (LCM) which is an empirical and transition potential model. LCM is applied to model the agricultural to developed areas transition in Rennes metropolitan area (France). The land demand is estimated using the Markov Chain model; whereas, the transition potential map is implemented using the Multi-Layer Perceptron Neural Network (MLP) method based on historical changes and driving variables. The model performance is assessed based on a variety of the most commonly used validation techniques. At the study area level, the correctness and disagreement analysis shows that LCM performs better at predicting the amount than the allocation of developed areas. Additionally, landscape metrics reveal that LCM tends to predict a fragmented urban form, which seems evident because of the large number of the individual urban patches. At the municipality level, the error budget analysis shows that the model performance, which varies highly between different subareas, needs to be improved. Moreover, the cross-tabulation between the transition potential map and both the observed and the predicted agricultural to developed areas transitions reveals that the order of the transition potential values does not perfectly fit the observed change; whereas, the predicted change is not solely limited to areas with high potential.     

Mercury Air Emission from Coal-Fired Public Power Sector: Uncertainty and Its Monthly Distribution. Case Study from Poland

The paper presents two aspects concerned with the mercury air emission inventory from coal-fired public power and energy plants: an uncertainty analysis, using Monte Carlo simulation (Journal of the American Statistical Association, 44(247), 335–341 1949) and the monthly distributions applying the Denton-Cholette approach (Dagum & Cholette 2006). The analysis determines uncertainty about the estimates mercury air emission from 1990 to 2012 including the development of air pollution control (APC) technologies in the Polish public power and energy sector, also the monthly distributions in comparison with previously obtained results (H?awiczka 2008). The uncertainty of mercury (Hg) content in fuel is 31.6% for hard coal and 42.4% for brown coal. The confidence interval for the estimated emission changed from [kg] (16,082.2; 16,242.2) in 1990 to (10,525.9;10,671.1) in 2012. However, the Denton-Cholette approach overestimates the emissions for the warmer periods of the year, but it could, however, in our view, be applied to attain the monthly distributions.     

Assessing regulatory violations of disinfection by-products in water distribution networks using a non-compliance potential index

Inactivating pathogens is essential to eradicate waterborne diseases. However, disinfection forms undesirable disinfection by-products (DBPs) in the presence of natural organic matter. Many regulations and guidelines exist to limit DBP exposure for eliminating possible health impacts such as bladder cancer, reproductive effects, and child development effects. In this paper, an index named non-compliance potential (NCP) index is proposed to evaluate regulatory violations by DBPs. The index can serve to evaluate water quality in distribution networks using the Bayesian Belief Network (BBN). BBN is a graphical model to represent contributing variables and their probabilistic relationships. Total trihalomethanes (TTHM), haloacetic acids (HAA5), and free residual chlorine (FRC) are selected as the variables to predict the NCP index. A methodology has been proposed to implement the index using either monitored data, empirical model results (e.g., multiple linear regression), and disinfectant kinetics through EPANET simulations. The index’s usefulness is demonstrated through two case studies on municipal distribution systems using both full-scale monitoring and modeled data. The proposed approach can be implemented for data-sparse conditions, making it especially useful for smaller municipal drinking water systems.     

Assessment of physicochemical parameters and prevalence of virulent and multiple-antibiotic-resistant <Emphasis Type="Italic">Escherichia coli</Emphasis> in treated effluent of two wastewater treatment plants and receiving aquatic <Emphasis Type="Italic">milieu</Emphasis> in Durban,South Africa

The poor operational status of some wastewater treatment plants often result in the discharge of inadequately treated effluent into receiving surface waters. This is of significant public health concern as there are many informal settlement dwellers (ISDs) that rely on these surface waters for their domestic use. This study investigated the treatment efficiency of two independent wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) in Durban, South Africa and determined the impact of treated effluent discharge on the physicochemical and microbial quality of the receiving water bodies over a 6-month period. Presumptive Escherichia coli isolates were identified using biochemical tests and detection of the mdh gene via PCR. Six major virulence genes namely eae, hly, fliC, stx1, stx2, and rfbE were also detected via PCR while antibiotic resistance profiles of the isolates were determined using Kirby-Bauer disc diffusion assay. The physicochemical parameters of the wastewater samples ranged variously between 9 and 313.33 mg/L, 1.52 and 76.43 NTUs, and 6.30 and 7.87 for COD, turbidity, and pH respectively, while the E. coli counts ranged between 0 and 31.2?×?10³ CFU/ml. Of the 200 selected E. coli isolates, the hly gene was found in 28 %, fliC in 20 %, stx2 in 17 %, eae in 14 %, with stx1 and rfbE in only 4 % of the isolates. Notable resistance was observed toward trimethoprim (97 %), tetracycline (56 %), and ampicillin (52.5 %). These results further highlight the poor operational status of these WWTPs and outline the need for improved water quality monitoring and enforcement of stringent guidelines.     

Mitigation Costs in a Globalized World: Climate Policy Analysis with REMIND-R

Within this paper, we present the novel hybrid model REMIND-R and its application in a climate policy context based on the EU target to avoid a warming of the Earth’s atmosphere by more than 2°C compared to the pre-industrial level. This paper aims to identify necessary long-term changes in the energy system and the magnitude of costs to attain such a climate protection target under different designs of the post-2012 climate policy regime. The regional specification of mitigation costs is analyzed in the context of globalization where regions are linked by global markets for emission permits, goods, and several resources. From simulation experiments with REMIND-R, it turns out that quite different strategies of restructuring the energy system are pursued by the regions. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that the variance of mitigation costs is higher across regions than across policy regimes. First-order impacts, in particular, reduced rents from trade in fossil resources, prevail regardless of the design of the policy regime.     

Long-term seasonal changes of the Danube River eco-chemical status in the region of Serbia

Seasonal spatial and temporal changes of selected eco-chemical parameters in section of the Danube River flowing through Serbia were analyzed. Data for electrical conductivity (EC), dry and suspended matter, residue on ignition, chemical oxygen demand (COD), biochemical oxygen demand (BOD-5), ultraviolet extinction, dissolved oxygen (DO), oxygen saturation, pH, nitrates, total phosphorus, and nitrogen were collected between 1992 and 2006. The use of monthly medians combined with linear regression and two-sided t test has been proven to be the best approach for resolving trends from natural variability of investigated parameters and for determining trend significance. Patterns of temporal changes between different months were examined. It was also determined that spatial trends of some parameters oscillate in predictable manner, increasing in one part of the year and declining in the other. Regression slope coefficients, an excellent indicator for determining when the water quality is changing the most along the course of the Danube, reach their maximum during summer for temperature (t), electric conductivity, nitrates, and total N, while in the same season suspended matter, COD, BOD-5, DO, and oxygen saturation coefficients reach their minimum. Correlations for used data sets of selected parameters were analyzed for better understanding of their behavior and mutual relations. It was observed that as Danube flows through Serbia, its general eco-chemical status either stagnates or improves, but the rate of river self-purification often depends on the season of the year.     

Fish scales as indicators of wastewater toxicity from an international water channel Tung Dhab drain

The effect of wastewater exposure on scales and chromatophores of freshwater fish Channa punctatus was studied using wastewater dilutions (60–100%) from an international water channel Tung Dhab drain at an interval of 15 and 30 days. The exposed fish showed significant alterations such as uprooted and damaged lepidonts and dispersal of chromatophores. These observations strongly suggest that fish scales can be successfully employed as indicators of wastewater pollution.     

Groundwater contamination evolution in the Guadiamar and Agrio aquifers after the Aznalcóllar spill: assessment and environmental implications

In 1998, the Agrio and Guadiamar rivers underwent an enormous environmental disaster caused by the rupture of the Aznalcóllar tailings dam and the release of 6 hm³ of pyrite sludge and acidic water. Both rivers run over recent alluvial materials which form a small-sized aquifer which is however important because underground water feeds the flow of the rivers. This work analyzes the state of groundwater 10 years after the spill. Before the dam failure, this aquifer was already contaminated in the zone nearest to the mine, to which the impact of the spill was added. Contamination levels in the alluvial aquifer of the Agrio River have decreased remarkably. However, they are still important, with acidic pH values and high concentrations of toxic elements (maximum values of 16 mg/L of Zn and 15 mg/L of Al). There are also important levels of contamination in the Guadiamar alluvial area closest to the mine, as well as in specific zones located further south. The concentration of toxic elements is mainly controlled by pH. The evolution of contaminant levels show a sharp decrease after the first years following the spill, followed by a subsequent stabilization. It is necessary to take measures for the recovery of the aquifer because, otherwise, groundwater will continue contributing contaminants into the Agrio and Guadiamar rivers.