Using ensemble modeling to predict the impacts of assisted migration on recipient ecosystems

Assisted migration is a controversial conservation measure that aims to protect threatened species by moving part of their population outside its natural range. Although this could save species from extinction, it also introduces a range of risks. The magnitude of the threat to recipient ecosystems has not been investigated quantitatively, despite being the most common criticism leveled at the action. We used an ensemble modeling framework to estimate the risks of assisted migration to existing species within ecosystems. With this approach, we calculated the consequences of an assisted migration project across a very large combination of translocated species and recipient ecosystems. We predicted the probability of a successful assisted migration and the number of local extinctions would result from establishment of the translocated species. Using an ensemble of simulated 15-species recipient ecosystems, we estimated that translocated species will successfully establish in 83% of cases if introduced to stable, high-quality habitats. However, assisted migration projects were estimated to cause an average of 0.6 extinctions and 5% of successful translocations triggered 4 or more local extinctions. Quantifying the impacts to species within recipient ecosystems is critical to help managers weigh the benefits and negative consequences of assisted migration.     

Relative influence of environmental factors and fishing on coral reef fish assemblages

Understanding whether assemblages of species respond more strongly to bottom-up (availability of trophic resources or habitats) or top-down (predation pressure) processes is important for effective management of resources and ecosystems. We determined the relative influence of environmental factors and predation by humans in shaping the density, biomass, and species richness of 4 medium-bodied (10–40 cm total length [TL]) coral reef fish groups targeted by fishers (mesopredators, planktivores, grazer and detritivores, and scrapers) and the density of 2 groups not targeted by fishers (invertivores, small fish ≤10 cm TL) in the central Philippines. Boosted regression trees were used to model the response of each fish group to 21 predictor variables: 13 habitat variables, 5 island variables, and 3 fishing variables (no-take marine reserve [NTMR] presence or absence, NTMR size, and NTMR age). Targeted and nontargeted fish groups responded most strongly to habitat variables, then island variables. Fishing (NTMR) variables generally had less influence on fish groups. Of the habitat variables, live hard coral cover, structural complexity or habitat complexity index, and depth had the greatest effects on density, biomass, and species richness of targeted fish groups and on the density of nontargeted fishes. Of the island variables, proximity to the nearest river and island elevation had the most influence on fish groups. The NTMRs affected only fishes targeted by fishers; NTMR size positively correlated with density, biomass, and species richness of targeted fishes, particularly mesopredatory, and grazing and detritivorous fishes. Importantly, NTMRs as small as 15 ha positively affected medium-bodied fishes. This finding provides reassurance for regions that have invested in small-scale community-managed NTMRs. However, management strategies that integrate sound coastal land-use practices to conserve adjacent reef fish habitat, strategic NTMR placement, and establishment of larger NTMRs will be crucial for maintaining biodiversity and fisheries.     

Evaluating Flow Diversion Impacts to Groundwater‐Dependent Riparian Vegetation with Flow Alteration and Groundwater Model Analysis

An approach for assessing the potential ecologic response of groundwater‐dependent riparian vegetation to flow alteration is developed, focusing on change to groundwater. Groundwater requirements for riparian vegetation are reviewed in conjunction with flow alteration statistics. Where flow alteration coincides with groundwater‐related vegetation sensitivities, scenarios are developed for groundwater simulation. Groundwater depths and recession rates in the riparian zone are simulated for baseline and altered stream hydrographs, with changes to river stage and width represented with a transient, flow‐dependent boundary condition. Potential flow diversion from the Upper Gila River in New Mexico is examined. Statistical flow alteration analysis, applying prospective diversions to a 76‐year record of daily flow, shows that flows in the winter‐spring months and within the high‐pulse to small flood range are subject to greatest potential change. Groundwater simulation scenarios are developed for these flow conditions in representative dry, near‐average, and wet years. Differences in groundwater elevations, generally less than 0.25 m during the flow alteration period, dissipate rapidly following cessation of diversion. Relating groundwater depth, recession rates and range of fluctuations to riparian vegetation needs, we find adverse ecological response is not expected from groundwater impacts for the flow alteration examined.     

A theoretical integration of leader emergence and leadership effectiveness: Over,under, and congruent emergence

There is a long and rich history of research on the concept of leader emergence. Much of this research positions leader emergence alongside leadership effectiveness as an epiphenomenal criterion in leadership research. Although this view has enhanced our understanding of factors that influence leader emergence and leadership effectiveness individually, our understanding of the potential alignment or misalignment of these concepts remains opaque. Following from this, we are left with unanswered questions concerning how, why, and under what conditions do the right or wrong leaders emerge or fail to emerge. Theory that develops insights into these questions is needed to advance our understanding of leadership and to cope with challenges of identifying and developing effective leaders and maximizing leadership potential in organizations. By integrating theories of leader emergence and leadership effectiveness—and considering their implications jointly—we provide a conceptual basis for identifying and understanding a more complete range of leader emergence than has been suggested in the literature. Importantly, our theoretical frame explains how our leader emergence types—over-emergence, under-emergence, congruent emergence, and congruent non-emergence—are differentially associated with a common set of factors. In doing so, we illuminate tradeoffs that might accompany different interventions intended to enhance leadership in organizations.     

Nutrients and Heavy Metals in Legacy Sediments: Concentrations,Comparisons with Upland Soils,and Implications for Water Quality

Concentrations of nutrients and heavy metals in streambank legacy sediments are needed to estimate watershed exports and to evaluate against upland inputs. Concentrations of nutrients and heavy metals were determined for legacy sediments in 15 streambanks across northeastern Maryland, southeastern Pennsylvania, and northern Delaware. Samples were collected from multiple bank depths from forested, agricultural, urban, and suburban sites. Analyses were performed for fine (<63 μm) and coarse sediment fractions. Nutrient and heavy metal concentrations were significantly higher in fine than coarse legacy sediments and water extractable nutrient concentrations were significantly greater for fine sediments. Nutrient and heavy metal concentrations were highest in streambank legacy sediments associated with urban land use, but few differences were found with bank depth. Total N (40–3,970 mg/kg) and P (25–1,293 mg/kg) and bioavailable P (0.25–48.8 mg/kg) concentrations for legacy sediments were lower than those for upland soils. This suggests that legacy sediments could serve as sink or source of N and P depending on the redox conditions and stream water nutrient concentrations. However, despite low concentrations, caution should be exercised since streambank erosion and legacy sediment mass loadings could be high, these sediments are in immediate proximity of aquatic ecosystems, and biogeochemical transformations could result in release of the nutrients.     

Fractionation and mobility of phosphorus in a sandy forest soil amended with biosolids

Goal, Scope and Background Biosolids, i.e., treated sewage sludge, are commonly used as a fertilizer and amendment to improve soil productivity. Application of biosolids to meet the nitrogen (N) requirements of crops can lead to accumulation of phosphorus (P) in soils, which may result in P loss to water bodies. Since 1996, biosolids have been applied to a Pinus radiata D. Don plantation near Nelson City, New Zealand, in an N-deficient sandy soil. To investigate sustainability of the biosolids application programme, a long-term research trial was established in 1997, and biosolids were applied every three years, at three application rates, including control (no biosolids), standard and high treatments, based on total N loading. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of repeated application of biosolids on P mobility in the sandy soil. Materials and Methods Soil samples were collected in August 2004 from the trial site at depths of 0–10, 10–25, 25–50, 50–75, and 75–100 cm. The soil samples were analysed for total P (TP), plant-available P (Olsen P and Mehlich 3 P), and various P fractions (water-soluble, bioavailable, Fe and Al-bound, Ca-bound, and residual) using a sequential P fractionation procedure. Results and Discussion Soil TP and Olsen P in the high biosolids treatment (equivalent to 600 kg N ha⁻¹ applied every three years) had increased significantly (P<0.05) in both 0–10 cm and 10–25 cm layers. Mehlich 3 P in soil of the high treatment had increased significantly only at 0–10 cm. Olsen P appeared to be more sensitive than Mehlich 3 P as an indicator of P movement in a soil profile. Phosphorus fractionation revealed that inorganic P (Al/Fe-bound P and Ca-bound P) and residual P were the main P pools in soil, whereas water-soluble P accounted for approximately 70% of TP in biosolids. Little organic P was found in either the soil or biosolids. Concentrations of water-soluble P, bioavailable inorganic P (NaHCO₃ Pi) and potentially bioavailable inorganic P (NaOH Pi) in both 0–10 and 10–25 cm depths were significantly higher in the high biosolids treatment than in the control. Mass balance calculation indicated that most P applied with biosolids was retained by the top soil (0–25 cm). The standard biosolids treatment (equivalent to 300 kg N ha⁻¹ applied every three years) had no significant effect on concentrations of TP, Mehlich 3 P and Olsen P, and P fractions in soil. Conclusions The results indicate that the soil had the capacity to retain most biosolids-derived P, and there was a minimal risk of P losses via leaching in the medium term in the sandy forest soil because of the repeated biosolids application, particularly at the standard rate. Recommendations and Perspectives Application to low-fertility forest land can be used as an environmentally friendly option for biosolids management. When biosolids are applied at a rate to meet the N requirement of the tree crop, it can take a very long time before the forest soil is saturated with P. However, when a biosolids product contains high concentrations of P and is applied at a high rate, the forest ecosystem may not have the capacity to retain all P applied with biosolids in the long term. ESS-Submission Editor: Dr. Jean-Paul Schwitzguébel jean-paul.schwitzguebel@epfl.ch     

Development of microbial degradation of cypermethrin and diazinon in organically and conventionally managed soils

The behaviour of pesticides in the soil is a complex issue and is controlled by the physical, chemical and biological properties of the soil. The ability of microorganisms to degrade pesticides is not only controlled by the bioavailability of a chemical but also by their capacity to develop the ability to utilise available chemicals. The development of catabolism in the indigenous soil microflora of four organically and one conventionally managed soils was investigated for two pesticides: cypermethrin and diazinon. Soils were amended with cypermethrin and diazinon and aged for 0, 2, 4, 6, 8, and 14 weeks and, at each time point, mineralisation of freshly added 14C-cypermethrin or 14C-diazinon was measured by trapping 14CO2. In general, contact times between the soil and the pesticide resulted in a reduction in the lag phase (the period of time before mineralisation exceeded 5% of the added activity), followed by increases in the extent of mineralisation. Cypermethrin was mineralised significantly in all soils; whereas, diazinon was only appreciably mineralised in two of the soils, most notably in the organic soil from Redesdale. Statistical analysis showed pH and organic matter content of the soil had a significant effect on the extent of mineralisation (P< or = 0.05) of the cypermethrin in the soils.     

Australian and U.S. News Media Portrayal of Sharks and Their Conservation

Investigation of the social framing of human–shark interactions may provide useful strategies for integrating social, biological, and ecological knowledge into national and international policy discussions about shark conservation. One way to investigate social opinion and forces related to sharks and their conservation is through the media's coverage of sharks. We conducted a content analysis of 300 shark‐related articles published in 20 major Australian and U.S. newspapers from 2000 to 2010. Shark attacks were the emphasis of over half the articles analyzed, and shark conservation was the primary topic of 11% of articles. Significantly more Australian articles than U.S. articles treated shark attacks (χ² = 3.862; Australian 58% vs. U.S. 47%) and shark conservation issues (χ² = 6.856; Australian 15% vs. U.S. 11%) as the primary article topic and used politicians as the primary risk messenger (i.e., primary person or authority sourced in the article) (χ² = 7.493; Australian 8% vs. U.S. 1%). However, significantly more U.S. articles than Australian articles discussed sharks as entertainment (e.g., subjects in movies, books, and television; χ² = 15.130; U.S. 6% vs. Australian 1%) and used scientists as the primary risk messenger (χ² = 5.333; U.S. 25% vs. Australian 15%). Despite evidence that many shark species are at risk of extinction, we found that most media coverage emphasized the risks sharks pose to people. To the extent that media reflects social opinion, our results highlight problems for shark conservation. We suggest that conservation professionals purposefully and frequently engage with the media to highlight the rarity of shark attacks, discuss preventative measures water users can take to reduce their vulnerability to shark encounters, and discuss conservation issues related to local and threatened species of sharks. When integrated with biological and ecological data, social‐science data may help generate a more comprehensive perspective and inform conservation practice. Descripción de Tiburones y su Conservación por Medios Informativos Australianos y Norteamericanos     

Building capacity for community‐based brownfields remediation and redevelopment: An innovative technical assistance model

Thousands of unaddressed brownfields sites remain in our nation's poorest urban neighborhoods, despite almost two decades of federal and state attention to cleaning up and redeveloping these sites. Many of these neighborhoods have active community‐based organizations (CBOs) whose mission it is to improve the quality of life for disadvantaged residents whose lives are negatively impacted by these decaying, contaminated properties. Under the assumption that greater involvement of community organizations, specifically community development corporations (CDCs), would help to spur increased attention to and progress toward remediating these sites, we developed a pilot technical assistance program to build CDC capacity to facilitate or actually undertake brownfields redevelopment projects. This article describes the process of development and the program's content and structure and evaluates the program based on a pilot test conducted with two CDCs in a major US city. Future prospects for expansion of this type of program are discussed. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

A national critical loads framework for atmospheric deposition effects assessment: I. Method summary

The United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), with the assistance of the US Department of Energy (DOE) and the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is examining the utility of a critical loads approach for evaluating atmospheric pollutant effects on sensitive ecosystems. A critical load has been defined as, “a quantitative estimate of an exposure to one or more pollutants below which significant harmful effects on specified sensitive elements of the environment do not occur according to present knowledge.” Working in cooperation with the United Nations Economic Community for Europe’s (UN-ECE) Long Range Transboundary Air Pollution (LRTAP) Convention, the EPA has developed a flexible, six-step approach for setting critical loads for a range of ecosystem types. The framework is based on regional population characteristics of the ecosystem(s) of concern. The six steps of the approach are: (1) selection of ecosystem components, indicators, and characterization of the resource; (2) definition of functional subregions; (3) characterization of deposition within each of the subregions; (4) definition of an assessment end point; (5) selection and application of models; and (6) mapping projected ecosystem responses. The approach allows for variable ecosystem characteristics and data availability. Specific recognition of data and model uncertainties is an integral part of the process, and the use of multiple models to obtain ranges of critical loads estimates for each ecosystem component in a region is encouraged. Through this intercomparison process uncertainties in critical loads projections can be estimated. The research described in this article has been funded by the US Environmental Protection Agency. This document has been prepared at the EPA Environmental Research Laboratory in Corvallis, Oregon, through contract #68-C8-0006 with Man Tech Environmental Technology, Inc. It has been subjected to the agency’s peer and administrative review and approved for publication. Mention of trade names or commercial products does not constitute endorse ment or recommendation for use.