Multi-scale analysis of a household level agent-based model of landcover change

Scale issues have significant implications for the analysis of social and biophysical processes in complex systems. These same scale implications are likewise considerations for the design and application of models of landcover change. Scale issues have wide-ranging effects from the representativeness of data used to validate models to aggregation errors introduced in the model structure. This paper presents an analysis of how scale issues affect an agent-based model (ABM) of landcover change developed for a research area in the Midwest, USA. The research presented here explores how scale factors affect the design and application of agent-based landcover change models. The ABM is composed of a series of heterogeneous agents who make landuse decisions on a portfolio of cells in a raster-based programming environment. The model is calibrated using measures of fit derived from both spatial composition and spatial pattern metrics from multi-temporal landcover data interpreted from historical aerial photography. A model calibration process is used to find a best-fit set of parameter weights assigned to agents' preferences for different landuses (agriculture, pasture, timber production, and non-harvested forest). Previous research using this model has shown how a heterogeneous set of agents with differing preferences for a portfolio of landuses produces the best fit to landcover changes observed in the study area. The scale dependence of the model is explored by varying the resolution of the input data used to calibrate the model (observed landcover), ancillary datasets that affect land suitability (topography), and the resolution of the model landscape on which agents make decisions. To explore the impact of these scale relationships the model is run with input datasets constructed at the following spatial resolutions: 60, 90, 120, 150, 240, 300 and 480 m. The results show that the distribution of landuse-preference weights differs as a function of scale. In addition, with the gradient descent model fitting method used in this analysis the model was not able to converge to an acceptable fit at the 300 and 480 m spatial resolutions. This is a product of the ratio of the input cell resolution to the average parcel size in the landscape. This paper uses these findings to identify scale considerations in the design, development, validation and application of ABMs of landcover change.     

Atrazine degradation in a containerized rhizosphere system

The effect of atrazine (2-chloro-4-ethylamino-6-isopropylamino-s-triazine) on rhizosphere microorganisms and its fate in a containerized rhizosphere system was studied. The rhizosphere system consisted of corn grown in pot containing a defined potting mix of sand and bark with atrazine. Sterilized potting mix and a container without plants served as controls. Atrazine was extracted and analyzed via HPLC. Fluorescent pseudomonad populations increased 100-fold in the rhizposphere during a 60-day incubation period as compared to the nonvegetated control. Atrazine degradation was higher in the rhizosphere system (half-life of 7 days) compared to the nonvegetated control (half-life of greater than 45 days). The major degradation product detected in the rhizosphere system was deisopropylatrazine; other products detected included deethylatrazine, deethylhydroxyatrazine, deisopropylatrazine and hydroxyatrazine. Hydroxyatrazine was detected in the nonvegetated and sterile controls. The containerized rhizosphere system provides an experimental system to study the fate of pesticidal chemicals as well as the effects on microbial populations.     

The just rate of depletion of a natural resource

The optimal pricing and use of a natural resource is reconsidered with respect to intergenerational equity considerations. It is assumed that in a just economy, each generation chooses the plan that maximizes its own utility, subject to the constraint that the plan should not be exploitative in the sense that each generation does not take advantage of its earlier point in time with respect to future generations. It is shown that if the cost of production of an alternative energy source (e.g., solar) is sufficiently high relative to the stock of naturally stored energy, the constraints of justice result in a lower rate of energy use initially, but a higher rate later.     

Impact of the composition of combustion generated fine particles on epithelial cell toxicity: influences of metals on metabolism

Inhaled airborne particulate matter (PM) represents a potentially significant health hazard to humans. Exposure to PM strongly correlates with pulmonary inflammation and incidences of severe respiratory distress, including increased hospital admissions for breathing disorders, asthma, emphysema, and chronic bronchitis. PM generated from the combustion of fuel oils and coals contain a number of water-soluble transition metals including Fe, V, and Zn.

We have evaluated the impact of PM types with varying composition collected from the combustion of oils and coals on the health and metabolism of lung cell cultures. Three colorimetric assays (sulforhodamine B (SRB), Janus green, and MTT) have been adapted to quantify the impact of PM on rat lung alveolar type II epithelial cells (RLE-6TN cells). The PM toxicity metrics evaluated were inhibition of cell proliferation (SRB and Janus green) and inhibition of cellular metabolism (MTT). Cell proliferation is inhibited in a consistent dose-dependent manner by PM concentrations from 25 to 250 μg/ml. At a level of 100 μg/ml, oil-derived PM diminishes cell metabolism by as much as 40% relative to controls; the degree of inhibition is strongly dependent on PM particle size and metal content. Conversely, coal-derived PM at the same dosage diminishes cell metabolism by no more than 20% relative to controls. All three assays provide highly repeatable results and consistent toxicity rankings of the PMs evaluated. Overall, metabolic inhibition as measured by the MTT assay was deemed the most appropriate metric for PM toxicity, primarily due to its applicability with in vivo-like confluent cell monolayers.     

An assessment of the reported leakage of anthropogenic radionuclides from the underground nuclear test sites at Amchitka Island, Alaska, USA to the surface environment

Three underground nuclear tests representing approximately 15-16% of the total effective energy released during the United States underground nuclear testing program from 1951 to 1992 were conducted at Amchitka Island, Alaska. In 1996, Greenpeace reported that leakage of radionuclides, 241Am and 239+240Pu, from these underground tests to the terrestrial and freshwater environments had been detected. In response to this report, a federal, state, tribal and non-governmental team conducted a terrestrial and freshwater radiological sampling program in 1997. Additional radiological sampling was conducted in 1998. An assessment of the reported leakage to the freshwater environment was evaluated by assessing 3H values in surface waters and 240Pu/239Pu ratios in various sample media. Tritium values ranged from 0.41 Bq/l +/- 0.11 two sigma to 0.74 Bq/1 +/- 0.126 two sigma at the surface water sites sampled, including the reported leakage sites. Only at the Long Shot test site, where leakage of radioactive gases to the near-surface occurred in 1965. were higher 3H levels of 5.8 Bq/1 +/- 0.19 two sigma still observed in 1997, in mud pit #3. The mean 240Pu/239Pu for all of the Amchitka samples was 0.1991 +/- 0.0149 one standard deviation, with values ranging from 0.1824 +/- 1.43% one sigma to 0.2431 +/- 6.56% one sigma. The measured 3H levels and 240Pu/239Pu ratios in freshwater moss and sediments at Amchitka provide no evidence of leakage occurring at the sites reported by Buske and Miller (1998 Nuclear-Weapons-Free America and Alaska Community Action on Toxics, Anchorage, Ak, p.38) and Miller and Buske (1996 Nuclear Flashback: The Return to Anchitka, p.35). It was noted that the marine sample; 240Pu/239Pu ratios are statistically different than the global fallout ratios presented by Krey et al. (1976) and Kelley, Bond, and Beasley (1999). The additional non-fallout component 240Pu/239Pu ratio, assuming a single unique source, necessary to modify the global fallout 240Pu/239Pu ratio to that measured in the marine samples is on the order of 0.65 (Hameedi, Efurd, Harmon, Valette-Silver, & Robertson, 1999; Kelley et al., 1999). While this potentially suggests another plutonium source, such as high burn-up nuclear reactor fuel, rather than underground nuclear tests, the uncertainties in analyses and environmental processes need to be fully assessed before any conclusion can be reached. Further work is needed to evaluate these findings and to support any radiological assessment of the marine environment surrounding Amchitka. Based on geohydrological testing and modeling, leakage from the Amchitka Underground Nuclear Tests is projected to occur to the marine environment (Claassen, 1978; Fenske, 1972; Wheatcraft, 1995).     

THE ROLE OF MINIMUM VARIANCE THEORY IN DEFINING THE REGIME CHARACTERISTICS OF THE LOWER NAMOI-GWYDIR DRAINAGE BASIN1

ABSTRACT: While minimum variance theory appears to offer an explanation for the hydraulic behaviour and regularity among channel systems it is not entirely successful in predicting the regime of a channel system. In the case of the Namoi-Gwydir river system the hydraulic variables velocity, depth, width, slope, friction, and shear appear to govern the behaviour and, hence regime of the channels. The significance of sediment load in determining regime could not be assessed.     

美国可持续的建筑服务:承包商在绿色建筑中的作用

成功的可持续建筑设计和建造过程的特点是合作的和跨科学的,然而在很多情况下,实现建设服务并未被看作是可持续的建筑项目的设计和交工的一个必要步骤,承包商常常仅仅被看作是建筑服务的经纪人,他们只是简单地遵循图纸和技术要求,并且只是通过建筑现场再循环环计划对可持续的建筑工程做出贡献,宾夕法尼亚州立大学和实现优秀建筑的合作伙伴(PACE)正在联合进行关于在成功地交付高性能的可持续建筑物过程中建筑管理伙伴作用的研究,其目的是确定对可持续的建筑项目起决定性作用的过程和决策中建造服务工作的价值,和为参与可持续的设计和建筑过程的合作单位开发先进的技术.     

Fine-scale patchiness and genetic heterogeneity of recruits of the corallivorous gastropod Drupella cornus

The size-frequency distributions and genetic composition of recruits of the corallivorous snail Drupella cornus (Röding, 1798) were examined in outbreak populations collected from Ningaloo Reef, Western Australia in August 1990. The recruits are found in groups on digitate Acropora spp. corals. Among coral colonies, mean lengths of recruits in our samples ranged from <9 to 22 mm, but the snails within a group were generally similar in size. Despite the fact that D. cornus has planktonic larvae, there were marked genetic differences between groups of recruits on different coral colonies. The relatively large genetic subdivision among groups of recruits within sites over distances <80 m was measured as a value of F _ST (standardized variance in allelic frequencies) of 0.044. This was three times the value from comparisons of pooled samples of recruits from areas up to 119 km apart, and six times as great at the genetic subdivision among populations of adults over a distance of 180 km. Much of the genetic heterogeneity among groups of recruits is associated with mean size of the snails. Taken together, the size-frequency distributions and the genetic differences indicate that recruits within the same coral colony shared a common history of settlement, suggesting a cohesiveness of groups of larvae. Although the mechanisms for this patchiness are not understood, one implication is that studies of size-frequency distributions and genetic composition of cohorts of D. cornus must treat the group, not the individual snail, as the unit of replication.     

Rate of dissolution of diatom silica walls in seawater

The solubility and dissolution rate of silica were investigated using cell walls prepared from two species of diatoms, Thalassiosira decipiens and Rhizosolenia hebetata forma semispina. The solubility (C _e) as a function of temperature (T, °C) can be described by the following equation: C _e (SiO₂ mg l^-1)=67.8+1.48 T. The first-order reaction equation without the surface-area term was considered to be reasonable in estimating the dissolution rate of biogenic silica in the ocean system. The rate of dissolution differed not only from one species to another but also from one portion to another portion of the same wall. The rate constants of dissolution in the ocean system were estimated to range in the order of from 10^-1 to 10^-9 per hour.     

Experimental assessment of ecological and phenotypic factors affecting male mating success and polyandry in northern watersnakes, Nerodia sipedon

To resolve conflicting field observations regarding the action of sexual selection, we used breeding experiments and paternity analysis of the 927 resulting offspring to assess how male size, condition, tail length, genetic similarity to the female, and variation in operational sex ratio (OSR) affected male reproductive success and the incidence of polyandry in northern watersnakes (Nerodia sipedon). Only size affected male mating success. Large males were more successful, but only when male size varied substantially and competition among males was intense (i.e., male-biased OSR). The conditional nature of the size advantage may explain why studies of free-living watersnakes have produced inconsistent results regarding the relationship between male size and mating success. Size differences between males did not affect the proportion of offspring each male sired within multiply sired litters. We found positive size-assortative mating, but only when the OSR was female biased, suggesting that smaller males had improved access to females when competition among males was reduced, but that competition with larger males still restricted mating opportunities of small males to less preferred, smaller females. Most litters (58%) were multiply sired and larger females were more likely to produce multiply sired litters, similar to free-living watersnakes. There was no association between the incidence of multiple paternity and OSR, however, suggesting that polyandry is not simply a function of opportunity, with females passively waiting for males to court them.