Environmental and Ecological Statistics - The theory underlying line transect and variable circular plot surveys—distance sampling—begins with an assumed detectability function, giving... 相似文献
The federally listed desert tortoise (Gopherus agassizii) is currently monitored using distance sampling to estimate population densities. Distance sampling, as with many other techniques for estimating population density, assumes that it is possible to quantify the proportion of animals available to be counted in any census. Because desert tortoises spend much of their life in burrows, and the proportion of tortoises in burrows at any time can be extremely variable, this assumption is difficult to meet. This proportion of animals available to be counted is used as a correction factor (g0) in distance sampling and has been estimated from daily censuses of small populations of tortoises (6-12 individuals). These censuses are costly and produce imprecise estimates of go due to small sample sizes. We used data on tortoise activity from a large (N = 150) experimental population to model activity as a function of the biophysical attributes of the environment, but these models did not improve the precision of estimates from the focal populations. Thus, to evaluate how much of the variance in tortoise activity is apparently not predictable, we assessed whether activity on any particular day can predict activity on subsequent days with essentially identical environmental conditions. Tortoise activity was only weakly correlated on consecutive days, indicating that behavior was not repeatable or consistent among days with similar physical environments. 相似文献
Technically, forestry projects have thepotential to contribute significantly tothe mitigation of global warming, but manysuch projects may not be economicallyattractive at current estimates of carbon(C) prices. Forest C is, in a sense, a newcommodity that must be measured toacceptable standards for the commodity toexist. This will require that credible Cmeasuring and monitoring procedures be inplace. The amount of sequestered C that canbe claimed by a project is normallyestimated based on sampling a number ofsmall plots, and the precision of thisestimate depends on the number of plotssampled and on the spatial variability ofthe site. Measuring C can be expensive andhence it is important to select anefficient C-monitoring strategy to makeprojects competitive in the C market. Thispaper presents a method to determinewhether a forestry project will benefitfrom C trading, and to find the optimalmanagement strategy in terms of forestcycle length and C-monitoring strategyA model of an Acacia mangiumplantation in southern Sumatra, Indonesiais used to show that forestry projects canbe economically attractive under a range ofconditions, provided that the project islarge enough to absorb fixed costs.Modeling results indicate that between 15and 38 Mg of Certified Emission Reductions(CERs) per hectare can be captured by thesimulated plantation under optimalmanagement, with optimality defined asmaximizing the present value of profitsobtained from timber and C. The optimalcycle length ranged from 12 to 16 years andthe optimal number of sample plots rangedfrom 0 to 30. Costs of C monitoring (inpresent-value terms) were estimated to bebetween 0.45 (Mg C)-1 to 2.11 (MgC)-1 depending on the spatialvariability of biomass, the variable costsof C monitoring and the discount rate. 相似文献
Aim: The aim of this study was to synthesize published qualitative studies to identify older adults' preferences for communication about driving with health care providers.
Background: Health care providers play a key role in addressing driving safety and driving retirement with older adults, but conversations about driving can be difficult. Guides exist for family members and providers, but to date less is known about the types of communication and messages older drivers want from their health care providers.
Design: A qualitative metasynthesis of studies published on or before October 10, 2014, in databases (PubMed, CINAHL, PsycINFO, and Web of Science) and grey literature was performed.
Review Methods: Twenty-two published studies representing 518 older adult drivers met the following inclusion criteria: the study (1) was about driving; (2) involved older drivers; (3) was qualitative (rather than quantitative or mixed methods); and (4) contained information on older drivers' perspectives about communication with health care providers.
Results: We identified 5 major themes regarding older adults' communication preferences: (1) driving discussions are emotionally charged; (2) context matters; (3) providers are trusted and viewed as authority figures; (4) communication should occur over a period of time rather than suddenly; and (5) older adults desire agency in the decision to stop driving.
Conclusion: Various stakeholders involved in older driver safety should consider older drivers' perspectives regarding discussions about driving. Health care providers can respect and empower older drivers—and support their family members—through tactful communication about driving safety and mobility transitions during the life course. 相似文献
This paper presents an overview on air pollution assessments of new fossil energy technologies for baseload electric generating plants. The discussion is oriented towards those who must understand the broad issues affecting the design and performance of such power plants. It is motivated by the potential air pollution problems caused by the near doubling of coal use projected for the next 15 years. The paper first reviews the applicable emissions performance standards for these plants, as well as predictions of likely future standards needed to protect the environment. The conclusion is reached that significantly tighter emissions standards will apply in the future. Next, the cost, emissions performance, and development status of the three major technology groups for coal fired baseload plants are reviewed. It is observed that while all of the technologies can meet the current standards, only the Baseline plant with Advanced Control Technology can meet future standards, without unreasonable increases in electrical generation costs. Furthermore, since Advanced Direct Combustion Technologies and Fuel Conversion Technologies are in very early stages of development, only the Baseline plant with Advanced Control Technology will be available to the utilities in the near term. This is because it will be evolved from the current commercial Baseline Technology. Hence, it is concluded that the utilities will use mainly the Baseline coal fired plant with Advanced Control Technology to protect the environment for the next 15-20 years. 相似文献