Changes in extreme events and the potential impacts on human health

Extreme weather and climate-related events affect human health by causing death, injury, and illness, as well as having large socioeconomic impacts. Climate change has caused changes in extreme event frequency, intensity, and geographic distribution, and will continue to be a driver for change in the future. Some of these events include heat waves, droughts, wildfires, dust storms, flooding rains, coastal flooding, storm surges, and hurricanes. The pathways connecting extreme events to health outcomes and economic losses can be diverse and complex. The difficulty in predicting these relationships comes from the local societal and environmental factors that affect disease burden. More information is needed about the impacts of climate change on public health and economies to effectively plan for and adapt to climate change. This paper describes some of the ways extreme events are changing and provides examples of the potential impacts on human health and infrastructure. It also identifies key research gaps to be addressed to improve the resilience of public health to extreme events in the future.

Implications: Extreme weather and climate events affect human health by causing death, injury, and illness, as well as having large socioeconomic impacts. Climate change has caused changes in extreme event frequency, intensity, and geographic distribution, and will continue to be a driver for change in the future. Some of these events include heat waves, droughts, wildfires, flooding rains, coastal flooding, surges, and hurricanes. The pathways connecting extreme events to health outcomes and economic losses can be diverse and complex. The difficulty in predicting these relationships comes from the local societal and environmental factors that affect disease burden.     

Elevation change and the vulnerability of Rhode Island (USA) salt marshes to sea-level rise

Salt marshes persist within the intertidal zone when marsh elevation gains are commensurate with rates of sea-level rise (SLR). Monitoring changes in marsh elevation in concert with tidal water levels is therefore an effective way to determine if salt marshes are keeping pace with SLR over time. Surface elevation tables (SETs) are a common method for collecting precise data on marsh elevation change. Southern New England is a hot spot for SLR, but few SET elevation change datasets are available for the region. Our study synthesizes elevation change data collected from 1999 to 2015 from a network of SET stations throughout Rhode Island (RI). These data are compared to accretion and water level data from the same time period to estimate shallow subsidence and determine whether marshes are tracking SLR. Salt marsh elevation increased at a mean overall rate of 1.40 mm year^?1 and ranged from ?0.33 to 3.36 mm year^?1 at individual stations. Shallow subsidence dampened elevation gain in mid-Narragansett Bay marshes, but in other areas of coastal RI, subsurface processes may augment surface accretion. In all cases, marsh elevation gain was exceeded by the 5.26 mm year^?1 rate of increase in sea levels during the study period. Our study provides the first SET elevation change data from RI and shows that most RI marshes are not keeping pace with short- or long-term rates of SLR. It also lends support to previous research that implicates SLR as a primary driver of recent changes to southern New England salt marshes.     

Suggested Guidelines for Use of Avian Species as Biomonitors

An animal’s suitability as a biomonitor of environmental change can be determined by biological, reproductive and ecological characteristics determined at the class, order and species level. The animal’s habitat where the research is to be performed and the form, function and structure of the environmental change being studied within that habitat also determines suitability. Non-threatened populations of large, non-migratory, long-lived, seasonally-breeding tertiary avian predators, whose dietary preferences are narrow and known, can be useful as monitors of environmental chemical contaminants. If chemicals are being monitored, a quantifiable endpoint effect must be demonstrated in the species, or a similar species under experimental laboratory conditions. Logistical and economic issues as well as public and regulatory authority acceptance should also be considered when assessing the suitability of a species as a biomonitor.     

Using SWAT to Model Streamflow in Two River Basins With Ground and Satellite Precipitation Data1

Abstract: Both ground rain gauge and remotely sensed precipitation (Next Generation Weather Radar – NEXRAD Stage III) data have been used to support spatially distributed hydrological modeling. This study is unique in that it utilizes and compares the performance of National Weather Service (NWS) rain gauge, NEXRAD Stage III, and Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) 3B42 (Version 6) data for the hydrological modeling of the Middle Nueces River Watershed in South Texas and Middle Rio Grande Watershed in South Texas and northern Mexico. The hydrologic model chosen for this study is the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), which is a comprehensive, physical‐based tool that models watershed hydrology and water quality within stream reaches. Minor adjustments to selected model parameters were applied to make parameter values more realistic based on results from previous studies. In both watersheds, NEXRAD Stage III data yields results with low mass balance error between simulated and actual streamflow (±13%) and high monthly Nash‐Sutcliffe efficiency coefficients (NS > 0.60) for both calibration (July 1, 2003 to December 31, 2006) and validation (2007) periods. In the Middle Rio Grande Watershed NEXRAD Stage III data also yield robust daily results (time averaged over a three‐day period) with NS values of (0.60‐0.88). TRMM 3B42 data generate simulations for the Middle Rio Grande Watershed of variable qualtiy (MBE = +13 to ?16%; NS = 0.38‐0.94; RMSE = 0.07‐0.65), but greatly overestimates streamflow during the calibration period in the Middle Nueces Watershed. During the calibration period use of NWS rain gauge data does not generate acceptable simulations in both watersheds. Significantly, our study is the first to successfully demonstrate the utility of satellite‐estimated precipitation (TRMM 3B42) in supporting hydrologic modeling with SWAT; thereby, potentially extending the realm (between 50°N and 50°S) where remotely sensed precipitation data can support hydrologic modeling outside of regions that have modern, ground‐based radar networks (i.e., much of the third world).     

Solvent-Free Polymerization of l-Aspartic Acid in the Presence of d-Sorbitol to Obtain Water Soluble or Network Copolymers

l-Aspartic acid was thermally polymerized in the presence of d-sorbitol with the goal of synthesizing new, higher molecular weight water soluble and absorbent copolymers. No reaction occurred when aspartic acid alone was heated at 170 or 200 °C. In contrast, heating sorbitol and aspartic acid neat or with ammonium hydroxide gave a mixture of water soluble and insoluble copolymers of polysuccinimide and sorbitol. In the presence of phosphoric acid, sorbitol aspartate ester copolymers having both water soluble and highly swollen gel components were formed. These results indicate that polysaccharides such as sorbitol can readily react to form copolymer ester/amides with aspartic acid and such copolymers may have utility as biodegradable water soluble and swellable polyampholytes.     

Remediation of a chlorinated aromatic hydrocarbon in water by photoelectrocatalysis

Photoelectrocatalysis driven by visible light offers a new and potentially powerful technology for the remediation of water contaminated by organo-xenobiotics. In this study, the performance of a visible light-driven photoelectrocatalytic (PEC) batch reactor, applying a tungsten trioxide (WO₃) photoelectrode, to degrade the model pollutant 2,4-dichlorophenol (2,4-DCP) was monitored both by toxicological assessment (biosensing) and chemical analysis. The bacterial biosensor used to assess the presence of toxicity of the parent molecule and its breakdown products was a multicopy plasmid lux-marked E. coli HB101 pUCD607. The bacterial biosensor traced the removal of 2,4-DCP, and in some case, its toxicity response suggests the identification of transient toxic intermediates. The loss of the parent molecule, 2,4-DCP determined by HPLC, corresponded to the recorded photocurrents. Photoelectrocatalysis offers considerable potential for the remediation of chlorinated hydrocarbons, and that the biosensor based toxicity results identified likely compatibility of this technology with conventional, biological wastewater treatment.     

Catalyzing Collaboration: Wisconsin’s Agency-Initiated Basin Partnerships

Experience with collaborative approaches to natural resource and environmental management has grown substantially over the past 20 years, and multi-interest, shared-resources initiatives have become prevalent in the United States and internationally. Although often viewed as “grass-roots” and locally initiated, governmental participants are crucial to the success of collaborative efforts, and important questions remain regarding their appropriate roles, including roles in partnership initiation. In the midst of growing governmental support for collaborative approaches in the mid-1990s, the primary natural resource and environmental management agency in Wisconsin (USA) attempted to generate a statewide system of self-sustaining, collaborative partnerships, organized around the state’s river basin boundaries. The agency expected the partnerships to enhance participation by stakeholders, leverage additional resources, and help move the agency toward more integrated and ecosystem-based resource management initiatives. Most of the basin partnerships did form and function, but ten years after this initiative, the agency has moved away from these partnerships and half have disbanded. Those that remain active have changed, but continue to work closely with agency staff. Those no longer functioning lacked clear focus, were dependent upon agency leadership, or could not overcome issues of scale. This article outlines the context for state support of collaborative initiatives and explores Wisconsin’s experience with basin partnerships by discussing their formation and reviewing governmental roles in partnerships’ emergence and change. Wisconsin’s experience suggests benefits from agency support and agency responsiveness to partnership opportunities, but cautions about expectations for initiating general-purpose partnerships.     

Effects of Water Withdrawal From Ice‐Covered Lakes on Oxygen,Temperature, and Fish1

Abstract: In northern regions, large volumes of water are needed for activities such as winter road construction. Such withdrawals, particularly from small lakes, can reduce oxygen concentrations and water levels, potentially affecting aquatic organisms. Withdrawal limits have been developed by regulatory agencies, but are largely theoretical. Water withdrawal thresholds were tested in two small lakes by removing 10% and 20% of their respective under‐ice volumes and comparing oxygen parameters, temperature, over‐wintering habitat, and northern pike (Esox lucius) abundance to reference conditions. Because of a milder winter, oxygen parameters were elevated in reference lakes in the period following withdrawal compared to the prewithdrawal period. The 10% withdrawal resulted in a ?0.2 m shift in the oxygen concentration profile at 4 mg/l in that lake, but had no effect on total volume‐weighted oxygen, or volume of over‐wintering habitat. In contrast, the 20% withdrawal caused 0.7 m reduction in the oxygen concentration profile at 4 mg/l compared to the previous year, a 26% decline in the volume‐weighted oxygen concentration, and a 23% reduction in the volume of over‐wintering habitat compared to prewithdrawal conditions. Water temperatures were slightly (≤ 10%) colder in the upper strata in the year following the withdrawal in both withdrawal and reference lakes. Northern pike abundance was not impacted by water withdrawals in either of the lakes. The results of this study show that the effects of water withdrawal on the parameters investigated reflected the characteristics of the lakes, and would therefore be expected to vary from lake to lake. Policy development to mitigate impacts must therefore reflect the site‐specific nature of water withdrawal.     

The value of coastal wetlands for hurricane protection

Coastal wetlands reduce the damaging effects of hurricanes on coastal communities. A regression model using 34 major US hurricanes since 1980 with the natural log of damage per unit gross domestic product in the hurricane swath as the dependent variable and the natural logs of wind speed and wetland area in the swath as the independent variables was highly significant and explained 60% of the variation in relative damages. A loss of 1 ha of wetland in the model corresponded to an average USD 33,000 (median = USD 5000) increase in storm damage from specific storms. Using this relationship, and taking into account the annual probability of hits by hurricanes of varying intensities, we mapped the annual value of coastal wetlands by 1 km x 1 km pixel and by state. The annual value ranged from USD 250 to USD 51,000 ha(-1) yr(-1), with a mean of USD 8240 ha(-1) yr(-1) (median = USD 3230 ha(-1) yr(-1)) significantly larger than previous estimates. Coastal wetlands in the US were estimated to currently provide USD 23.2 billion yr(-1) in storm protection services. Coastal wetlands function as valuable, selfmaintaining "horizontal levees" for storm protection, and also provide a host of other ecosystem services that vertical levees do not. Their restoration and preservation is an extremely cost-effective strategy for society.     

Sorption of nonpolar neutral organic compounds to humic acid-coated sands: contributions of organic and mineral components

The contributions of organic matter and the mineral surface to the overall sorption of six nonpolar neutral organic compounds (1,2,4-trichlorobenzene, 1,4-dichlorobenzene, chlorobenzene, m-xylene, toluene, benzene) by five humic acid (HA)-coated sands with different fractions of organic carbon (f(oc)) ranging from 0.024% to 0.154% were evaluated on the basis of measured data and four different sorption models. Sorption of all six sorbates to both uncoated and heated sands was nearly linear due to the coverage of hydrophilic mineral surface with the ordered vicinal water region. Sorption of all six sorbates to the HA-coated sands was also essentially linear, and resulted from a combination of sorption to both organic matter and the mineral surface, with the dominance of either contribution depending on the properties of the sorbents (e.g., f(oc)) and the sorbates (e.g., K(ow)). A proposed two-component model for sorption including blocking effect was appropriate for quantifying the contributions of organic matter and the mineral surface to the overall sorption. However, conventional sorption models considering the contributions of both organic matter and the mineral surface provided essentially as good agreement between predicted and measured distribution coefficients as the more complicated, two-component model for sorption that takes into account mineral surface blocking by HA.