Proximate causes of natal dispersal in female yellow-bellied marmots, Marmota flaviventris

We investigated factors influencing natal dispersal in 231 female yearling yellow-bellied marmots (Marmota flaviventris) using comprehensive analysis of 10 years (1983-1993) of radiotelemetry and 37 years (1963-1999) of capture-mark-recapture data. Only individuals whose dispersal status was verified, primarily by radiotelemetry, were considered. Univariate analyses revealed that six of the 24 variables we studied significantly influenced dispersal: dispersal was less likely when the mother was present, amicable behavior with the mother and play behavior were more frequent, and spatial overlap was greater with the mother, with matriline females, and with other yearling females. Using both univariate and multivariate analyses, we tested several hypotheses proposed as proximate causes of dispersal. We rejected inbreeding avoidance, population density, body size, social intolerance, and kin competition as factors influencing dispersal. Instead, our results indicate that kin cooperation, expressed via cohesive behaviors and with a focus on the mother, influenced dispersal by promoting philopatry. Kin cooperation may be an underappreciated factor influencing dispersal in both social and nonsocial species.     

Directional changes in the species composition of a tropical forest

Long-term studies have revealed that the structure and dynamics of many tropical forests are changing, but the causes and consequences of these changes remain debated. To learn more about the forces driving changes within tropical forests, we investigated shifts in tree species composition over the past 25 years within the 50-ha Forest Dynamics Plot on Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama, and examined how observed patterns relate to predictions of (1) random population fluctuations, (2) carbon fertilization, (3) succession from past disturbance, (4) recovery from an extreme El Ni?o drought at the start of the study period, and (5) long-term climate change. We found that there have been consistent and directional changes in the tree species composition. These shifts have led to increased relative representations of drought-tolerant species as determined by the species' occurrence both across a gradient of soil moisture within BCI and across a wider precipitation gradient from a dry forest near the Pacific coast of Panama to a wet forest near its Caribbean coast. These nonrandom changes cannot be explained by stochastic fluctuations or carbon fertilization. They may be the legacy of the El Ni?o drought, or alternatively, potentially reflect increased aridity due to long-term climate change. By investigating compositional changes, we increased not only our understanding of the ecology of tropical forests and their responses to large-scale disturbances, but also our ability to predict how future global change will impact some of the critical services provided by these important ecosystems.     

Modelling the Transport of Oil–Mineral-Aggregates (OMAs) in the Marine Environment and Assessment of Their Potential Risks

Spilled oil can interact with suspended particles in marine environments and form oil–mineral aggregates (OMAs). Some OMAs with densities higher than seawater density can settle to the seedbed to pose potential risks to benthic organisms. To understand the transport and fate of oil associated with OMAs and evaluate their potential risks, an integrated hydrodynamic and fate/transport model has been used in a hypothetical case study of 1,000 tonnes of South Louisiana oil spilled in the Bristol Channel. Several scenarios have been simulated under different wave and current conditions. By using OMA properties derived from laboratory measurements reported in literature, it has been found that the risk to the benthos is unlikely for the two hypothetical cases with strong currents, but it is likely for the wave only (weak current) case. The effects of other factors such as OMA properties and sediment concentration were also examined in terms of their effects on the transport process and risks.     

Comparison of two dynamic measurement methods of odor and odorant emission rates from freshly dewatered biosolids

Odor and odorant emission rates from freshly dewatered biosolids in a dewatering building of a Water Reclamation Plant (WRP) are measured using the EPA flux chamber and wind tunnel methods. Experimental results are compared statistically to test whether the two methods result in similar emission rates when experiments are performed under field conditions. To the best of our knowledge the literature is void of studies comparing the two methods indoors. In this paper the two methods are compared indoors where the wind velocity and air exchange rate are pertinent field conditions and can be measured. The difference between emission rates of odor and hydrogen sulfide measured with the two methods is not statistically significant (P values: 0.505 for odor, 0.130 for H(2)S). It is concluded that both methods can be used to estimate source emissions but selection of the most effective or efficient method depends on prevailing environmental conditions. The wind tunnel is appropriate for outdoor environments where wind effects on source emissions are more pronounced than indoors. The EPA flux chamber depends on the air exchange rate of the chamber, which simulates corresponding conditions of the indoor environment under investigation and is recommended for estimation of indoor pollution sources.     

Individual-based modeling of flooding and salinity effects on a coastal swamp forest

Coastal swamps are among the rapidly vanishing wetland habitats in Louisiana. Increased flooding, nutrient and sediment deprivation, and salt-water intrusion have been implicated as probable causes of the decline of coastal swamps. We developed a two-species individual-based forest succession model to compare the growth and composition of a cypress-tupelo swamp under various combinations of flooding intensity and salinity levels, using historical time-series of stage and salinity data as inputs. Our model simulates forest succession over 500 years by representing the growth, mortality, and reproduction of individual Taxodium distichum (baldcypress) and Nyssa aquatica (water tupelo) trees in a 1-km² spatial grid of 10 m × 10 m cells that vary in water levels and salinity through differences in elevation. We independently adjusted the elevations of each cell to obtain different grid-wide mean elevations and standard deviations of elevation; this affected the temporal and spatial pattern of flooding. We calibrated the model by adjusting selected parameters until averaged basal area, stem density and wood production rates under two different mean elevations (partially versus highly flooded) were qualitatively similar to comparable values reported for swamps in the literature. Corroboration involved comparing model predictions to four well-monitored contrasting habitat sites within the Maurepas Basin, Louisiana, USA. Model predictions of both species combined showed the same patterns among sites as the data, but the model overestimated wood production and the dominance of T. distichum. Exploratory simulations predicted that increased flooding leads to swamps with reduced basal areas and stem densities, while increased salinity resulted in lower basal areas at low salinity concentration (∼1-3 psu) and complete tree mortality at higher salinity concentrations (∼2-6 psu). Our model can provide insight into the succession dynamics of coastal swamps and information for the effective design of restoration actions.     

Impacts of Climate Change on Extreme Precipitation Events Over Flamingo Tropicana Watershed1

Abstract: Climate change, particularly the projected changes to precipitation patterns, is likely to affect runoff both regionally and temporally. Extreme rainfall events are expected to become more intense in the future in arid urban areas and this will likely lead to higher streamflow. Through hydrological modeling, this article simulates an urban basin response to the most intense storm under anthropogenic climate change conditions. This study performs an event‐based simulation for shorter duration storms in the Flamingo Tropicana (FT) watershed in Las Vegas, Nevada. An extreme storm, defined as a 100‐year return period storm, is selected from historical records and perturbed to future climatic conditions with respect to multimodel multiscenario (A1B, A2, B1) bias corrected and spatially disaggregated data from the World Climate Research Programme's (WCRP's) database. The cumulative annual precipitation for each 30‐year period shows a continuous decrease from 2011 to 2099; however, the summer convective storms, which are considered as extreme storms for the study area, are expected to be more intense in future. Extreme storm events show larger changes in streamflow under different climate scenarios and time periods. The simulated peak streamflow and total runoff volume shows an increase from 40% to more than 150% (during 2041‐2099) for different climate scenarios. This type of analysis can help evaluate the vulnerability of existing flood control system and flood control policies.     

Assessing Calibration Uncertainty and Automation for Estimating Evapotranspiration from Agricultural Areas Using METRIC

Agricultural irrigation accounts for a large fraction of the total water use in the western United States. The Mapping Evapotranspiration at high Resolution with Internalized Calibration (METRIC) remote sensing energy balance model is being used to estimate historical agricultural water use in western Nevada to evaluate basin‐wide water budgets. Each METRIC evapotranspiration (ET) estimate must be calibrated by a trained user, which requires some iterative time investment and results in variation in ET estimates between users. An automated calibration algorithm for the METRIC model was designed to generate ET estimates comparable to those from trained users by mimicking the manual calibration process. Automated calibration allows for rapid generation of METRIC ET estimates with minimal manual intervention, as well as uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the model. The variation in ET estimates generated by the automated calibration algorithm was found to be similar to the variation in manual ET estimates. Results indicate that uncertainty was highest for fields with low ET levels and lowest for fields with high ET levels, with a seasonal mean uncertainty of approximately 5% for all fields. In addition, in a blind comparison, automated daily and seasonal ET estimates compared well with flux tower measurement ET data at multiple sites. Automated methods can generate first‐order ET estimates that are similar to time intensive manual efforts with less time investment.     

Diploid male production — a significant colony mortality factor in the fire ant Solenopsis invicta (Hymenoptera: Formicidae)

Summary Two forms of the fire ant, Solenopsis invicta, occur in North America; the monogyne form has colonies with a single functional queen while the polygyne form has colonies containing many functional queens. Field surveys indicate that diploid males are common in natural populations of the polygyne form but absent from monogyne populations, in contrast to laboratory data showing that similar frequencies of queens producing such males occur in the two types of populations. Our results show that mature monogyne colonies with adopted queens rear diploid males in the laboratory, so it is unlikely that the absence of these males from monogyne colonies in the field is due to discrimination against them by monogyne workers. On the other hand, incipient monogyne colonies that produce diploid males exhibit significantly higher mortality and significantly slower rates of growth (Figs. 1–3) than colonies producing workers only. These results suggest that the observed distribution of male diploidy in S. invicta can be explained by differential mortality of diploid male producing colonies of the two forms, with such colonies of the monogyne form experiencing 100% mortality early in development. The mortality differences due to this factor are shown to be related to the different social structures and modes of colony founding characterizing the two forms.     

The lay system in commercial fisheries: Origin and implications

In most commercial fisheries, the crew is remunerated via some form of the lay system. Under the lay system, the crew is paid with a share of revenues or a share of revenues less costs. Naturally, the presence and the functioning of the lay system are well known and accepted as one of fishery's important institutions. Compared with share contracts in agriculture, however, the lay in fisheries has garnered relatively little research. This article has two goals. First, we provide an explanation for the existence of the lay system as an incentive mechanism to alleviate a potential team agency problem. This explanation of the lay system explains anomalies, such as the presence of wages in some fisheries, that are odds with the theory of pure risk sharing. Second we show the implications of the lay system for econometric modeling of fisheries and for understanding firm behavior. In general we conclude that models that fail to account explicitly for the incentive properties of shares are likely to provide poor representations of fishing firm behavior. The thrust of the paper is that the formation and working of the lay system are a fundamental force in fisheries influencing firm behavior and research results in a way that has been largely ignored.     

EVALUATING RELIABILITY OF STORAGE SCHEMES WITH DENDROHYDROLOGY AND THE HURST PHENOMENON1

ABSTRACT: The mean annual flow at a damsite during a water project yield study of several decades may differ considerably from the mean flow of several hundred years. The frequency of the most severe droughts of record may be much different than apparent from the historical record as well. Dendrohydrology and the Hurst Phenomenon provide means to evaluate the validity of the study period for project reliability analysis. The most severe hydrologic drought (1928–1934) affecting the watersheds of the Sacramento River and tributaries in Northern California during the 75-year period 1906–1980 was also the worst drought in 421 years (1560–1980). In contrast, the most severe drought (1945–1951) in the Santa Ynez River watershed in Santa Barbara County, California, during the 62-year period 1918–1979 was the ninth worst drought in 443 years (1537–1979). Thus, in one case the drought risk indicated by the dendrohydrologic time series would actually be less; in the other, actual risk would be greater than perceived from the historical record. In the absence of a dendrohydrologic prehistoric time series, Hurst Phenomena would have provided clues to this outcome. Hurstian plotting of the accumulated deviation from the mean for long time series facilitates observation of the wet-dry regime of the examples and identification of characteristics that should be accounted for in water development planning.