Representing general theoretical concepts in structural equation models: the role of composite variables

Structural equation modeling (SEM) holds the promise of providing natural scientists the capacity to evaluate complex multivariate hypotheses about ecological systems. Building on its predecessors, path analysis and factor analysis, SEM allows for the incorporation of both observed and unobserved (latent) variables into theoretically-based probabilistic models. In this paper we discuss the interface between theory and data in SEM and the use of an additional variable type, the composite. In simple terms, composite variables specify the influences of collections of other variables and can be helpful in modeling heterogeneous concepts of the sort commonly of interest to ecologists. While long recognized as a potentially important element of SEM, composite variables have received very limited use, in part because of a lack of theoretical consideration, but also because of difficulties that arise in parameter estimation when using conventional solution procedures. In this paper we present a framework for discussing composites and demonstrate how the use of partially-reduced-form models can help to overcome some of the parameter estimation and evaluation problems associated with models containing composites. Diagnostic procedures for evaluating the most appropriate and effective use of composites are illustrated with an example from the ecological literature. It is argued that an ability to incorporate composite variables into structural equation models may be particularly valuable in the study of natural systems, where concepts are frequently multifaceted and the influence of suites of variables are often of interest.     

Concerns, dispositions and behaviors of aggressive drivers: what do self-identified aggressive drivers believe about traffic safety?

INTRODUCTION: The purpose of this investigation was to identify beliefs, driving personality dispositions, and behaviors that distinguish self-defined aggressive drivers from non-aggressive drivers. METHOD: Telephone surveys were used to identify self-reported aggressive drivers (n=305) who were compared to non-aggressive drivers (n=1,715) concerning their beliefs, driving behaviors, and self-described driving dispositions. RESULTS: Aggressive drivers, compared to non-aggressive drivers, were less concerned about speeding, aggressive driving, and cell phone use while driving, yet were more likely to have had an encounter with another aggressive driver. They were also more likely to report that they had driven when they knew they had too much to drink, yet they felt less likely that they would be stopped by the police. CONCLUSION: Aggressive drivers display many dispositions that define them as high risk drivers and public information/motivational campaigns alone will likely be ineffective with this group of drivers. Strategies that combine visible enforcement with widespread publicity campaigns appear to be necessary.     

Ecological risk assessments of endocrine disrupting organotin compounds using marine neogastropods in Hong Kong

As active ingredients of anti-fouling paints that are widely used on ship hulls, organotin compounds, in particular tributyltin (TBT), are well-known endocrine disruptors causing sex changes in marine organisms and widespread in coastal waters and sediments worldwide. In this study, a comprehensive ecological risk assessment (ERA) of organotins was conducted in Hong Kong waters through determining the imposex status, sex ratio and tissue burdens of these compounds in the neogastropods, Thais clavigera and Thais luteostoma collected from 29 coastal sites. We also investigated the historical trend of organotin effects on these gastropods, and performed a probabilistic ERA based on tissue burden of TBT in the animals. Our results demonstrated that imposex indices were positively correlated with the body burden of organotins in the gastropods. Across all sites, the sex ratio (female:male) decreased significantly with increasing imposex levels or tissue burden of organotins, implying that such pollutants can result in a male-biased population, potentially leading to local extinction in extreme cases. Based on the ERA, 5.4% of all populations of T. clavigera are at risk due to exposure to TBT; the risks include growth inhibition, impairment of immune functions and reduced fitness. Seriously impacted areas included Aberdeen, Repulse Bay, Butterfly Beach, Mui Wo and Ha Mei Wan. A comparison with historical data revealed that there had been some improvement in the areas with low marine traffic, and distant from the major harbour/port. This could partly be due to the restriction on the use of TBT on small vessels (<25m in length) since 1992. Nevertheless, the organotin contamination still remains severe in areas with high marine traffic or adjacent to large harbours/ports. In particular, the situation in the northeastern waters of Hong Kong has been getting worst since 1996 that is probably associated with the rapid development of the cargo container port at Yantian in China.     

Comparison of continuous and filter-based carbon measurements at the Fresno supersite

Results from six continuous and semicontinuous black carbon (BC) and elemental carbon (EC) measurement methods are compared for ambient samples collected from December 2003 through November 2004 at the Fresno Supersite in California. Instruments included a multi-angle absorption photometer (MAAP; lambda = 670 nm); a dual-wavelength (lambda = 370 and 880 nm) aethalometer; seven-color (lambda = 370, 470, 520, 590, 660, 880, and 950 nm) aethalometers; the Sunset Laboratory carbon aerosol analysis field instrument; a photoacoustic light absorption analyzer (lambda = 1047 nm); and the R&P 5400 ambient carbon particulate monitor. All of these acquired BC or EC measurements over periods of 1 min to 1 hr. Twenty-four-hour integrated filter samples were also acquired and analyzed by the Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) thermal/optical reflectance carbon analysis protocol. Site-specific mass absorption efficiencies estimated by comparing light absorption with IMPROVE EC concentrations were 5.5 m2/g for the MAAP, 10 m2/g for the aethalometer at a wavelength of 880 nm, and 2.3 m2/g for the photoacoustic analyzer; these differed from the default efficiencies of 6.5, 16.6, and 5 m2/g, respectively. Scaling absorption by inverse wavelength did not provide equivalent light absorption coefficients among the instruments for the Fresno aerosol measurements. Ratios of light absorption at 370 nm to those at 880 nm from the aethalometer were nearly twice as high in winter as in summer. This is consistent with wintertime contributions from vehicle exhaust and from residential wood combustion, which is believed to absorb more shorter-wavelength light. To reconcile BC and EC measurements obtained by different methods, a better understanding is needed of the wavelength dependence of light-absorption and mass-absorption efficiencies and how they vary with different aerosol composition.     

Performance and diagnostic evaluation of ozone predictions by the Eta-Community Multiscale Air Quality Forecast System during the 2002 New England Air Quality Study

A real-time air quality forecasting system (Eta-Community Multiscale Air Quality [CMAQ] model suite) has been developed by linking the National Centers for Environmental Estimation Eta model to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) CMAQ model. This work presents results from the application of the Eta-CMAQ modeling system for forecasting ozone (O3) over the Northeastern United States during the 2002 New England Air Quality Study (NEAQS). Spatial and temporal performance of the Eta-CMAQ model for O3 was evaluated by comparison with observations from the EPA Air Quality System (AQS) network. This study also examines the ability of the model to simulate the processes governing the distributions of tropospheric O3 on the basis of the intensive datasets obtained at the four Atmospheric Investigation, Regional Modeling, Analysis, and Estimation (AIRMAP) and Harvard Forest (HF) surface sites. The episode analysis reveals that the model captured the buildup of O3 concentrations over the northeastern domain from August 11 and reproduced the spatial distributions of observed O3 very well for the daytime (8:00 p.m.) of both August 8 and 12 with most of normalized mean bias (NMB) within +/- 20%. The model reproduced 53.3% of the observed hourly O3 within a factor of 1.5 with NMB of 29.7% and normalized mean error of 46.9% at the 342 AQS sites. The comparison of modeled and observed lidar O3 vertical profiles shows that whereas the model reproduced the observed vertical structure, it tended to overestimate at higher altitude. The model reproduced 64-77% of observed NO2 photolysis rate values within a factor of 1.5 at the AIRMAP sites. At the HF site, comparison of modeled and observed O3/nitrogen oxide (NOx) ratios suggests that the site is mainly under strongly NOx-sensitive conditions (>53%). It was found that the modeled lower limits of the O3 production efficiency values (inferred from O3-CO correlation) are close to the observations.     

Factors influencing the concentration of volatile fatty acids, ammonia, and other nutrients in stored liquid pig manure

In order to minimize odor and manage nutrients in liquid pig manure we need to be able to predict what operational practices most influence the concentrations of volatile fatty acids (VFAs), ammonium nitrogen (NH(4)(+)-N), and other nutrients present in the manure. To determine this, we collected manure from 15 pig operations in southwestern Ontario in the fall of 2001 and 2002 and spring of 2002 and 2003. The manure was stored in concrete tanks at all operations. Manure from finishing pigs had the highest concentration of VFAs, NH(4)(+)-N, and other nutrients, followed by manure from mixed operations, and then manure from sow operations. The average concentration of total VFAs and NH(4)(+)-N in finishing pig manure was 166 mM compared with 36 and 99 mM, respectively, in sow manure. Total N, P, and K were 2.3, 2.5, and 1.7 times greater, respectively, in finishing pig compared with sow manure. There was no seasonal or year to year variation in amount. The diet of the pigs, use of feed additives or antibiotics, location of tanks, and whether the tanks were covered or mixed were not significant factors contributing to the difference in manure chemistry. The main reason for the differences between the three types of manure was manure dilution. The average dry matter content of finishing pig manure was 4.5 times that of sow manure. This was due to larger density of pigs in finishing compared with sow operations, less manure storage capacity per pig for finishing compared with sow operations, and more wash water being used for sow operations.     

Coal dust particle size survey of US mines

The National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) and the Mine Safety and Health Administration (MSHA) conducted a joint survey to determine the range of coal particle sizes found in dust samples collected from intake airways of US coal mines. The last comprehensive survey of this type was performed in the 1920s. The size of the coal dust is relevant to the amount of rock dust required to inert the coal dust, with more rock dust needed to inert finer sizes of coal dust.

Dust samples were collected by MSHA inspectors from several mines in each of MSHA's 10 bituminous Coal Mine Safety and Health Districts. Samples were normally collected in several intakes at each mine. The laboratory analysis procedures included acid leaching of the sample to remove the limestone rock dust, sonic sieving to determine the dust size, and low-temperature ashing of the sieved fractions to correct for any remaining incombustible matter. The results indicate that particle sizes of mine coal dust in intake airways are finer than those measured in the 1920s. This finer size coal dust in intake airways would require more incombustible matter to be effectively inerted than the 65% incombustible specified in current regulations.     

Microbial Communities in Composite Biofilms Participating in the Degradation of PCB

A moorland soil site polluted with PCB showed a high diversity ofmetabolically active bacteria. Beside frequent types of 16S rRNAsequences similar to those of the species ofSphingomonasand the Acidobacterium phylum an unusual high number ofsequences from the genus Burkholderia were found. Burkholderia was also the main genus in isolates enriched onbiphenyl or various chlorobenzoates. In microcosm experimentssterilized surfaces exposed to PCB polluted soil always showed thepresence of clay aggregates formed by bacteria attached to thesubstratum. The bacteria use the PCB loaded clay colloids astransport medium for the water insoluble substrate to get accessto the carbon source. This is a novel mechanism of how bacteria dealwith hydrophobic substrates.     

Estimated effects of climate change on flood vulnerability of U.S. bridges

We assessed the potential impacts of increased river flooding from climate change on bridges in the continental United States. Daily precipitation statistics from four climate models and three greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios (A2, A1B, and B1) were used to capture a range of potential changes in climate. Using changes in maximum daily precipitation, we estimated changes to the peak flow rates for the 100-year return period for 2,097 watersheds. These estimates were then combined with information from the National Bridge Inventory database to estimate changes to bridge scour vulnerability. The results indicate that there may be significant potential risks to bridges in the United States from increased precipitation intensities. Approximately 129,000 bridges were found to be currently deficient. Tens of thousands to more than 100,000 bridges could be vulnerable to increased river flows. Results by region vary considerably. In general, more bridges in eastern areas are vulnerable than those in western areas. The highest GHG emissions scenarios result in the largest number of bridges being at risk. The costs of adapting vulnerable bridges to avoid increased damage associated with climate change vary from approximately $140 to $250 billion through the 21st century. If these costs were spread out evenly over the century, the annual costs would be several billion dollars. The costs of protecting the bridges against climate change risks could be reduced by approximately 30% if existing deficient bridges are improved with riprap.