IMPROVED ESTIMATION OF ECOLOGICAL EFFECTS USING AN EMPIRICAL BAYES METHOD1

ABSTRACT: The US Environmental Protection Agency is currently developing guidance for assessing environmental impact using biocriteria within a regulatory framework. Of particular interest are statistical methods of design and analysis to test for impairment of biological assemblages in stream ecosystems associated with water pollution. Current recommendations emphasize frequentist statistical methods with the problem expressed as one of classical hypothesis testing. An empirical Bayes approach is proposed here as an alternative and applied for multi-site inference. The advantages of an empirical Bayes approach, in particular the substantive contribution of collateral information from nearby sites, are discussed in contrast to traditional methods that employ site-specific information only. The approach is illustrated in an application concerning trends in the Index of Biotic Integrity (IHI) for the Scioto River in Ohio.     

Explicitness of consequence information in warnings

Four experiments were carried out to assess effects of product warning explicitness on purchase preferences and caution in use. Explicitness was defined as the specificity or detail with which potential injury consequences were described. All experiments employed a paradigm in which warnings varying in explicitness were described for familiar products. Subjects rated various perceptions of the products, purchase preferences, and intent to act cautiously in using the product. Results indicated that more explicit warnings were associated with greater levels of perceived dangerousness, hazard understanding, injury severity, and manufacturers' concern. While explicit warnings were also associated with an increased intent to act cautiously in using products, no clear relationship was found between explicitness and purchase preferences. It is recommended that product warnings should be explicit regarding injury consequences, especially where injuries may be severe. Given such information, product users, particularly those less familiar with a product, are more likely to exercise greater caution during use. Further, manufacturers' concern that explicit warnings may negatively impact sales appears to be unwarranted.     

Characterization and pilot‐scale studies for chemical oxidation remediation of fractured shale

The distribution of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in fractured shale overlain by thin (< 10 feet) overburden at the Watervliet Arsenal near Albany, New York, was initially determined by sampling water from the fracture network using packer systems in boreholes and also using conventional monitoring wells. Furthermore, short‐term pumping and injection tests were conducted and the boreholes were logged using a variety of geophysical and hydrophysical tools. Tetrachloroethene is the dominant VOC in the groundwater, with lesser concentrations of trichloroethene and degradation products (cis‐1,2‐dichloroethene, trans‐1,2‐dichloroethene, and vinyl chloride). The vertical VOC distributions in the rock matrix were obtained from continuous‐cored holes from which small rock samples, collected at many depths between 18 and 150 feet below ground surface, were analyzed. The rock core VOC concentrations were determined by methanol extraction of crushed rock followed by direct methanol injection onto a gas chromatograph and subsequent estimation of rock porewater VOC concentrations. The rock core data support the concept that diffusion‐driven mass transfer has caused nearly all the VOC mass initially present in the fractures to now reside in the rock matrix, which has a porosity three or four orders of magnitude larger than the bulk fracture porosity. The results of the site characterization indicate that an effective site investigation strategy in fractured shale must include characterization of both the fracture and matrix contaminant distribution. These results also indicate that the most favorable remediation technologies for this fractured shale are those that will destroy VOCs in the rock matrix, particularly contaminants in the sorbed phase, and also destroy the VOC mass in the fractures including both dissolved and immiscible phases. The site characterization resulted in the selection of potassium permanganate for an in situ chemical oxidation pilot study. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Real-time PCR with molecular beacons provides a highly accurate assay for detection of Tay-Sachs alleles in single cells

The results presented here provide the first single-cell genetic assay for Tay-Sachs disease based on real-time PCR. Individual lymphoblasts were lysed with an optimized lysis buffer and assayed using one pair of primers that amplifies both the wild type and 1278 + TATC Tay-Sachs alleles. The resulting amplicons were detected in real time with two molecular beacons each with a different colored fluorochrome. The kinetics of amplicon accumulation generate objective criteria by which to evaluate the validity of each reaction. The assay had an overall utility of 95%, based on the detection of at least one signal in 235 of the 248 attempted tests and an efficiency of 97%, as 7 of the 235 samples were excluded from further analysis for objective quantitative reasons. The accuracy of the assay was 99.1%, because 228 of 230 samples gave signals consistent with the genotype of the cells. Only two of the 135 heterozygous samples were allele drop-outs, a rate far lower than previously reported for single-cell Tay-Sachs assays using conventional methods of PCR. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Great Decoupling: Why Minimizing Humanity’s Dependence on the Environment May Not Be Cause for Celebration

Characterizations of the Anthropocene often indicate both the challenges that our new epoch poses for human well-being and a sense of loss that comes from a compromised environment. In this paper I explore a deeper problem underpinning both issues, namely, that decoupling humanity from the world with which we are familiar compromises human flourishing. The environmental conditions characteristic of the Anthropocene do so, I claim, by compromising flourishing on two fronts. First, the comparatively novel conditions of the Anthropocene risk rupturing our narratives, putting at risk our sense of self and connections to familiar environments. Second, by undermining the connections between our environmental background and the sense of well-being conditioned by that background our ability to exercise options that constitute a recognizable good life are compromised. This paper argues that to the extent humanity is decoupled from their environments humans are not only less able to access opportunities our understanding of who we are, our identities, and our capacity to make sense of the world around us through those identities is compromised. I conclude that the Anthropocene does more than challenge our ability to utilize resources, it challenges our understanding of who we are in the world.     

Trust in Sources of Soil and Water Quality Information: Implications for Environmental Outreach and Education

Public trust in organizations focused on improving environmental quality is important for increasing awareness and changing behaviors that have water quality implications. Few studies have addressed trust in soil and water quality information sources, particularly for both agricultural and nonagricultural respondents of the same watersheds. Surveys in 19 watersheds across five states in the Midwest assessed trust in, and familiarity with, soil and water quality information sources. Overall, respondents most trusted University Extension, Soil and Water Conservation Districts, and the Natural Resource Conservation Service, while lawn care companies, environmental groups, and land trusts were less trusted. Significant differences in trusted sources were found between watersheds, and between agricultural and nonagricultural respondents across and within watersheds. Among agricultural respondents, a clear relationship exists between familiarity and trust; as familiarity with an organization increases, so too does level of trust. This relationship is less clear‐cut for nonagricultural respondents in this region. We highlight implications of these findings for soil and water quality outreach efforts.     

Alternative mating behaviors of the queen polymorphic ant <Emphasis Type="Italic">Temnothorax longispinosus</Emphasis>

Mating behaviors of ants fall into two categories: female calling, in which a female alate releases pheromones that attract males, and male swarming, in which large male aggregations attract females. Female calling is common in species with queens that return to their natal nest to found colonies dependently after mating, while male swarming is common in species with queens that disperse to found independently. In some species that display both founding strategies, a queen-size polymorphism has evolved in which dependent-founding queens are smaller than independent-founding queens. Dependent founding is likely difficult if gynes (virgin queens) are mating in distant swarms. Therefore, a queen may adopt one or the other mating strategy based on its size and founding behavior. We investigated mating behaviors in the queen-polymorphic ant, Temnothorax longispinosus. Observations in laboratory mating arenas indicated that small gynes exhibited significantly lower flight activity than large gynes. Both forms mated in male swarms, and neither form exhibited female calling. The reduced flight activity of the small morph may facilitate returning to the natal nest after mating, provided the mating swarm is located nearby. Therefore, alternative colony-founding behaviors may be possible without the evolution of female-calling behavior; however, the reduced flight activity of small morphs may require that mating swarms are not distant from the natal nest.     

Ozone Air Quality Models Prepared Discussion

The APCA Critical Review entitled “Ozone Air Quality Models” was presented by John H. Seinfeld, Louis E. Nohl Professor and Executive Officer for Chemical Engineering at the California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, California. Dr. Seinfeld presented his review at the 81st APCA Annual Meeting & Exhibition, held in Dallas, Texas in June 1988. The Critical Review paper, published in the May 1988 issue of JAPCA, highlighted recent advances and continuing problem areas in photochemical air quality modeling. Prepared discussions and floor comments presented during the Critical Review session in Dallas are published here, along with additional comments and closing remarks by Dr. Seinfeld. Howard M. Ellis, Chairman of the Critical Review Subcommittee of the Publications Committee, served as moderator of the 1988 APCA Critical Review session.     

CRC-APRAC Vehicle Emissions Modeling Workshop

A conference was held on October 30-31,1990 to examine discrepancies between the output of vehicle emission factor models (MOBILE and EMFAC), field and laboratory measurements of vehicle emissions, and observed ratios of pollutants in urban atmospheres dominated by vehicle emissions. There was a general consensus that significant discrepancies exist and that these discrepancies must be resolved. A number of research recommendations were made as to how models and model inputs could be improved, and what additional laboratory and field work should be conducted.