A hierarchical model for spatial capture-recapture data

Estimating density is a fundamental objective of many animal population studies. Application of methods for estimating population size from ostensibly closed populations is widespread, but ineffective for estimating absolute density because most populations are subject to short-term movements or so-called temporary emigration. This phenomenon invalidates the resulting estimates because the effective sample area is unknown. A number of methods involving the adjustment of estimates based on heuristic considerations are in widespread use. In this paper, a hierarchical model of spatially indexed capture-recapture data is proposed for sampling based on area searches of spatial sample units subject to uniform sampling intensity. The hierarchical model contains explicit models for the distribution of individuals and their movements, in addition to an observation model that is conditional on the location of individuals during sampling. Bayesian analysis of the hierarchical model is achieved by the use of data augmentation, which allows for a straightforward implementation in the freely available software WinBUGS. We present results of a simulation study that was carried out to evaluate the operating characteristics of the Bayesian estimator under variable densities and movement patterns of individuals. An application of the model is presented for survey data on the flat-tailed horned lizard (Phrynosoma mcallii) in Arizona, USA.     

Chemical and colloidal analyses of natural seep water collected from the exploratory studies facility inside Yucca Mountain,Nevada, USA

Yucca Mountain is being considered as a geological repository for the USA’s spent nuclear fuel and high-level nuclear waste. Numerous groundwater seeps appeared during March 2005 within the exploratory studies facility (ESF), a tunnel excavated in the mountain. Because of the relevance to radionuclide transport and unsaturated zone-modeling studies, we analyzed the seep samples for major anions and cations, rare earth elements, and colloids. Major ion species and elemental concentrations in seep samples reflect interaction of the water with the volcanic rock and secondary calcites. Elemental fractograms from flow-injection field-flow fractionation ICP–MS scans detected Br, Ca, Cl, Cu, Fe, I, Mg, Si, Sr, W, and U at void fractions, suggesting they may be present in the form of dissolved anions. Colloids approximately 10 nm in hydrodynamic diameter, possibly calcite, were also present in the seepage samples. Geochemical calculations indicate, however, these may be an artifact (not present in the groundwater) which arose because of loss of CO₂ during sample collection and storage.     

Response of balanced network models to large-scale perturbation: Implications for evaluating the role of small pelagics in the Gulf of Maine

Exploring the response of an ecosystem, and subsequent tradeoffs among its biological community, to human perturbations remains a key challenge for the implementation of an ecosystem approaches to fisheries (EAF). To address this and related issues, we developed two network (or energy budget) models, Ecopath and Econetwrk, for the Gulf of Maine ecosystem. These models included 31 network “nodes” or biomass state variables across a broad range of trophic levels, with the present emphasis to particularly elucidate the role of small pelagics. After initial network balancing, various perturbation scenarios were evaluated to explore how potential changes to different fish, fisheries and lower trophic levels can affect model outputs. Categorically across all scenarios and interpretations thereof, there was minimal change at the second trophic levels and most of the “rebalancing” after a perturbation occurred via alteration of the diet matrix. Yet the model results from perturbations to a balanced energy budget fall into one of three categories. First, some model results were intuitive and in obvious agreement with established ecological and fishing theory. Second, some model results were counter-intuitive upon initial observation, seemingly contradictory to known ecological and fishing theory; but upon further examination the results were explainable given the constraints of an equilibrium energy budget. Finally, some results were counter-intuitive and difficult to reconcile with theory or further examination of equilibrium constraints. A detailed accounting of biomass flows for example scenarios explores some of the non-intuitive results more rigorously. Collectively these results imply a need to carefully track biomass flows and results of any given perturbation and to critically evaluate the conditions under which a new equilibrium is obtained for these types of models, which has implications for dynamic simulations based off of them. Given these caveats, the role of small pelagics as a prominent component of this ecosystem remains a robust conclusion. We discuss how one might use this approach in the context of further developing an EAF, recognizing that a more holistic, integrated perspective will be required as we continue to evaluate tradeoffs among marine biological communities.     

Handedness, Hand Roles, and Hand Injuries at Work

Hand injuries form a significant proportion of all workplace injuries. They are costly to treat, and lead to significant loss of time at work. This paper has two parts. First, there is a review of the literature that discusses prevalence of hand injury, and the significance of hand roles and handedness in industrial injuries. The second part represents an initial attempt to document the roles of the two hands in a particular industry, the metal manufacturing industry. The purpose of this survey of 30 different work stations in seven different industrial plants was to see whether there is a significant bias in terms of movement requirements for one or the other hand, leading to a possible differential risk of injury for the left and right hands. Overall, there was no clear bias favoring the right hand in activities assigned to the hands in seven different movement categories (MTM). However, the location of emergency controls favored the right hand unequivocally. The implications of biases favoring the left/right hand for safety of machine operation are discussed in the light of current findings on left/right hand performance in right- and lefthanders.     

Large nonlethal effects of an invasive invertebrate predator on zooplankton population growth rate

We conducted a study to determine the contribution of lethal and nonlethal effects to a predator's net effect on a prey's population growth rate in a natural setting. We focused on the effects of an invasive invertebrate predator, Bythotrephes longimanus, on zooplankton prey populations in Lakes Michigan and Erie. Field data taken at multiple dates and locations in both systems indicated that the prey species Daphnia mendotae, Daphnia retrocurva, and Bosmina longirostris inhabited deeper portions of the water column as Bythotrephes biomass increased, possibly as an avoidance response to predation. This induced migration reduces predation risk but also can reduce birth rate due to exposure to cooler temperatures. We estimated the nonlethal (i.e., resulting from reduced birth rate) and lethal (i.e., consumptive) effects of Bythotrephes on D. mendotae and Bosmina longirostris. These estimates used diel field survey data of the vertical gradient of zooplankton prey density, Bythotrephes density, light intensity, and temperature with growth and predation rate models derived from laboratory studies. Results indicate that nonlethal effects played a substantial role in the net effect of Bythotrephes on several prey population growth rates in the field, with nonlethal effects on the same order of magnitude as or greater (up to 10-fold) than lethal effects. Our results further indicate that invasive species can have strong nonlethal, behaviorally based effects, despite short evolutionary coexistence with prey species.     

Grazers, producer stoichiometry, and the light : nutrient hypothesis revisited

The stoichiometric light:nutrient hypothesis (LNH) links the relative supplies of key resources with the nutrient content of tissues of producers. This resource-driven variation in producer stoichiometry, in turn, can mediate the efficiency of grazing. Typically, discussions of the LNH attribute this resource-stoichiometry link to bottom-up effects of light and phosphorus, which are mediated through producer physiology. Emphasis on bottom-up effects implies that grazers must consume food of quality solely determined by resource supply to ecosystems (i.e., they eat what they are served). Here, we expand upon this largely bottom-up interpretation with evidence from pond surveys, a mesocosm experiment, and a model. Data from shallow ponds showed the "LNH pattern" (positive correlation of an index of light : phosphorus supply with algal carbon : phosphorus content). However, algal carbon : phosphorus content also declined as zooplankton biomass increased in the ponds. The experiment and model confirmed that this latter correlation was partially caused by the various bottom-up and top-down roles of grazers: the LNH pattern emerged only in treatments with crustacean grazers, not those without them. Furthermore, model and experiment clarified that another bottom-up factor, natural covariation of nitrogen : phosphorus ratios with light : phosphorus supply (as seen in ponds), does not likely contribute to the LNH pattern. Finally, the experiment produced correlations between shifts in species composition of algae, partially driven by grazing effects of crustaceans, and algal stoichiometry. These shifts in species composition might shape stoichiometric response of producer assemblages to resource supply and grazing, but their consequences remain largely unexplored. Thus, this study accentuated the importance of grazing for the LNH; de-emphasized a potentially confounding, bottom-up factor (covarying nitrogen : phosphorus supply); and highlighted an avenue for future research for the LNH (grazer-mediated shifts in producer composition).     

Prediction of extinction in plants: interaction of extrinsic threats and life history traits

The global extinction of species proceeds through the erosion of local populations. Using a 60-year time series of annual sighting records of plant species, we studied the correlates of local extinction risk associated with a risk of species extinction in the Park Grass Experiment where plants received long-term exposure to nutrient enrichment, soil acidification, and reductions in habitat size. We used multivariate linear models to assess how extrinsic threats and life history traits influence extinction risk. We investigated effects of four extrinsic threats (nitrogen enrichment, productivity, acidification, and plot size) as well as 11 life history traits (month of earliest flowering, flowering duration, stress tolerance, ruderalness [plant species' ability to cope with habitat disturbance], plant height, diaspore mass, seed bank, life form, dispersal mode, apomixis [the ability for a species to reproduce asexuall through seeds], and mating system). Extinction risk was not influenced by plant family. All of the 11 life history traits except life form and all threat variables influenced extinction risk but always via interactions which typically involved one threat variable and one life history trait. We detected comparatively few significant interactions between life history traits, and the interacting traits compensated for each other. These results suggest that simple predictions about extinction risk based on species' traits alone will often fail. In contrast, understanding the interactions between extrinsic threats and life history traits will allow us to make more accurate predictions of extinctions.     

State subsidies induce gray jays to accept greater danger: an ecologically rational response?

Models of strictly rational choice assume that decision-makers evaluate options on relevant dimensions, assign fixed values to options, and then make consistent choices based on these values. If so, recent experience would have no impact on preference. But, recent events change an animal’s state, and preference may change accordingly. We explore how state affects willingness to accept greater danger to obtain larger food rewards. We tested how a supplement in state (hoard size) impacts this willingness in gray jays (Perisoreus canadensis). When subsidized, most of the subjects increased their willingness to trade danger for food. Why would they become less cautious when their hoard was increased? Superficially, it might seem prudent to play it safer in response to a subsidy. But imagining fitness as a sigmoid function of state (hoard size) provides a tentative explanation for our counterintuitive finding. Above a threshold hoard size, a subsidy should weaken the willingness to accept extra danger. Incremental increases in state in the deceleratory phase yield smaller fitness gains, so it would pay to increase emphasis on safety after receiving a subsidy. But below this threshold, incremental increases in state in the acceleratory phase yield bigger fitness gains, and so it would pay to decrease emphasis on safety after receiving a subsidy. Most of our subjects’ choice behavior was, thus, plausibly consistent with the possibility that effective hoard size is considerably smaller than the total number of items stored. We speculate that this response may reflect an ecologically rational compensation for the inevitable loss of hoards via theft and rot.     

环境样品中杀菌剂的多残留分析

苯并咪唑类化合物(benzimidazoles)如涕必灵(thiabendazole)常作为杀菌剂普遍用在瓜果及农作物上．用液相色谱法分析这些物质比较困难：例如涕必灵,在硅胶基质的色谱柱上会发生严重的拖尾现象,酸性条件下尤为明显。涕必灵和多菌灵(carbendazim)在pH10的情况下使用XTerra MS C18色谱柱会得到较好的峰形,但在较高的pH值下,其它类型杀菌剂或杀虫剂可能不稳定,故难以用适合这些碱性杀菌剂的高pH值条件进行同时分析．