COMPARISON OF TWO AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELS FOR MONTHLY STREAM FLOW GENERATION1

ABSTRACT: Two autoregressive models for monthly stream flow generation are compared based on the reproduction of the historical record in terms of several important statistics such as the mean, standard deviation, skewness coefficient, correlation coefficient, and the reservoir storage components. In the comparison, both theoretical considerations and practical applications are employed to evaluate the performance of each model.     

Infant and Under-five Mortality in Bangladesh: Discriminant Analysis

Abstract

Bangladesh is on target for achieving the Millennium Development Goal 4 relating to infant and under-five mortality because of very rapid reduction in mortality in recent years. But this rate of reduction may be difficult to sustain and may hamper the achievement of Millennium Development Goal 4. Therefore, the main objective of this paper is to discuss and compare the different covariates of infant and under-five mortality in the context of overall country, urban and rural levels of Bangladesh using discriminant analysis. For this, the data are taken from Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey, 2004. In discriminant analysis, the stepwise procedure has been picked up and only the significant variables are ranked according to the rank of Wilk’s Lambda values. The canonical discriminant function coefficients (unstandardized and standardized) for the predictor variables have also been calculated. Both the results show that breastfeeding is the most important variable in discriminating the two groups of mothers, i.e., mothers experiencing to infant mortality or not and mothers experiencing to under-five mortality or not. The related results of discriminant function also indicate that the discriminant function is statistically significant and discriminates well. Therefore, improvements in the health system are essential for promoting the breastfeeding practices (both inclusive and exclusive), which may be the effective strategies to reach families and communities with targeted messages and information.     

Spore inhibition-based enzyme substrate assay for monitoring of aflatoxin M1 in milk

A spore germination-based concept and its transformation into a field level prototype for monitoring aflatoxin M₁ (AFM₁) in milk was developed. Initially, 15 strains of Bacillus spp. procured from different culture collection were screened for AFM₁ sensitivity using spot assay and marker strain showing inhibition at 0.5 ppb was selected based upon maximum zone of inhibition. The selected strain B. megaterium 2949 was further screened for different enzymes activities and subsequently its spores were produced to an extent of 73.13% ± 3.197% in newly developed sporulation medium containing beef extract (0.0075% ± 0.0004%), yeast extract (0.015% ± 0.001%), peptone (0.0375% ± 0.0016%), and sodium chloride (0.0375% ± 0.0018%). A spore germination-based concept/ assay was optimized by immobilizing spores in eppendorf with pretreated milk (80°C/15 min) containing germinant and chromogenic substrate followed by incubation at 37°C. The appearance of sky blue color within real time of 45 min indicated spores germination and release of specific marker enzyme such as acetyl esterase and its specific action on chromogenic substrate which demonstrates absence of AFM₁ in milk. However, if there was no color change, presence of AFM₁ at 0.5 ppb MRL was denoted by Codex. The developed concept on AFM₁ detection was validated and a correlation of 0.97 was established with AOAC approved Charm 6602 and ELISA at Codex MRL with minimal false positive and negative results. The cost effective test has potential application in dairy farms, manufacturing, and R&D units for routine monitoring of AFM₁ in milk.     

Risk analysis of an LPG storage facility in India

An assignment to carry out a hazard study and risk analysis of a gas processing complex has been described briefly, wherein well known procedures have been used to identify and investigate potential hazards. A method of avoiding unintentional overfilling of LPG storage tanks has been recommended, which utilizes the existing level control instruments.     

Sensitivity of veliger larvae of Mytilus edulis and mussel of various sizes to chlorination

The blue mussel Mytilus edulis is one of the dominant fouling organisms in cooling water systems. In this work, how veliger larvae and different size groups of the mussels responded against chlorine dosage was examined. Veliger larvae mortality was studied at different residual chlorine concentrations (0.05–0.5 mg L^?1), and it was found that a chlorine dose of 0.5 mg L^?1 is 4 times as effective as 0.05 mg L^?1 and twice as effective as 0.1 mg L^?1. Mortality of 100% for three size groups (1.4, 14, and 25 mm) and relative physiological activities of two size groups (14 and 25 mm) were observed. The exposure duration for 100% mortality of mussels decreased with the increasing residual chlorine concentration (0.1–4.0 mg L^?1). Mussel size was also found to be an important factor, considering that the continuation times for mussel mortality were 28 h for the 1.4 mm and 410 h for the 25 mm size groups. All size groups showed progressive reduction in physiological activities, such as oxygen consumption, foot activity, and byssus thread production with increasing chlorine dose (0.05–1.0 mg L^?1); the two data-sets were strongly correlated with each other. The results of this study should be of significance for optimizing the chlorine content, and minimize the environmental threat to industries where mussels are the dominant fouling organisms.     

The effects of temperature on decomposition and allelopathic phytotoxicity of boneseed litter

Decomposition of plant litter is a fundamental process in ecosystem function, carbon and nutrient cycling and, by extension, climate change. This study aimed to investigate the role of temperature on the decomposition of water soluble phenolics(WSP), carbon and soil nutrients in conjunction with the phytotoxicity dynamics of Chrysanthemoides monilifera subsp. monilifera(boneseed) litter. Treatments consisted of three factors including decomposition materials(litter alone, litter with soil and soil alone), decomposition periods and temperatures(5–15, 15–25and 25–35°C(night/day)). Leachates were collected on 0, 5, 10, 20, 40 and 60 th days to analyse physico-chemical parameters and phytotoxicity. Water soluble phenolics and dissolved organic carbon(DOC) increased with increasing temperature while nutrients like SO-24 and NO-13 decreased. Speed of germination, hypocotyl and radical length and weight of Lactuca sativa exposed to leachates were decreased with increasing decomposition temperature. All treatment components had significant effects on these parameters. There had a strong correlation between DOC and WSP, and WSP content of the leachates with radical length of test species. This study identified complex interactivity among temperature, WSP, DOC and soil nutrient dynamics of litter occupied soil and that these factors work together to influence phytotoxicity.     

Source identification, contamination status and health risk assessment of heavy metals from road dusts in Dhaka, Bangladesh

In this study, concentrations of Cr, Mn, Ni, Cu, Zn, Cd and Pb were determined in road dusts collected from different locations in Dhaka to assess source, contamination status and health risk. Energy-dispersive X-ray fluorescence spectroscopy and energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy were used to determine Cr, Mn, Ni, Cu, Zn, Cd and Pb and their mean concentrations were 162.27 ± 29.46, 721.18 ± 180.14, 35.65 ± 12.55, 104.56 ± 128.33, 515.32 ± 321.90, BDL, and 342.82 ± 591.20 mg/kg, respectively. Among the heavy metals, highest concentrations of Cu, Zn and Pb were found at urban sites-7 (municipal waste dumping) and 8 (medical waste incineration). Highest concentration of Cr followed by Cu and Zn was found at site-5 (Tejgaon, urban). Principal component analysis revealed that anthropogenic activities are the potential sources for Cr, Ni, Cu, Zn and Pb while earth crust for Mn. Pollution index and pollution load index results suggested that all the sites were contaminated and/or degraded by Cr, Cu, Zn and Pb except sites-9 (urban), 10 (sub-urban), 11 (rural) while sites-7 and 8 (urban) were extremely degraded. For noncarcinogenic health risk, hazard quotient values for dermal were higher compared to that of inhalation/ingestion. Though hazard index values were less than 1 at all the sites, these were at least one order of magnitude higher for children group than that of adult group, thus the children group may face more noncarcinogenic health risk at sites-7 and 8. Values of incremental lifetime cancer risk were from 10⁻⁹ to 10⁻¹¹ showed no carcinogenic health risk by road dusts contaminated with the heavy metals.