The financial additionality and viability of CDM projects allowing for uncertainty

Financial additionality and viability for Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects is commonly demonstrated through deterministic internal rate of return (IRR) benchmark analysis, supplemented with a sensitivity analysis. This method is vulnerable to assumptions on cash flows (including that from carbon credits) and is unable to differentiate grades of separation from the benchmark. This paper examines the financial additionality test and viability in the presence of cash flow uncertainty, where IRR becomes a random variable. A case example project involving wind power is exampled. It is seen that the boundaries between acceptance and rejection as a CDM project based on financial additionality and viability tests become blurred, leading to possible alternative conclusions. Comment is given on false positives and false negatives, in terms of acceptance and rejection of projects.     

Temporal change estimation of mercury concentrations in northern pike (Esox lucius L.) in Swedish lakes

Adequate temporal trend analysis of mercury (Hg) in freshwater ecosystems is critical to evaluate if actions from the human society have affected Hg concentrations ([Hg]) in fresh water biota. This study examined temporal change in [Hg] in Northern pike (Esox lucius L.) in Swedish freshwater lakes between 1994 and 2006. To achieve this were lake-specific, multiple-linear-regression models used to estimate pike [Hg], including indicator variables representing time and fish weight and their interactions. This approach permitted estimation of the direction and magnitude of temporal changes in 25 lakes selected from the Swedish national database on Hg in freshwater biota. A significant increase was found in 36% of the studied lakes with an average increase in pike [Hg] of 3.7 ± 6.7% per year that was found to be positively correlated with total organic carbon. For lakes with a significant temporal change the dataset was based on a mean of 30 fish, while for lakes with no temporal change it was based on a mean of 13 fish.     

Measurement, Collaborative Learning and Research for Sustainable Use of Ecosystem Services: Landscape Concepts and Europe as Laboratory

Policies at multiple levels pronounce the need to encompass both social and ecological systems in governance and management of natural capital in terms of resources and ecosystems. One approach to knowledge production and learning about landscapes as social–ecological systems is to compare multiple case studies consisting of large spaces and places. We first review the landscape concepts’ biophysical, anthropogenic, and intangible dimensions. Second, we exemplify how the different landscape concepts can be used to derive measurable variables for different sustainability indicators. Third, we review gradients in the three dimensions of the term landscape on the European continent, and propose to use them for the stratification of multiple case studies of social–ecological systems. We stress the benefits of the landscape concepts to measure sustainability, and how this can improve collaborative learning about development toward sustainability in social–ecological systems. Finally, analyses of multiple landscapes improve the understanding of context for governance and management.     

Body mass and parental decisions in the Antarctic petrel Thalassoica antarctica : how long should the parents guard the chick?

In Procellariiformes, the parents guard the chick after it has attained homeothermy. This strategy may reduce the probability that a small chick is taken by predators, but is costly as only one parent can forage at a time. The decision to leave the chick may therefore be a compromise between the chick's vulnerability to predators, the body condition of the parent on the nest and whether the foraging parent returns in time. We studied how the number of days that parents guarded the chick was related to the body mass of the parent at the nest and the time the foraging parent spent at sea in the Antarctic petrel Thalassoica antarctica. We also examined how the body mass of the parent on the nest and the duration of the foraging trips influenced the chicks' body condition at the end of the guarding period. When the foraging parent did not return to the nest in time to relieve its mate, the number of days the parent on the nest kept guarding the chick was positively related to its body mass on arrival in the colony. The number of days the foraging parent spent at sea was positively related to the body mass of its mate, but those that returned in time had a shorter stay at sea relative to their mate's body mass than those that did not return before their mate had left. Apparently, both the body mass of the parent at the nest and the ability of the foraging parent to adjust its stay at sea to the mate's body mass is important for the number of days the parents guard the chick and also the chick's body condition at this point. The inability to return to the nest before the mate has left may be the result of needing a minimum amount of time at sea to find food, or because some parents having low foraging success and therefore prolong their stay at sea. Received: 10 October 1997 / Accepted after revision: 14 March 1998     

Impact of Atmospheric Long Range Transport of Lead,Mercury and Cadmium on the Swedish Forest Environment

Emissions of Hg, Pb, and Cd to air aretransported over wide areas in Europe and deposited far awayfrom their sources. About 80% of the atmospheric depositionof these metals in south Sweden originate from emissions inother countries. As a result of the increased anthropogenicdeposition the concentrations of Hg, Pb, and Cd in the morlayer of forest soils have increased considerably, mainlyduring the 20th century. Although the atmosphericdeposition of these elements has declined during the mostrecent decades, the reduction of the input of Hg and Pb isnot sufficient to prevent a further accumulation. Theconcentrations of Hg and Pb are still increasing by ca. 0.5and ca. 0.2% annually in the surface layer of forest soils.In contrast, the Cd concentration is currentlydecreasing in a large part of Sweden as a result of bothdeposition decreases and enhanced leaching induced by soilacidification. The accumulation factors of Hg and Pb,especially in the forest topsoils of south Sweden, arealready above those at which adverse effects on soilbiological processes and organisms have been demonstrated instudies of gradients from local emission sources andlaboratory assessment. There are also indications of sucheffects at the current regional concentrations of Hg and Pbin mor layers from south Sweden, judging from observationsin field and laboratory studies. There is an apparent riskof Pb induced reduction in microbial activity over parts ofsouth Sweden. This might cause increased accumulation oforganic matter and a reduced availability of soil nutrients.At current concentrations of Hg in Swedish forest soils,effects similar to those of Pb are likely. Increasedconcentrations of these elements in organs of mammals andbirds have also been measured, though decreases have beendemonstrated in recent years, related to changes inatmospheric deposition rates. As a result of current andpast deposition in south Sweden, concentrations of Hg infish have increased about fivefold during the 20thcentury. This implies risks for human health, when fish frominland waters are used for food. Although the concentrationof Hg in fish has decreased ca. 20% during the last decade,probably as a result of the reduced deposition, the levelstill exceeds the general limit (0.5 mg kg^-1) in about half(ca. 40 000) of the Swedish lakes. In order to reduceconcentrations in fish to the level recommended, and avoidfurther accumulation of Hg in soils, the atmosphericdeposition has to be reduced to ca. 20% of the current deposition rate. This can only be achieved by international co-operation.     

Population exposure and mortality due to regional background PM in Europe – Long-term simulations of source region and shipping contributions

This paper presents the contribution to population exposure (PE) of regional background fine primary (PPM_2.5) and secondary inorganic (SIA) particulate matter and its impact on mortality in Europe during 1997–2003 calculated with a chemistry transport model. Contributions to concentrations and PE due to emissions from shipping, Western (WEU), Eastern (EEU), and Northern Europe are compared.WEU contributes about 40% to both PPM_2.5 and SIA concentrations, whereas the EEU contribution to PPM_2.5 is much higher (43% of total PPM_2.5) than to SIA (29% of total SIA). The population weighted average concentration (PWC) of PPM_2.5 is a factor of 2.3 higher than average (non-weighted) concentrations, whereas for SIA the PWC is only a factor 1.6 higher. This is due to PPM_2.5 concentrations having larger gradients and being relatively high over densely populated areas, whereas SIA is formed outside populated areas. WEU emissions contribute relatively more than EEU to PWC and mortality due to both PPM_2.5 and SIA in Europe.The number of premature deaths in Europe is estimated to 301 000 per year due to PPM_2.5 exposure and 245 000 due to SIA, despite 3.3 times higher average SIA concentrations. This is due to population weighting and assumed (and uncertain) higher relative risk of mortality for PPM_2.5 components (2.8 times higher RR for PPM_2.5). This study indicates that it might be more efficient, for the health of the European population, to decrease primary PM emissions (especially in WEU) than to decrease precursors of SIA, but more knowledge on the toxicity of different PM constituents is needed before firm conclusions can be drawn.     

新千年的能源

本文讨论了有关能源的思想观念的演变.20年前当几位作者开始携手合作研究能源时,人们一般是以发展的眼光、从供应方的角度来考虑能源问题,将注意力集中到消费趋势以及如何扩大供给以满足不断增长的需求上.这种方法在能源利用的环境影响、安全性和公平合理性方面的研究局限深深地困扰着他们.例如,大约有20亿人口经济条件有限,买不起现代能源,这严重限制了他们生活水平的提高.此外,能源还是造成环境问题的重要因素,其中包括室内空气污染、城市空气污染、酸化和全球气候变暧等.笔者认为,应当树立新的能源供给观念,使能源的供给方式有助于解决这些严重问题.笔者主张,能源必须成为推进可持续发展——经济上可行、以需要为导向、自力更生的能及无损于环境的发展——的工具,而且,应当将研究重点放在能源的终端用途上和能源供应的服务上.有助于实现可持续发展目标的能源技术方案也在本文进行了讨论.文中强调了制订和运用新型能源技术解决方案的必要性.笔者以巴西乙醇的利用为例,阐述了使发展中国家避免重复工业化国家所犯错误而在技术上实现跨越式发展的可能性.文中还重点介绍了在发展中国家引进先进技术过程中外国直接投资可能起到的作用,阐述了农村能源的近期和远期战略.最后,介绍了促进能源系统的发展,使之与可持续发展的步调一致并且支持可持续发展的相关政策.     

北极4个亚区的影响分析

在评价北极陆地生态系统影响时,人们常常强调物种和生态系统对环境变化响应的地理变化,这种变化往往与气候、生物多样性、植被带、生态系统结构和功能的南-北梯度相关联,可是,环境、生态系统的功能和结构上,以及环境史和当前气候变化的明显东-西变化显然也很重要.尽管一些地方变得温暖,但另一些地方却降温了,海洋、群岛和山脉等地理屏障的东西差异过去也对物种和植被带响应气候变化而改变分布区的能力产生了很大影响,同时,这些地理屏障为种群遗传分化和生物多样性热点区的形成提供了必要的隔离条件,这些屏障在未来气候变暖时,也将影响物种重新分布的能力.为了说明这种东西向的变化,同时也避免过分笼统或过于专业化,基于大尺度的天气和气候形成因素,北极气候影响评价项目确定了4个主要亚区.通过模拟与4个北极气候影响评价亚区有关的主要信息,导致物种分布区发生改变的地理屏障,特别是大陆的分布和海洋产生的隔离,明显会影响植被带的向北移动.对植被区向北移动的地理限制或者促进将影响将来碳的贮存和释放,以及生物圈与大气之间水和能量的交换.此外,气候变化使受威胁物种数量在各个亚区之间差别很大(白令海地区别尤其是热点),各个植被亚区重新分布的能力差异将影响每个区的生物多样性.总而言之,亚区分析表明,在整个北极地区水平上概括生态系统结构和功能的反应、物种的丧失,以及生物圈对气候系统的反馈的趋势是困难的,说明需要对北极陆地生态系统对于气候变化响应的空间变化性有深刻的认识.     

Flux estimates and sedimentation of polychlorinated naphthalenes in the northern part of the Baltic Sea

The concentrations and fluxes of polychlorinated naphthalenes (PCNs) were measured in surface sediments, and settling particulate matter collected in sediment traps, at two coastal and two offshore sampling stations in the Gulf of Bothnia, northern Baltic Sea, Sweden. The PCN concentrations (of tetra- to hepta-chloro congeners) in the surface sediments ranged from 0.27 to 2.8 ng/g dry weight and were of the same order of magnitude as background concentrations reported previously in Europe. The PCN fluxes in the southern basin (0.93 and 0.86 microg/m2/year) of the Gulf of Bothnia were higher than those in the northern basin (0.58 and 0.49 microg/m2/year); they were also higher near the coast than in the open sea. These PCN fluxes are similar to the pre-industrial levels determined from lake sediments in northwest England. The PCN homologue distribution changed from a relatively even distribution in samples collected near the coast, to TeCNs dominating in the samples from the open sea. This indicates that higher chlorinated PCNs are deposited and retained in sediments to a higher degree near the coast. The total annual deposition of PCNs in sediments in the Gulf of Bothnia was estimated to be 91 kg/year.