Future climate scenarios and rainfall--runoff modelling in the Upper Gallego catchment (Spain)

Global climate change may have large impacts on water supplies, drought or flood frequencies and magnitudes in local and regional hydrologic systems. Water authorities therefore rely on computer models for quantitative impact prediction. In this study we present kernel-based learning machine river flow models for the Upper Gallego catchment of the Ebro basin. Different learning machines were calibrated using daily gauge data. The models posed two major challenges: (1) estimation of the rainfall-runoff transfer function from the available time series is complicated by anthropogenic regulation and mountainous terrain and (2) the river flow model is weak when only climate data are used, but additional antecedent flow data seemed to lead to delayed peak flow estimation. These types of models, together with the presented downscaled climate scenarios, can be used for climate change impact assessment in the Gallego, which is important for the future management of the system.     

Temporal variability in particle-associated pesticide exposure in a temporarily open estuary, Western Cape, South Africa

This study assesses the risk of current-use pesticides in a temporarily open estuary in South Africa by developing probabilistic risk estimates. Particle-associated pesticides (chlorpyrifos, prothiofos, cypermethrin, fenvalerate, endosulfan and p,p-DDE) and physicochemical parameters (salinity, temperature, flow, and total organic content (TOC)) were measured in the Lourens River estuary (Western Cape) twice a month over a period of two years and equilibrium partitioning theory was applied to calculate concentrations of pesticides in the water. The 90th percentile concentrations of pesticides associated to suspended particles and the calculated concentrations in water were 34.0microg kg(-1) and 0.15microg l(-1) for prothiofos, 19.6microg kg(-1) and 0.45microg l(-1) for chlorpyrifos and 18.6microg kg(-1) and 0.16microg l(-1) for endosulfan. Highest average concentrations were found around the summer season due to higher application rates and as a result of the low flow during this season. Species sensitivity distribution indicated a 1.5-2.8 times higher toxicity (hazardous concentration HC5) for marine organisms compared to freshwater organisms. The calculated concentrations in the water exceeded all threshold values suggested by international water guidelines. Chlorpyrifos and endosulfan posed the highest acute risk to the Lourens River estuary. No sufficient toxicity data and threshold values were found for prothiofos.     

Effect of coumaphos on cholinesterase activity, hematology, and biochemical blood parameters of bovines in tropical regions of Mexico

To assess the effect of coumaphos [O-(3-chloro-4-methyl-2-oxo-2H-1-benzopyran-7-yl) O,O-diethyl phosphorothioate] exposure on physiological responses during bovine production, acetylcolinesterase (AChE) and butyrylcholinesterase (BuChE) activities were measured in whole blood, erythrocytes, and plasma of healthy male steers (Bos Taurus x Bos indicus) sprayed with coumaphos at a non-lethal dose of 1 mg kg(- 1) body weight per day once every 14 (in vivo group) or 21 days (southern and central groups). Coumaphos topically administered at 1 mg/kg body weight per day to cattle under normal management practices in tropical areas produced a significant inhibition in erythrocyte (RBC) AChE and BuAChE activities when compared to baseline levels. RBC-AChE activity for the in vivo group decreased 71.3% (P < 0.05) and BuChE activity 59.1% (P < 0.05); RBC-AChE activity decreased 55.1% (P < 0.05) (southern group) and 43.4% (P < 0.05) (central group). Compared to the control specimens, steers from in vivo, southern, and central groups after 150 days of exposure had lower (P < 0.05) leukocyte count, absolute lymphocyte, erythrocyte, and platelet counts. Decreases in RBC-AChE activities correlated with decreased lymphocyte (r = 1.000, p = 0.01), erythrocyte (r = 1.000, p = 0.003), and platelet counts (r = 0.841, p = 0.036). Significantly increased BUN levels (P < 0.05) correlated with the decrease in RBC-AChE activities (r = - 0.997, p = 0.047) and with the decrease in absolute red blood cell (r = - 0.883, p = 0.020) and lymphocyte (r = - 0.825, p = 0.043) counts; increased (P < 0.05) total plasma protein levels correlated with the decrease in RBC-AChE activities (r = -0.998, p = 0.043), absolute red blood cell (r = - 0.998, p = 0.040), lymphocyte (r = - 0.893, p = 0.017), and platelet (r = -0.855, p = 0.030) counts. The physiological responses correlated with the erythrocyte acetylcholinesterase inhibition could be considered as early indicators or warning responses of bovine exposures to organophosphorus pesticides (OPs).     

Assessing dimethoate contamination in temperate and tropical climates: potential use of biomarkers in bioassays with two chironomid species

This study was conducted to investigate the potential use of biomarkers in bioassays with chironomids to assess contamination by pesticides in temperate and tropical climates. Two species of midge were studied, the widespread Chironomus riparius and the tropical Kiefferulus calligaster (Kieffer, 1911). Preliminary studies included investigations of the effects of temperature on larval development and the influence of larval age on normal variability of cholinesterase (ChE) and glutathione S-transferase (GST) activities and protein content. In the second phase, the influence of two abiotic factors particularly important in tropical conditions (temperature and oxygen concentration) and of the organophosphorous (OP) insecticide dimethoate on biochemical and conventional endpoints was investigated. Results showed that K. calligaster is morphologically and physiologically similar to C. riparius and for both, the time of larval development decreases with the increase of temperature. Moreover, 3rd and 4th instars appeared to be the most suitable for biomarkers determinations. ChE activity seems to be valuable biomarker regarding temperature and dissolved oxygen (DO) variations, while some caution should be taken when using GST as an environmental biomarker, since it shows some dependence of these parameters. C. riparius was more sensitive to dimethoate than K. calligaster suggesting that the use of bioassays with the former species in tropical conditions may overestimate the toxicity of OP pesticides to autochthonous species. When testing sub-lethal effects of dimethoate to C. riparius, ChE activity showed to be a very sensitive parameter detecting significant effects at the lowest concentration that caused emergence delay of larvae, suggesting that it is an ecologically relevant parameter.     

A study of climate change and anthropogenic impacts in West Africa

BACKGROUND, AIM AND SCOPE: During the last decades ecological conditions in West Africa have dramatically changed. Very evident is the climate change, which has resulted in a southward shift of the climate zones, e.g. a spread of the desert (Sahara) into the Sahelian zone. After the drought period of the early 1970s and 1980s, livestock density increased resulting in an intensification of grazing pressure. This anthropogenous phenomenon leads to similar landscape changes as those caused by the climate. Only very few investigations exist on vegetation dynamics, climate changes and land use changes for the Sudanian zone. The paper presents data on changes of precipitation, of land use, of the geographical range of species, and of the composition of the flora, which have to be regarded as proofs of the sahelisation of large areas of the Sudanian zone. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Area of investigation: Burkina Faso. Precipitation data analysis: precipitation data from 67 stations; time series analysis and geo-statistical spatial interpolation. Analysis of land use change: Landsat satellite MSS and ETM+ data, acquired for two different dates between 1972 and 2001 analyzed by the software ERDAS/IMAGINE version 8.6 and ArcView 3.2 with the Spatial Analyst extension. Intensive ground truthing (160 training areas). Inventory of the flora: based on the data of the Herbarium Senckenbergianum (FR) in Frankfurt, Germany, and of the herbarium of the university of Ouagadougou (OUA), Burkina Faso, as well as on various investigations on the vegetation of Burkina Faso carried out in the years 1990 to 2005 by the team of the senior author. Life form analysis of the flora: based on the inventory of permanent plots. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: Precipitation: Remarkable latitudinal shift of isohyets towards the South translates to a general reduction of average rainfall in great parts of the country. The last decade (1990-1999) shows some improvement, however, the more humid conditions of the 1950's and 1960's are not yet established again. Landcover change: In the study region the extent of arable fields and young fallows increased during the last 30 years from 580 km(2) in 1972 to 2870 km(2) in 2001. This means an average land cover conversion rate of 0.9% per year for the 6 departments considered. Change of the distribution of Sahelian and Sudanian species: Several species, mentioned in older literature as strictly Sahelian, today also occur in the Sudanian zone. Parallel to the spread of former strictly Sahelian species into the Sudanian zone, some former Sahelo-Sudanian species have withdrawn from the Sahel. Changes of the life form spectra of the flora: Considering their life form spectra, the flora of heavily grazed and of protected areas in the Sudanian zone show great differences. On areas intensively grazed the percentage of therophytes is evidently higher than on protected areas. Just the opposite is true for the phanerophytes. Their percentage is higher on the protected area than on the grazed zones. At the first glance, it is obvious to link the changes in flora and vegetation with the climate changes that have occurred during the last five decades (decrease of annual precipitation). However, not only climatic conditions have changed, but also population has increased, the percentage of land intensively used for agriculture and pasturing has increased and the time for soil regeneration today is much shorter than it was some decades ago. Thus, the landscape of the Sudanian zone has become a more Sahelian character. A comparison of the flora of an intensively used area of the Sudanian zone with that of a protected area shows a remarkable change in the life form spectra. The spectrum of the intensively used area is almost identical with that of the typical Sahelian flora. This comparison shows that the anthropogenic influence plays a greater role in the sahelisation of the Sudanian zone than the climate change. CONCLUSION: Climate change and anthropogenic influence both, lead to a sahelisation of landscape and flora. Thus in many parts of the Sudanian zone of West Africa sahelisation phenomena will remain and even increase independently from the reestablishment of the more humid climate conditions of the 1950ies. RECOMMENDATIONS AND PERSPECTIVES: In order to maintain some parts of the characteristic Sudanian landscape with its characteristic flora and vegetation, the number and size of protected areas should be augmented. For all protected areas it has to be ensured, that protection is reality, i.e. respected an understood by local people, not only fiction. As long as the enlargement of intensively used areas continues the sahelisation of flora, vegetation and landscape will continue too.     

Agricultural opportunities to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions

Agriculture is a source for three primary greenhouse gases (GHGs): CO(2), CH(4), and N(2)O. It can also be a sink for CO(2) through C sequestration into biomass products and soil organic matter. We summarized the literature on GHG emissions and C sequestration, providing a perspective on how agriculture can reduce its GHG burden and how it can help to mitigate GHG emissions through conservation measures. Impacts of agricultural practices and systems on GHG emission are reviewed and potential trade-offs among potential mitigation options are discussed. Conservation practices that help prevent soil erosion, may also sequester soil C and enhance CH(4) consumption. Managing N to match crop needs can reduce N(2)O emission and avoid adverse impacts on water quality. Manipulating animal diet and manure management can reduce CH(4) and N(2)O emission from animal agriculture. All segments of agriculture have management options that can reduce agriculture's environmental footprint.     

Linking ground-water age and chemistry data along flow paths: implications for trends and transformations of nitrate and pesticides

Tracer-based ground-water ages, along with the concentrations of pesticides, nitrogen species, and other redox-active constituents, were used to evaluate the trends and transformations of agricultural chemicals along flow paths in diverse hydrogeologic settings. A range of conditions affecting the transformation of nitrate and pesticides (e.g., thickness of unsaturated zone, redox conditions) was examined at study sites in Georgia, North Carolina, Wisconsin, and California. Deethylatrazine (DEA), a transformation product of atrazine, was typically present at concentrations higher than those of atrazine at study sites with thick unsaturated zones but not at sites with thin unsaturated zones. Furthermore, the fraction of atrazine plus DEA that was present as DEA did not increase as a function of ground-water age. These findings suggest that atrazine degradation occurs primarily in the unsaturated zone with little or no degradation in the saturated zone. Similar observations were also made for metolachlor and alachlor. The fraction of the initial nitrate concentration found as excess N2 (N2 derived from denitrification) increased with ground-water age only at the North Carolina site, where oxic conditions were generally limited to the top 5 m of saturated thickness. Historical trends in fluxes to ground water were evaluated by relating the times of recharge of ground-water samples, estimated using chlorofluorocarbon concentrations, with concentrations of the parent compound at the time of recharge, estimated by summing the molar concentrations of the parent compound and its transformation products in the age-dated sample. Using this approach, nitrate concentrations were estimated to have increased markedly from 1960 to the present at all study sites. Trends in concentrations of atrazine, metolachlor, alachlor, and their degradates were related to the timing of introduction and use of these compounds. Degradates, and to a lesser extent parent compounds, were detected in ground water dating back to the time these compounds were introduced.     

Refinery evaluation of optical imaging to locate fugitive emissions

Fugitive emissions account for approximately 50% of total hydrocarbon emissions from process plants. Federal and state regulations aiming at controlling these emissions require refineries and petrochemical plants in the United States to implement a Leak Detection and Repair Program (LDAR). The current regulatory work practice, U.S. Environment Protection Agency Method 21, requires designated components to be monitored individually at regular intervals. The annual costs of these LDAR programs in a typical refinery can exceed US$1,000,000. Previous studies have shown that a majority of controllable fugitive emissions come from a very small fraction of components. The Smart LDAR program aims to find cost-effective methods to monitor and reduce emissions from these large leakers. Optical gas imaging has been identified as one such technology that can help achieve this objective. This paper discusses a refinery evaluation of an instrument based on backscatter absorption gas imaging technology. This portable camera allows an operator to scan components more quickly and image gas leaks in real time. During the evaluation, the instrument was able to identify leaking components that were the source of 97% of the total mass emissions from leaks detected. More than 27,000 components were monitored. This was achieved in far less time than it would have taken using Method 21. In addition, the instrument was able to find leaks from components that are not required to be monitored by the current LDAR regulations. The technology principles and the parameters that affect instrument performance are also discussed in the paper.     

Is adaptive management helping to solve fisheries problems?

Adaptive management has been widely recommended as a way to deal with extreme uncertainty in natural resource and environmental decision making. The core concept in adaptive management is that policy choices should be treated as deliberate, large-scale experiments; hence, policy choice should be treated at least partly as a problem of scientific experimental design. There have now been upwards of 100 case studies where attempts were made to apply adaptive management to issues ranging from restoration of endangered desert fish species to protection of the Great Barrier Reef. Most of these cases have been failures in the sense that no experimental management program was ever implemented, and there have been serious problems with monitoring programs in the handful of cases where an experimental plan was implemented. Most of the failures can be traced to three main institutional problems: i) lack of management resources for the expanded monitoring needed to carry out large-scale experiments; ii) unwillingness by decision makers to admit and embrace uncertainty in making policy choices; and iii) lack of leadership in the form of individuals willing to do all the hard work needed to plan and implement new and complex management programs.     

Bioaccumulation of anthropogenic contaminants by detritivorous fish in the Río de la Plata estuary: 2-Polychlorinated biphenyls

The temporal variability and bioaccumulation dynamics of individual PCBs were studied in a detritivorous fish (Sábalo: Prochilodus lineatus) collected from 1999 to 2005 in the polluted Buenos Aires coastal area. Fish muscles contain high concentrations of total PCBs (11+/-7.2, 4.6+/-3.4 or 19+/-13 microg g(-1), dry, fresh and lipid weight, respectively) reflecting chronic bioaccumulation from sewage-industrial particulates. On a temporal basis, lipid normalized PCBs concentrations peaked by the end of 2001-2002 coincident with the rainiest period over the last four decades and shortly after PCB prohibition in the country, reflecting massive discharges to the coastal ecosystem. PCB composition in fish muscles show a prevailing contribution of hexachlorobiphenyls (35+/-4.2%), followed by hepta (23+/-3.0%), penta (20+/-3.6%), tri-tetra (16+/-4.8%) and minor proportions of octa-decachlorobiphenyls (5.7+/-3.1%) similar to an Aroclor 1242-1254-1260 1:2:4 mixture. During 2001-2002 maxima fish showed an enrichment in tri-tetrachlorobiphenyls ( approximately 1242-1254-1260 1:1:1 mixture) denoting a fresher signature. Fish/settling material lipid-organic carbon accumulation factors (BSAFs: 2.4-46, average: 21+/-10) plotted against kow showed a parabolic trend (BSAFs=-0.38 log kow2 + 5.16 log kow -15.85; R2=0.46) maximizing at hexa, hepta and octachlorobiphenyl 203 with reduced bioaccumulation of a few hepta (170, 191) and most octa-decachlorobihenyls suggesting limited intestinal absorption.