Modeling the Impacts of Two Bark Beetle Species Under a Warming Climate in the Southwestern USA: Ecological and Economic Consequences

Predicted climate warming is expected to have profound effects on bark beetle population dynamics in the southwestern United States. Temperature-mediated effects may include increases in developmental rates, generations per year, and changes in habitat suitability. As a result, the impacts of Dendroctonus frontalis and Dendroctonus mexicanus on forest resources are likely subject to amplification. To assess the implications of such change, we evaluated the generations per year of these species under three climate scenarios using a degree-day development model. We also assessed economic impacts of increased beetle outbreaks in terms of the costs of application of preventative silvicultural treatments and potential economic revenues forgone. Across the southwestern USA, the potential number of beetle generations per year ranged from 1–3+ under historical climate, an increase of 2–4+ under the minimal warming scenario and 3–5+ under the greatest warming scenario. Economic benefits of applying basal area reduction treatments to reduce forest susceptibility to beetle outbreaks ranged from 7.75/ha (NM) to7.75/ha (NM) to 95.69/ha (AZ) under historical conditions, and 47.96/ha (NM) to47.96/ha (NM) to 174.58/ha (AZ) under simulated severe drought conditions. Basal area reduction treatments that reduce forest susceptibility to beetle outbreak result in higher net present values than no action scenarios. Coupled with other deleterious consequences associated with beetle outbreaks, such as increased wildfires, the results suggest that forest thinning treatments play a useful role in a period of climate warming.     

Leaf structural diversity is related to hydraulic capacity in tropical rain forest trees

The hydraulic resistance of the leaf (R1) is a major bottleneck in the whole plant water transport pathway and may thus be linked with the enormous variation in leaf structure and function among tropical rain forest trees. A previous study found that R1 varied by an order of magnitude across 10 tree species of Panamanian tropical lowland rain forest. Here, correlations were tested between R1 and 24 traits relating to leaf venation and mesophyll structure, and to gross leaf form. Across species, R1 was related to both venation architecture and mesophyll structure. R1 was positively related to the theoretical axial resistivity of the midrib, determined from xylem conduit numbers and dimensions, and R1 was negatively related to venation density in nine of 10 species. R1 was also negatively related to both palisade mesophyll thickness and to the ratio of palisade to spongy mesophyll. By contrast, numerous leaf traits were independent of R1, including area, shape, thickness, and density, demonstrating that leaves can be diverse in gross structure without intrinsic trade-offs in hydraulic capacity. Variation in both R1-linked and R1-independent traits related strongly to regeneration irradiance, indicating the potential importance of both types of traits in establishment ecology.     

Midnight at the oasis: does restoration change the rigs-to-reefs debate in the North Sea?

ABSTRACT

In the North Sea, many oil and gas fields will reach the end of their productivity and their associated structures will be decommissioned. OSPAR decision 98/3 prescribes removal of all disused offshore structures as the only acceptable decommissioning option. This policy is the legacy of the 1995 Brent Spar incident, which resulted in the current dominant discourse of ‘Hands off the Oceans,’ ruling out the conversion of oil and gas rigs into artificial reefs (Rigs-to-Reefs (RtR)). The shift from a conservation to a restoration paradigm could open up the RtR debate. In this paper, a discourse analysis is carried out to discern whether and how ideas about RtR and ecosystem restoration are articulated to challenge the dominant ‘Hands off the Oceans’ discourse and thereby bring about change in North Sea decommissioning policy. A discourse analytic framework is applied to elucidate whether an ‘RtR as Restoration’ discourse can be distinguished and how competing claims are presented in the various storylines. Our analysis shows an ‘RtR as Restoration’ discourse, consisting of four different storylines. Given the fragmented nature of this discourse, the ‘RtR as Restoration’ discourse will not overcome the dominant ‘Hands off the Oceans’ discourse.     

LAKE SUPERIOR REGULATION EFFECTS

ABSTRACT: The outflows of Lake Superior through the St. Marys River have been modified from natural conditions, initially by the construction of engineering works, such as bridges, and later by the construction of control works and the regulation of the lake. For all practical purposes, the period from 1860 to 1887 represents the natural river conditions. During the period 1888-1900 the regimen was modified by the construction of the International Railroad Bridge and the Chandler-Dunbar Power Canal. In 1901 construction began on the compensating works. Following the completion of the compensating works in August 1921, the Lake Superior outflows were regulated in accordance with the Orders of Approval, 26 and 27 May 1914. A hydrologic response model was developed to simulate the natural Lake Superior regime. The model was run for the 1860–1975 period to simulate natural Lake Superior levels and outflows. The simulated levels were compared with the recorded levels to determine the effect of regulation. It was found that regulation has resulted in a rise in Lake Superior water levels. The simulated natural outflows for the period from 1937 to 1975 were run through the Great Lakes hydrologic response model to analyze the regulation effects on Lakes Michigan-Huron, St. Clair, and Erie. The results show no long-term bias due to regulation.     

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS UNCERTAINTY FOR WATER RESOURCES IN THE SAN JOAQUIN RIVER BASIN,CALIFORNIA1

ABSTRACT: A climate change impacts assessment for water resources in the San Joaquin River region of California is presented. Regional climate projections are based on a 1 percent per year CO₂ increase relative to late 20th Century CO₂ conditions. Two global projections of this CO₂ increase scenario are considered (HadCM2 and PCM) during two future periods (2010 to 2039 and 2050 to 2079). HadCM2 projects faster warming than PCM. HadCM2 and PCM project wetter and drier conditions, respectively, relative to present climate. In the HadCM2 case, there would be increased reservoir inflows, increased storage limited by existing capacity, and increased releases for deliveries and river flows. In the PCM case, there would be decreased reservoir inflows, decreased storage and releases, and decreased deliveries. Impacts under either projection case cannot be regarded as more likely than the other. Most of the impacts uncertainty is attributable to the divergence in the precipitation projections. The range of assessed impacts is too broad to guide selection of mitigation projects. Regional planning agencies can respond by developing contingency strategies for these cases and applying the methodology herein to evaluate a broader set of CO₂ scenarios, land use projections, and operational assumptions. Improved agency access to climate projection information is necessary to support this effort.     

REAL-TIME MANAGEMENT OF WATER QUALITY IN THE SAN JOAQUIN RWER BASIN,CALIFORNIA1

ABSTRACT: In the San Joaquin River Basin, California, a realtime water quality forecasting model was developed to help improve the management of saline agricultural and wetland drainage to meet water quality objectives. Predicted salt loads from the water quality forecasting model, SJRIODAY, were consistently within ± 11 percent of actual, within ± 14 percent for seven-day forecasts, and within ± 26 percent for 14-day forecasts for the 16- month trial period. When the 48 days dominated by rainfall/runoff events were eliminated from the data set, the error bar decreased to ± 9 percent for the model and ± 11 percent and ± 17 percent for the seven-day and 14-day forecasts, respectively. Constraints on the use of the model for salinity management on the San Joaquin River include the number of entities that control or influence water quality and the lack of a centralized authority to direct their activities. The lack of real-time monitoring sensors for other primary constituents of concern, such as selenium and boron, limits the application of the model to salinity at the present time. A case study describes wetland drainage releases scheduled to coincide with high river flows and significant river assimilative capacity for salt loads.