Clean Air Corridors: A Geographic and

Meteorological factors, pollutant emissions, and geographic regions related to transport of low optical extinction coefficient air to Grand Canyon National Park were examined. Back trajectories were generated by two models, the Atmospheric Transport and Dispersion Model (ATAD) and an approach using the Nested Grid Model output for a Lagrangian particle transport model (NGM/ CAPITA). Meteorological information along the trajectories was analyzed for its relationship to visibility at the Grand Canyon. Case studies considered days with anomalously clean air from the southwest and dirty air from the northwest. Clean air was most frequently from the north and northwest, rarely from the south. Low emissions, high ventilation and washout by precipitation was associated with clean air. All clean days with transport from the Los Angeles area had upper-level low pressure over the region with high ventilation and usually abundant precipitation. The dirtiest days with transport from the northwest were affected by forest fires.     

A Preliminary Look at Source-Receptor Relationships in the Texas-Mexico Border Area

ABSTRACT

Several factors have recently caused visibility impairment at Big Bend National Park, TX, to be of interest. Analyses of historical data collected there have shown that visibility is poorer and fine particle concentrations are higher at Big Bend than at other monitored Class I areas in the western United States. In addition, air masses frequently arrive there after crossing Mexico, where emissions are not well known. During September and October 1996, a field study was undertaken to begin examining the aerosol, visibility, and meteorology on both sides of the border. Results indicate that, during the study, the largest fractions of fine mass and light extinction at Big Bend were due to sulfates and the trace elements most closely associated with sulfate particles were Na and Se. Based on back trajectory modeling and the spatial, temporal, and inter-species relationships in the fine particle concentrations measured during the study, sulfates arrived at the park from both Mexico and the United States. Se was higher in Texas than in Northern Mexico, while V, Pb, Zn, Ni, and Mn were on average much higher in Mexico.     

Directional biases in back trajectories caused by model and input data

Back trajectory analyses are often used for source attribution estimates in visibility and other air quality studies. Several models and gridded meteorological datasets are readily available for generation of trajectories. The Big Bend Regional Aerosol and Visibility Observational (BRAVO) tracer study of July to October 1999 provided an opportunity to evaluate trajectory methods and input data against tracer concentrations, particulate data, and other source attribution techniques. Results showed evidence of systematic biases between the results of different back trajectory model and meteorological input data combinations at Big Bend National Park during the BRAVO. Most of the differences were because of the choice of meteorological data used as input to the trajectory models. Different back trajectories also resulted from the choice of trajectory model, primarily because of the different mechanisms used for vertical placement of the trajectories. No single model or single meteorological data set was found to be superior to the others, although rawinsonde data alone are too sparse in this region to be used as the only input data, and some combinations of model and input data could not be used to reproduce known attributions of tracers and simulated sulfate.     

Evaluating the Effect of a Mechanical Adjunct to Improve the Installation of Child Restraint Systems to Vehicles

Objectives: We explored if an alternative CRS design that utilized a mechanical adjunct to amplify the force applied to the adult seat belt (intervention CRS) results in more accurate and secure attachment between the CRS and the vehicle compared to similar CRS models that use LATCH or the existing adult seat belt. We conducted three separate studies to address this question and additionally explored: (1) the contribution of prior CRS installation experience (Study 1), (2) the value-added of CRS labeling (Study 2), and (3) paper-based vs. video instructions (Study 3).

Methods: In Studies 1 and 2 we assessed a forward facing combination CRS design (intervention CRS) compared to a commercially available LATCH equipped model (control CRS) and in Study 3 we conducted a similar study using a convertible model of both the intervention and control CRS. Participants installed both CRS in a contemporary minivan and could choose which type of attachment to use for the control CRS (LATCH or seat belt); order of installation was counter-balanced. Evaluators systematically examined installations for accuracy and security.

Results: Study 1: A greater proportion of participants in both the experienced and inexperienced groups was able to securely install the intervention CRS compared to the control CRS: (45% vs. 16%, p =.0001 for experienced) and (37% vs. 6%, p =.003 for inexperienced). No differences between the CRS were observed for accuracy of installation in either user group. Study 2: A greater proportion of participants were able to securely install the enhanced intervention CRS compared to the control CRS: (62% vs. 9%, p =.001). The intervention CRS demonstrated reduced installation accuracy: (30% vs. 61%, p =.001). Study 3: A greater proportion of participants was able to securely install the intervention CRS compared to the control CRS: 79% vs. 66% p =.03, but this effect was smaller than in the previous studies. Participants were less likely to achieve an accurate installation with the intervention CRS compared to the control CRS: 54% vs. 79%, p =.004. Common accuracy errors in each study included twisting or misrouting the seatbelt when installing the intervention CRS.

Conclusions: Our results suggest that novel CRS designs that utilize mechanical advantage to facilitate attachment of the CRS to the vehicle result in a tighter installation compared to LATCH equipped models, but an increase in accuracy errors occurred.     

Shifts in coral community structures following cyclone and red tide disturbances within the Gulf of Oman (United Arab Emirates)

This study documents the effects of two consecutive disturbances on coral community structures in the Gulf of Oman (United Arab Emirates); Cyclone Gonu in June 2007 and the Cochlodinium polykrikoides harmful algal bloom (HAB) that persisted from August 2008 until May 2009. Coral cover, colony densities, size class frequency distributions, and geometric growth rates derived from size class transition probability matrices were used to assess the post-Gonu and post-HAB recovery trajectories at four sites. The net effects of these disturbances were fourfold: (i) storm damage caused >50% losses of live branching and tabular coral cover by fragmentation and dislodgment of pocilloporid and acroporid colonies; (ii) Pocillopora damicornis colonies that survived the cyclone experienced mass mortality during the first 3?months of the HAB, resulting in localized extirpation of this species; (iii) variable Acropora mortality during the HAB indicated individual colony, rather than taxa-wide, susceptibility; and (iv) massive colony coral taxa were resistant to both disturbances.     

Human drivers,biophysical changes,and climatic variation affecting contemporary cropping proportions in the northern prairie of the U.S

Grassland to cropland conversion in the northern prairie of the United States has been a topic of recent land use change studies. Within this region more corn and soybeans are grown now (2017) than in the past, but most studies to date have not examined multi-decadal trends and the synergistic web of socio-ecological driving forces involved, opting instead for short-term analyses and easily targeted agents of change. This paper examines the coalescing of biophysical and socioeconomic driving forces that have brought change to the agricultural landscape of this region between 1980 and 2013. While land conversion has occurred, most of the region’s cropland in 2013 had been previously cropped by the early 1980s. Furthermore, the agricultural conditions in which crops were grown during those three decades have changed considerably because of non-biophysical alterations to production practices and changing agricultural markets. Findings revealed that human drivers played more of a role in crop change than biophysical changes, that blending quantitative and qualitative methods to tell a more complete story of crop change in this region was difficult because of the synergistic characteristics of the drivers involved, and that more research is needed to understand how farmers make crop choice decisions.     

Reconciliation and interpretation of the Big Bend National Park light extinction source apportionment: results from the Big Bend Regional Aerosol and Visibility Observational Study--part II

The recently completed Big Bend Regional Aerosol and Visibility Observational (BRAVO) Study focused on particulate sulfate source attribution for a 4-month period from July through October 1999. A companion paper in this issue by Schichtel et al. describes the methods evaluation and results reconciliation of the BRAVO Study sulfate attribution approaches. This paper summarizes the BRAVO Study extinction budget assessment and interprets the attribution results in the context of annual and multiyear causes of haze by drawing on long-term aerosol monitoring data and regional transport climatology, as well as results from other investigations. Particulate sulfates, organic carbon, and coarse mass are responsible for most of the haze at Big Bend National Park, whereas fine particles composed of light-absorbing carbon, fine soils, and nitrates are relatively minor contributors. Spring and late summer through fall are the two periods of high-haze levels at Big Bend. Particulate sulfate and carbonaceous compounds contribute in a similar magnitude to the spring haze period, whereas sulfates are the primary cause of haze during the late summer and fall period. Atmospheric transport patterns to Big Bend vary throughout the year, resulting in a seasonal cycle of different upwind source regions contributing to its haze levels. Important sources and source regions for haze at Big Bend include biomass smoke from Mexico and Central America in the spring and African dust during the summer. Sources of sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions in Mexico, Texas, and in the Eastern United States all contribute to Big Bend haze in varying amounts over different times of the year, with a higher contribution from Mexican sources in the spring and early summer, and a higher contribution from U.S. sources during late summer and fall. Some multiple-day haze episodes result from the influence of several source regions, whereas others are primarily because of emissions from a single source region.     

Parcels versus pixels: modeling agricultural land use across broad geographic regions using parcel-based field boundaries

Land use and land cover (LULC) change occurs at a local level within contiguous ownership and management units (parcels), yet LULC models primarily use pixel-based spatial frameworks. The few parcel-based models being used overwhelmingly focus on small geographic areas, limiting the ability to assess LULC change impacts at regional to national scales. We developed a modified version of the Forecasting Scenarios of land use change model to project parcel-based agricultural change across a large region in the United States Great Plains. A scenario representing an agricultural biofuel scenario was modeled from 2012 to 2030, using real parcel boundaries based on contiguous ownership and land management units. The resulting LULC projection provides a vastly improved representation of landscape pattern over existing pixel-based models, while simultaneously providing an unprecedented combination of thematic detail and broad geographic extent. The conceptual approach is practical and scalable, with potential use for national-scale projections.