Near-term ecological forecasting for dynamic aeroconservation of migratory birds

Near-term ecological forecasting has the potential to mitigate negative impacts of human modifications on wildlife by directing efficient action through relevant and timely predictions. We used the U.S. avian migration system to highlight ecological forecasting applications for aeroconservation. We used millions of observations from 143 weather surveillance radars to construct and evaluate a migration forecasting system for nocturnal bird migration over the contiguous United States. We identified the number of nights of mitigation required to reduce the risk of aerial hazards to 50% of avian migrants passing a given area in spring and autumn based on dynamic forecasts of migration activity. We also investigated an alternative approach, that is, employing a fixed conservation strategy based on time windows that historically capture 50% of migratory passage. In practice, during both spring and autumn, dynamic forecasts required fewer action nights compared with fixed window selection at all locations (spring: mean of 7.3 more alert days; fall: mean of 12.8 more alert days). This pattern resulted in part from the pulsed nature of bird migration captured in the radar data, where the majority (54.3%) of birds move on 10% of a migration season's nights. Our results highlight the benefits of near-term ecological forecasting and the potential advantages of dynamic mitigation strategies over static ones, especially in the face of increasing risks to migrating birds from light pollution, wind energy infrastructure, and collisions with structures.     

Calibration and Validation of ADAPT and SWAT for Field‐Scale Runoff Prediction1

Abstract: The pollutant reduction possible with a given agricultural best‐management practice (BMP) is complex and site‐specific. Water‐quality models can evaluate BMPs, but model results are often limited by the lack of calibrated parameters for a given BMP. This study calibrated runoff prediction of two models (ADAPT and SWAT) for individual field plots having one till and two no‐till management practices. The factors used for runoff calibration were curve number II (CN_II) and saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ksat) for ADAPT, and CN_II, Ksat, and available water capacity for SWAT. Results were evaluated using coefficient of determination (R²), Nash‐Sutcliffe efficiency (E_f), root‐mean square error, median‐based E_f, and sign tests. Results indicated that for ADAPT, the best‐fit CN_II was 66 for the NT/SB (no‐till plot with surface‐broadcast fertilizer) treatment, 68 for the NT/DB (no‐till with deep‐banded fertilizer) treatment, and 70 for the tilled plot, whereas for SWAT the best‐fit CN_II was much higher, 86, for all treatments. Neither agreed with the textbook CN_II, 78, for sorghum in silty clay loam soil. The best‐fit model parameters for both runoff calibration phases had excellent correlation to monthly totals and moderate correlation to individual events.     

Quantifying Tradeoffs Associated with Hydrologic Environmental Flow Methods

Freshwater management requires balancing and tradingoff multiple objectives, many of which may be competing. Ecological needs for freshwater are often described in terms of environmental flow recommendations (e.g., minimum flows), and there are many techniques for developing these recommendations, which range from hydrologic rules to multidisciplinary analyses supported by large teams of subject matter experts. Although hydrologic rules are well acknowledged as overly simplified, these techniques remain the state‐of‐the‐practice in many locations. This article seeks to add complexity to the application of these techniques by studying the emergent properties of hydrologic environmental flow methodologies. Two hydrologic rules are applied: minimum flow criteria and sustainability boundaries. Objectives and metrics associated with withdrawal rate and similarity to natural flow regimes are used to tradeoff economic and environmental needs, respectively, over a range of flow thresholds and value judgments. A case study of hypothetical water withdrawals on the Middle Oconee River near Athens, Georgia is applied to demonstrate these techniques. For this case study, sustainability boundaries emerge as preferable relative to both environmental and economic outcomes. Methods applied here provide a mechanism for examining the role of stakeholder values and tradeoffs in application of hydrologic rules for environmental flows.     

Model‐Based Nitrogen and Phosphorus (Nutrient) Criteria for Large Temperate Rivers: 1. Model Development and Application

An initial inquiry into model‐based numeric nitrogen and phosphorus (nutrient) criteria for large rivers is presented. Field data collection and associated modeling were conducted on a segment of the lower Yellowstone River in the northwestern United States to assess the feasibility of deriving numeric nutrient criteria using mechanistic water‐quality models. The steady‐state one‐dimensional model QUAL2K and a transect‐based companion model AT2K were calibrated and confirmed against low‐flow conditions at a time when river loadings, water column chemistry, and diurnal indicators were approximately steady state. Predictive simulation was then implemented via nutrient perturbation to evaluate the steady‐state and diurnal response of the river to incremental nutrient additions. In this first part of a two‐part series, we detail our modeling approach, model selection, calibration and confirmation, sensitivity analysis, model outcomes, and associated uncertainty. In the second part (Suplee et al., 2015) we describe the criteria development process using the tools described herein. Both articles provide a fundamental understanding of the process required to develop site‐specific numeric nutrient criteria using models in applied regulatory settings.     

The legacy of leaded gasoline in bottom sediment of small rural reservoirs

The historical and ongoing lead (Pb) contamination caused by the 20th-century use of leaded gasoline was investigated by an analysis of bottom sediment in eight small rural reservoirs in eastern Kansas, USA. For the reservoirs that were completed before or during the period of maximum Pb emissions from vehicles (i.e., the 1940s through the early 1980s) and that had a major highway in the basin, increased Pb concentrations reflected the pattern of historical leaded gasoline use. For at least some of these reservoirs, residual Pb is still being delivered from the basins. There was no evidence of increased Pb deposition for the reservoirs completed after the period of peak Pb emissions and (or) located in relatively remote areas with little or no highway traffic. Results indicated that several factors affected the magnitude and variability of Pb concentrations in reservoir sediment including traffic volume, reservoir age, and basin size. The increased Pb concentrations at four reservoirs exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency threshold-effects level (30.2 mg kg(-1)) and frequently exceeded a consensus-based threshold-effects concentration (35.8 mg kg(-1)) for possible adverse biological effects. For two reservoirs it was estimated that it will take at least 20 to 70 yr for Pb in the newly deposited sediment to return to baseline (pre-1920s) concentrations (30 mg kg(-1)) following the phase out of leaded gasoline. The buried sediment with elevated Pb concentrations may pose a future environmental concern if the reservoirs are dredged, the dams are removed, or the dams fail.     

The Influence of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation on Annual Floods in the Rivers of Western Canada

We analyzed annual peak flow series from 127 naturally flowing or naturalized streamflow gauges across western Canada to examine the impact of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) on annual flood risk, which has been previously unexamined in detail. Using Spearman's rank correlation ρ and permutation tests on quantile‐quantile plots, we show that higher magnitude floods are more likely during the negative phase of the PDO than during the positive phase (shown at 38% of the stations by Spearman's rank correlations and at 51% of the stations according to the permutation tests). Flood frequency analysis (FFA) stratified according to PDO phase suggests that higher magnitude floods may also occur more frequently during the negative PDO phase than during the positive phase. Our results hold throughout much of this region, with the upper Fraser River Basin, the Columbia River Basin, and the North Saskatchewan River Basin particularly subject to this effect. Our results add to other researchers' work questioning the wholesale validity of the key assumption in FFA that the annual peak flow series at a site is independently and identically distributed. Hence, knowledge of large‐scale climate state should be considered prior to the design and construction of infrastructure.     

Analysis of organic nitrogen removal in municipal wastewater by reverse osmosis

The results of a pilot study that was conducted to determine the total nitrogen removal by the reverse osmosis process are presented. The organic nitrogen removal rates are compared with removals observed from three full-scale reverse osmosis facilities and four pilot studies. The results of this analysis suggest that organic nitrogen removal is variable and that reverse osmosis may not consistently produce total nitrogen levels less than 1.0 mg/L without additional treatment. Three hypotheses to explain the variability in organic nitrogen removal in the different data sets are presented.     

Arsenic in North Carolina: public health implications

Arsenic is a known human carcinogen and relevant environmental contaminant in drinking water systems. We set out to comprehensively examine statewide arsenic trends and identify areas of public health concern. Specifically, arsenic trends in North Carolina private wells were evaluated over an eleven-year period using the North Carolina Department of Health and Human Services database for private domestic well waters. We geocoded over 63,000 domestic well measurements by applying a novel geocoding algorithm and error validation scheme. Arsenic measurements and geographical coordinates for database entries were mapped using Geographic Information System techniques. Furthermore, we employed a Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) geostatistical framework, which accounts for geocoding error to better estimate arsenic values across the state and identify trends for unmonitored locations. Of the approximately 63,000 monitored wells, 7712 showed detectable arsenic concentrations that ranged between 1 and 806 μg/L. Additionally, 1436 well samples exceeded the EPA drinking water standard. We reveal counties of concern and demonstrate a historical pattern of elevated arsenic in some counties, particularly those located along the Carolina terrane (Carolina slate belt). We analyzed these data in the context of populations using private well water and identify counties for targeted monitoring, such as Stanly and Union Counties. By spatiotemporally mapping these data, our BME estimate revealed arsenic trends at unmonitored locations within counties and better predicted well concentrations when compared to the classical kriging method. This study reveals relevant information on the location of arsenic-contaminated private domestic wells in North Carolina and indicates potential areas at increased risk for adverse health outcomes.     

Natural area visitors' place meaning and place attachment ascribed to a marine setting

Investigations of place have often focused on either place meaning (utilizing interpretive designs) or place attachment (using quantitative measures). Rarely have researchers explored the association between place meaning and place attachment. Hence, this investigation was designed to explore how individuals' attachment to a natural environment is reflected in their depictions of why the resource is meaningful.