Will Observation Error and Biases Ruin the Use of Simple Extinction Models?

Abstract: Estimating the risk of extinction for populations of endangered species is an important component of conservation biology. These estimates must be made from data that contain both environmental noise in the year-to-year transitions in population size (so-called "process error"), random errors in sampling, and possible biases in sampling ( both forms of observation errors). To determine how much faith to place in estimated extinction rates, it is important to know how sensitive they are to observation error. We used three simple, commonly employed models of population dynamics to generate simulated population time series. We then combined random observation error or systematic biases with those data, fit models to the time series data, and observed how close the extinction dynamics of the fitted models compared with the dynamics of the underlying models. We found that systematic biases in sampling rarely affected estimates of extinction risk. We also found that even moderate levels of random observation error do not significantly affect extinction estimates except over a small range of process errors, corresponding to the region where extinction risk is most uncertain. With more substantial sampling error, estimates of extinction risk degraded rapidly. Field census techniques for a variety of taxa often involve observation errors within ±32% of actual population sizes. For typical time series used in conservation, therefore, we often may not need to be overly concerned about observation errors as an extra source of imperfection in our estimated extinction rates.     

Demographic Forecasting in Koala Conservation

Abstract: The koala currently needs conservation intervention. There is clear evidence of decline in many populations, but the existence of other stable or expanding populations offers the possibility of a variety of creative solutions to their conservation problems. The 1998 National Koala Conservation Strategy emphasizes the need to obtain demographic information and to use this information to assess management options for koalas. We need accurate diagnoses of the status of koala populations and forecasts of their demographic future with and without particular management actions. In a qualitative fashion, this process has been undertaken many times on a local and national scale. Quantitative demographic forecasting tools are increasingly available, and koala management could benefit from their application both at the scale of individual populations and more broadly. There is already a considerable body of suitable data on the dispersal, effects of normal and catastrophic environmental variation on reproduction and survival, and on the effects of habitat change. Demographic forecasting, however, is hampered because the full suite of information is rarely available from a single population. In two Queensland populations, retrospective population viability analyses provided forecasts that were in agreement with observed population trends. Work is needed to determine whether data from one population can be applied to other populations. Models can then be developed to make projections at a multipopulation level on the basis of local population dynamics and dispersal. Certain koala populations, because of their long history of study, offer the opportunity to test demographic models retrospectively. These tests will not only aid in fine-tuning the models for koala biology and data but will also assist with the more general process of validating the models.     

Poisoned plusiines: toxicity of milkweed latex and cardenolides to some generalist caterpillars

Summary. Larvae of Trichoplusia ni Hübner (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) that ingested latex from Asclepias curassavica L. (Asclepiadaceae) often regurgitated and convulsed with spasms before becoming immobile and unresponsive. Some larvae required over a day to recover sufficiently to feed. Latices from four other plant species in three families were all deterrent, but none caused detectable poisoning. The toxicity of A. curassavica latex was evidently due to cardenolides because pure cardenolides had similar effects when ingested by T. ni. Other species of noctuid caterpillars (Rachiplusia ou Guenée, Anagrapha falcifera Kirby, and Autographa precationis Guenée) sometimes also suffered spasms and temporary immobility when fed A. curassavica latex. A more distantly related noctuid, Spodoptera ornithogalli, was deterred by the latex, but showed no overt physiological responses at the dosage tested. T. ni larvae failed to develop on intact leaves of A. curassavica, on leaves with latex canals deactivated by midrib severance, and on excised leaves. Similarly, larvae reared on excised A. syriaca L. leaves to the final instar died when transferred to A. curassavica leaves with either intact or severed midribs. The final instar larvae sometimes suffered from spasms and immobility even when confined on leaves with depressurized canal systems. Evidently, cardenolides stored outside the latex system suffice to poison larvae. We conclude that cardenolides in A. curassavica have potent physiological effects on some generalist caterpillars and that the presence of these compounds both inside and outside laticifers effectively protects the plant. Received 30 June 1999; accepted 18 October 1999     

电磁环境对采后芒果的生理影响

系统研究了采后芒果在静电场,磁场,放电生成气环境下的生理变化。测试了呼吸速率,果体与果皮电解质渗出率,商品果率与病情指数等生理指标。研究结果表明,采后芒果在呼吸速率达到高峰之前电磁环境对其均有明显的作用,而在呼吸高峰之后,无明显影响。在我们设置的电磁环境参数中有几项显示保鲜作用。表１参６     

柚园间种作物及施用不同有机肥对土壤与柚果的影响

柚树间种短期经济作物在提高柚园经济效益的同时,还可提高土壤的有机质和N、P、K养分质量分数,改善柚园小区气候,增加有机肥来源。间种物残余体作为绿肥,可显著地提高柚果产量和质量。     

影响土壤中微生物体氮的因子

综述了影响土壤微生物体氮的因子,以及微生物体氮与可矿化氮之间的关系。着重讨论了土壤有机质、有机物料、氮肥、作物根系、土壤温度和湿度对微生物体氮的影响及研究进展;评价了土壤微生物体氮与可矿化氮的关系的研究结果。     

生产剩余与消费剩余：人与自然和谐的探索

人与自然的和谐是人类社会可持续发展的实践基础和核心议题。本文着重从“生产剩余”和“消费剩余”新的认识视觉 ,通过构建物流循环结构和剖析人与自然的相依关系 ,探索两者之间物质、能量转化的协同机理与和谐准则 ,进而提出了相应的实践对策。     

川东古代盐业开发对行政区划和城市分布的影响

盐是人类生活的必需品,盐的利用是人类发展史上的一大进步。以前在探讨早期人类活动以地关系时,主要关注温和的气候,宽阔的冲积平原或阶地、弃足的食物来源因素,极少考虑盐的重要性,这是历史学、考古学、地理学、经济的学的空白点。 和根据三峡库区的考古成果,结合对古盐井的考察研究后,认为：川东长江流域地区是井亍开发最早的区域,盐的利用与早期聚落的起源密切相关。手工业、商业从农业分离以后,越界 和为商品利润极高     

荆江分洪区1998年洪水转移调查分析

对荆江分洪区１９９８年洪水期间安全转移的调查表明,叶然有分洪预案,但实际转移时仍出现了相当程度的拥挤与混乱。完善分洪转移的组织与管理,已成为分洪区居民１９９８年转移后关注的焦点,分洪区居民普遍表现出对分洪洪水情不甚了解,通过各种方式开展有关洪水的宣伟,提高区内居民的防洪意识,是荆江分洪区未来防洪减灾的重点工作之一,由于是国家为保护更重要的地区而主动分洪。对分洪区历分洪蒙受的损失给预某种形式的补偿已