Spatio-temporal patterns in county-level incidence and reporting of Lyme disease in the northeastern United States, 1990–2000

We present an exploratory analysis of reported county-specific incidence of Lyme disease in the northeastern United States for the years 1990–2000. We briefly review the disease ecology of Lyme disease and the use of risk maps to describe local incidence as estimates of local risk of disease. We place the relevant elements of local environmental and ecological variables, local disease incidence, and (importantly) local disease reporting in a conceptual context to frame our analysis. We then apply hierarchical linear models of increasing complexity to summarize observed patterns in reported incidence, borrowing information across counties to improve local precision. We find areas of increasing incidence in the central northeastern Atlantic coast counties, increasing incidence branching to the north and west, and an area of fairly stable and slightly decreasing reported incidence in western New York.     

Western Land Managers will Need all Available Tools for Adapting to Climate Change,Including Grazing: A Critique of Beschta et al.

In a previous article, Beschta et al. (Environ Manag 51(2):474–491, 2013) argue that grazing by large ungulates (both native and domestic) should be eliminated or greatly reduced on western public lands to reduce potential climate change impacts. The authors did not present a balanced synthesis of the scientific literature, and their publication is more of an opinion article. Their conclusions do not reflect the complexities associated with herbivore grazing. Because grazing is a complex ecological process, synthesis of the scientific literature can be a challenge. Legacy effects of uncontrolled grazing during the homestead era further complicate analysis of current grazing impacts. Interactions of climate change and grazing will depend on the specific situation. For example, increasing atmospheric CO₂ and temperatures may increase accumulation of fine fuels (primarily grasses) and thus increase wildfire risk. Prescribed grazing by livestock is one of the few management tools available for reducing fine fuel accumulation. While there are certainly points on the landscape where herbivore impacts can be identified, there are also vast grazed areas where impacts are minimal. Broad scale reduction of domestic and wild herbivores to help native plant communities cope with climate change will be unnecessary because over the past 20–50 years land managers have actively sought to bring populations of native and domestic herbivores in balance with the potential of vegetation and soils. To cope with a changing climate, land managers will need access to all available vegetation management tools, including grazing.     

WATER EXCHANGES: TOOLS TO BEAT EL NIÑO CLIMATE VARIABILITY IN IRRIGATED AGRICULTURE1

ABSTRACT: Using a case study of the Yakima River Valley in Washington State, this paper shows that relatively simple tools can be used to forecast the impact of the El Niño phenomenon on water supplies to irrigated agriculture, that this information could be used to estimate the significantly shifted probability distribution of water shortages in irrigated agriculture during El Niño episodes, and that these shifted probabilities can be used to estimate the value of exchanges of water between crops to relieve some of the adverse consequences of such shortages under western water law. Further, recently devised water‐trading tools, while not completely free under western water law to respond to forecasted El Niño episodes (ocean circulation patterns), are currently being employed during declared drought to reduce the devastating effects of water shortages in junior water districts on high valued perennial crops. Additional institutional flexibility is needed to take full advantage of climate forecasting, but even current tools clearly could prove useful in controlling the effects of climate variability in irrigated agriculture. Analysis shows the significant benefit of temporarily transferring or renting water rights from low‐value to high‐value crops, based on El Niño forecasts.     

Modification of a full-scale sequencing batch reactor operational mode for biological nutrient removal.

Two biological nutrient removal modes, consisting of anaerobic, anoxic, and oxic sequences, were tested in a full-scale sequencing batch reactor. The modes, identified as BNR-S1 and BNR-S2, had average total nitrogen removals of 84 and 89%, respectively, for the months of August to October. Over the same period, total phosphorus removals for BNR-S1 and BNR-S2 were 88 and 87%, respectively. In contrast, total nitrogen and total phosphorus removals for the regular aerobic mode were 54.7 and 44.7%, respectively. When the wastewater temperature changed from approximately 20 to 15 degrees C in the winter months, total nitrogen and total phosphorus removals for BNR-S2 were reduced to 81 and 70%, respectively. Total nitrogen effluent concentrations were between 2.5 and 4 mg-N/L (at approximately 20 degrees C), while the effluent total phosphorus concentrations were between 1 and 2 mg/L. The BNR-S2 mode was found to require less energy per kilogram of soluble chemical oxygen demand removed than the regular and BNR-S1 modes.     

Pathology and failure in the design and implementation of adaptive management

The conceptual underpinnings for adaptive management are simple; there will always be inherent uncertainty and unpredictability in the dynamics and behavior of complex ecological systems as a result non-linear interactions among components and emergence, yet management decisions must still be made. The strength of adaptive management is in the recognition and confrontation of such uncertainty. Rather than ignore uncertainty, or use it to preclude management actions, adaptive management can foster resilience and flexibility to cope with an uncertain future, and develop safe to fail management approaches that acknowledge inevitable changes and surprises. Since its initial introduction, adaptive management has been hailed as a solution to endless trial and error approaches to complex natural resource management challenges. However, its implementation has failed more often than not. It does not produce easy answers, and it is appropriate in only a subset of natural resource management problems. Clearly adaptive management has great potential when applied appropriately. Just as clearly adaptive management has seemingly failed to live up to its high expectations. Why? We outline nine pathologies and challenges that can lead to failure in adaptive management programs. We focus on general sources of failures in adaptive management, so that others can avoid these pitfalls in the future. Adaptive management can be a powerful and beneficial tool when applied correctly to appropriate management problems; the challenge is to keep the concept of adaptive management from being hijacked for inappropriate use.     

Resilience and sustainable development: building adaptive capacity in a world of transformations

Emerging recognition of two fundamental errors underpinning past polices for natural resource issues heralds awareness of the need for a worldwide fundamental change in thinking and in practice of environmental management. The first error has been an implicit assumption that ecosystem responses to human use are linear, predictable and controllable. The second has been an assumption that human and natural systems can be treated independently. However, evidence that has been accumulating in diverse regions all over the world suggests that natural and social systems behave in nonlinear ways, exhibit marked thresholds in their dynamics, and that social-ecological systems act as strongly coupled, complex and evolving integrated systems. This article is a summary of a report prepared on behalf of the Environmental Advisory Council to the Swedish Government, as input to the process of the World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD) in Johannesburg, South Africa in 26 August 4 September 2002. We use the concept of resilience--the capacity to buffer change, learn and develop--as a framework for understanding how to sustain and enhance adaptive capacity in a complex world of rapid transformations. Two useful tools for resilience-building in social-ecological systems are structured scenarios and active adaptive management. These tools require and facilitate a social context with flexible and open institutions and multi-level governance systems that allow for learning and increase adaptive capacity without foreclosing future development options.     

The effect of opening windows on air change rates in two homes

More than 300 air change rate experiments were completed in two occupied residences: a two-story detached house in Redwood City, CA, and a three-story townhouse in Reston, VA. A continuous monitor was used to measure the decay of SF6 tracer gas over periods of 1-18 hr. Each experiment first included a measurement of the air change rate with all exterior doors and windows closed (State 0), then a measurement with the single change from State 0 conditions of opening one or more windows. The overall average State 0 air change rate was 0.37 air changes per hour (hr(-1)) (SD = 0.10 hr(-1); n = 112) for the California house and 0.41 hr(-1) (SD = 0.19 hr(-1); n = 203) for the Virginia house. Indoor/outdoor temperature differences appeared to be responsible for the variation at the Virginia house of 0.15-0.85 hr(-1) when windows were closed. Opening a single window increased the State 0 air change rate by an amount roughly proportional to the width of the opening, reaching increments as high as 0.80 hr(-1) in the California house and 1.3 hr(-1) in the Virginia house. Multiple window openings increased the air change rate by amounts ranging from 0.10 to 2.8 hr(-1) in the California house and from 0.49 to 1.7 hr(-1) in the Virginia house. Compared with temperature differences and wind effects, opening windows produced the greatest increase in the air change rates measured in both homes. Results of this study indicate the importance of occupant window-opening behavior on a home's air change rate and the consequent need to incorporate this factor when estimating human exposure to indoor air pollutants.